Running Total Assessment Pt1

Today's blog focuses on live betting results for JV MK2 Betting System achieved from February to March 2020.


We will go into more detail than published results, examining the up and downs, and looking at how a running total can change over a betting period.


The results below used the pre lockdown selection filters, and as racing returns to normality will gradually be put back in place.


The current filter set up is adjusted for the new race card post lockdown for JV MK2, RDB Dutch and RDB Straight.


I will go over June's results from when racing resumed, to show how we set up post lockdown for all strategies, and highlight changes applied to adjust to the new race schedule in my next blog post.


I'll move on to July as we finish this month, looking back to assess how we got on in more detail, and then prepare for another shift in race type as we head into August.


Each month I'll do a regular running total assessment for the strategies, dipping into races examining how the run of betting performed over time.


As mentioned in my previous blog post I'm keeping a close eye on the trends affecting racing, as Researcher is being continually broadened to include a wider spread of stats.


This is set up to capture alternate ways of betting and trading, and we will be exploiting the current race card from different angles very soon.


I will have more to share on this later in the month, as the goal is to head into August with a side by side option available to members, along with a trading option. All will be revealed and I will explain more closer to being available.


Today the focus is on the run of betting that returned +18 points profit for the JV MK2, from the 17th Feb to 16th March 2020.


During the same time period +15.74 points for RDB Straight banked, with -0.05 points for RDB Dutch. I'll include more detailed information on their running totals, and what to expect in the coming months for all services.



The stats above show a positive month for JV MK2 with an impressive strike rate, more winning days than losing, with a decent profit betting flat stakes per bet, as we do with all our strategies.


This does not paint the entire picture. Anyone looking to join or presently following the systems should know how the betting typically runs.


Especially when running fully automated betting systems, as you're literally handing over the betting process to a bot running on auto pilot.


If you set up correctly from the start and with the right expectations you have the best chance of success.


If we look at the graph below you can see at least six significant dips I've circled in red, this is where the balance dropped over the betting timeline. We can also see the steady upward green line of growth.




Following the JV MK2 across the ups and downs from the start of this betting period, and without changing your stakes rewarded us with a decent profit as shown, but it required planning on your part and patience with a long term view.


As you can see in the graph, and in most instances if entering as a new member along this timeline, even if joining at the start of one of the six dips highlighted above you would have ended the betting sequence in the black.



The first day of betting we had 7 losing bets in a row!


I can confirm that we lost members who joined on the 17th after this run of bets, nearly all of which went on to deactivate their betting bot and did not return, or they adjusted stakes down to a lot less than they'd opened up betting.


Approx 30% of people who'd joined in and around that week did this, which compared to other service providers after a bad day of results actually isn't too bad believe it or now.


Losing 7 points, or in my case £700 on day one of a new betting cycle isn't a great start by anyone's standards.


Considering I'd set my bank up with 1% per bet, and put in what I can afford and be comfortable with losing over the down periods, I took it in my stride as it's simply a bad day at the office.


I hate losing bets or runs where it takes a long while to recoup like anyone else obviously, it's just an obstacle in our way that can sometimes take time to get past.


If I had a crystal ball my balance would continually go up and up with no losing spells, and so would yours.


We know this isn't the case of course..


However, I do have a plan backed with years of data assessment, custom made online software that's taken months to create, and the confidence to bet with my own money while running these services for a large membership.


Which hopefully tells you something about the time and energy invested by Nigel and myself to make these services successful for you. I know some people expect the moon on a stick, but instead of this we promise to always do our best for you.



Anyway I digress as I'm editing this post later than expected, so bear with me.


You can see over the following three days above that the balance recovered the first losing day.


Then below how things can change quickly in betting, is an example of the frustrating week that followed.


With a run of wins and losses eventually ending just under 4 points down on opening balance.



The question at this point is, if you had started on the 21st Feb would you have persevered past this point?


