In today's news update:
A brief explanation on the difference between exchange and BSP.
Sure Favs Foundation things to know.
The importance of setting up a correct points balance with staking examples.
The monthly star performing Automated Betting Strategies & one to watch.
Strategies yet to reach potential I've been working on.
In Play Bet Club.
The Difference Between Exchange & BSP
If you follow any of my automated betting strategies within the bot which place bets direct to the exchange instead of BSP, your results will depend on the odds you are matched in comparison to other members and what is reported on site.
The wins and losses will be exactly the same in all but one service option which I'll get to later, but your returns will be higher or lower depending on the odds you were matched.
This is because prices move on the exchange and at the time all bets are presented to Betfair by our software the money will fluctuate.
This is how the exchange works and it's a result of our bets, other Betfair users, traders, bots etc all affecting the race market.
The way we account for the fact bets affect odds and liquidity is to apply an offset which places bets within a range of odds, so this means as the prices go up and down with all the money on the exchange, the odds members receive will not be too high as a lay bet or too low as a back bet when placed.
Another thing we have added to combat this is the time of bet, which is placed as close to race time as possible to ensure there is plenty of money available on the prices.
However, if someone is placing very large sums of money as stake they may not be matched either fully or at all should they be opting for exchange betting instead of BSP.
If you're in that bracket I'd always suggest finding a service and option where the BSP version meets your goals and expected profit growth.
The UK Racing market is the most liquid compared to any other country and all of our betting is done in the UK using Betfair which is also the busiest betting exchange with the most money flowing through it.
There is nothing we can do to guarantee every member is matched at the same odds if using the exchange before a race commences instead of BSP.
It has pro's and con's as you will have periods where you are matched at reported results or higher, and overall this can contribute to a better line of profit growth over the months.
You will have the caveat of being matched lower on some back bets or higher on potential losing lay bets. All of which will affect your profit and loss numbers overall, and is something that needs to be accepted and factored in as it's simply the way the exchange works.
If I had a magic wand (and I don't but if I did) I'd ensure everyone got matched at the same price on the exchange, because personally I prefer it for running the strategies, and overall most show more profit using the exchange compared to BSP.
Also, BSP isn't for everyone given the bet amounts that are below the allowed BSP levels set by Betfair, meaning if your stake is below this you will have to select exchange within the bot anyway and not have a choice to use BSP.
Your bets would not be matched if you tried this below minimum bet amounts and BSP selected in the bot.
These are £2 minimum for backing and £10 liability for laying.
If you were following a betting service that sent you bets requiring manual placement, ie by email each day, and the provider reported having the bet placed at odds using a bookie or the Betfair exchange but not the starting price, you would have exactly the same thing to consider.
Worse in fact as our bets are placing