I know most of my members would stick at it as they understand how these things work, plus they are set up with sensible staking, so I hope for information purposes this post is interesting.


For actual useful content this post is however more for all those members who maybe flit from service to service.


If we take a look at one of the days in particular that didn't go in our favour on the 25th Feb, we had 7 bets placed and just 1 winner.


Below we can examine the race results from the 25th Feb taken from Researcher.


This shows the race data expanded within the admin dashboard, and you can see the JV MK2 selections highlighted in pink.


Across the top you have some information we use as part of the initial selection foundation criteria, such as horse, jockey, trend rating type, book percentage info, Dutch profit, BSP, with some points tallying shown and qualifying data.


I will go in to Researcher more and how it's used to drive our strategies, but it's the position the horses finished in each race I'd like you to look at in tonight's blog.




4 from 7 of the qualifying bets finished in the place positions, showing the fine margins between winning and losing, and how close these selections can come to winning more often than not.


The criteria of selection that goes into making these automated bets is strict, and when they don't win they do typically come very close more often than not, which we'd hope would say a lot to followers of the service we're not backing donkeys most of the time.


That aside, I can confirm that we had more members leave after this weeks betting, or significantly reduce staking down to tiny bets after not setting up correctly to begin.


A lot of people join a betting service quite literally expecting to win all the time, even though I publish results showing this isn't the case, and it's not what we're about as it's impossible to win every day, week, month etc.


Unfortunately by cancelling or reducing to tiny stakes these members missed the following upward balance growth, as what came after this week was a series of decent winning days.


The turn of winning days pushed the balance and graph in the right direction for members who stuck with it, keeping their stakes as they set out from the offset.




We certainly will not win all the time as stated, it's about staying in the game.


With a sensible approach to long term automated betting we can all reap the rewards, and when growth periods occur recoup loses and elevate our betting banks to a new profit high.



RDB Straight over the same betting period demonstrates this very well.


The green line of growth runs on an upward steady trend, but I've also highlighted some significant losing periods circled in red needing to be weathered in order to end the bet cycle +15.75 points in profit.


The majority of the growth time was spent below the line of growth, going up and down before pushing higher.


RDB Straight in particular can be more volatile given the nature of the bets being typically at higher odds, and with multiple back bets in each race possible, but again the reward for having a plan from the opening gate and sticking at it are here to see.




RDB Dutch had basically a break even month after showing promise to finish in profit initially.


However, the same set up and planning is required to deal with all scenarios. I've highlighted above five significant dips where the balance dropped, and it would have been easy to quit and cancel the membership.


We ended this betting cycle recovering the losses, which is just as important as a win. We did it without any reaction or stake adjustments, it was just absorbed and managed on its own within the betting system.


It was a disappointing month for profits with RDB Dutch as it showed a lot more in the previous month. It's the recovery time on the losses that impressed me most, and gave enough encouragement for when profitable months arrive it will return a decent amount.


With this type of fixed liability betting it can take longer to recover a poor run of bets, however it proved it was possible, and again without delving in to each race I can inform you a lot of these losing bets where photo finishes, or down to freak incidents affecting the races.


They happen obviously, but we had a run of them in a cluster unfortunately with this strategy. I had no doubt it the bad luck would turn, and sure enough we got the right results in the end to get us back on track. It just required patience and letting the system run its course.


Summary


Before you begin running any betting system you should always allocate yourself a betting bank you're comfortable with.


Please do take note of this advice, as I have hopefully shown in these examples tonight not being set up right from the start, or betting with amounts you're not comfortable with, will without any question negatively affect your decision making.


This betting balance should always be an amount that if it were to be lost would not affect your life significantly.


It will piss you off losing it if the worst happened, but it's not going to break you if lost, ie bills could still be paid, you're not going to starve to death, the better half isn't going to leave with the kids and pets etc...


These things you need to put before your betting investments.


To be frank with you I only want serious members who have a sensible mindset to betting, and possess a longer term view.


You should be looking ahead planning for the worst, as this sets you up to achieve the best.


Even the top betting service providers and traders who are being truly honest will admit to tanking a betting investment numerous times before succeeding, and we've certainly had these moments to get to where we are today. That's a fact, and something we're very open about.


I now believe our betting systems are the most robust automated services available on the net.


If managed properly these strategies could be the most profitable investments we all have in our portfolio over the years to come. They will go up and down, then back up again and so on over time.


If using a percentage stake per bet approach, and if possible for extra caution a few points balances available in reserve, you are set up to succeed.


Let me explain what can happen if taking the wrong path before I wrap up this post tonight.


What I've seen with some members after joining unfortunately, is they will invest out of their comfort zone using an amount that will have a very bad impact on their lives if lost, hit a losing run as shown above that inevitably happens.


This leads to some panic, which then leads to fiddling with stakes, which means they miss out on the next run of wins to recoup losses and build the betting bank over time.


If they haven't then cancelled the service by this point, this will prompt a reaction to up the stake per bet, often to even higher than where they began to try and recover losses, which inevitably follows another run of losing bets as shown above, which are as we should all know by now are par for the course to reach eventual profits.


Unfortunately this will complete destroy the confidence of the member that's been adjusting stakes since day one, and they leave in a disappointed rage claiming the betting system does not work.


What can also happen which is even worse for me to take, is that someone joins, puts way too much on each bet compared to what they have as a start balance, so the percentage per bet is somewhere close to 10% - 30% of total investment.


This is with an amount of money that they definitely cannot afford to lose. If they hit a losing run early on they will instantly leave the service in a bad situation, and losing money they shouldn't have been betting with in the first place.


I've gone to lengths of phoning some members who've done this if I have a telephone number, when I've noticed the bet volumes and monitored new member decisions. Just to check things are set up correctly and stakes haven't been put on this high in error. It's not up to me what someone bets, but I only want people to enjoy the services and make money over an expected time period.


I have no control over who joins, but I think as a service provider I'm one of the only ones that goes out of my way to put people off joining. I don't just copy and paste a Gambleaware banner and leave it at that.


I have lengthy warnings on my product pages who the services may or may not suit.


I also post these blogs regularly covering this subject, so I know a lot of you are sick of reading this.


We also have member guidelines from the menu outlining this and more, plus in the set up PDF info there are details on what to expect with the systems, and never advertised as get rich quick schemes, always showing the graphs with sheets showing wins and losses.


I'm no angel and obviously want people to join that's a fact, so I post advertising content on social media for my site and services.


However, I've learned over the years what and when to post, and do not waste my time and money on all kinds of ads. I only want members who know from the start what to expect, and mostly I do very well attracting the right people.


I could go all out and scoop a gigantic membership of people interested in bagging the next big punt at the races etc etc, you know the type of site I mean, but I purposefully avoid this like the coronavirus.


Pretty much from day one I mostly avoided this member type, I've been very lucky with who's joined, and value the members I have and follow my services using sensible money management.


I do promise btw in my next running total and graph analysis blog post not to labour this point as much about positive money management, but with the shift in racing since lockdown, and reestablishing the services to run over this new race card, I wanted to emphasise the importance with some visual examples.


It took us a while to find our feet with automated betting, which you can read more in my previous blog posts if you'd like to find out how we got to where we are today.


As it's definitely not come without lessons learned along the way, both in what we do ourselves as service providers, and how we deliver these systems for our members now, we're a lot older and wiser.


We operate a more considered operation with Cloud Bet Bot, that's been specifically designed to steadily build the betting bank over a realistic time frame, and do so as safely as we consider feasibly possible.


In the next post I'll look at the June analysis, and what my predictions are for the remainder of July and August with RDB and JV MK2.


Thanks for reading


Ryan


#horseracing #betting #laybetting #back #betfair #exchange #bettingbot #automatedbetting #dutchbet #makemoneyonline #workathme #exponentialbet



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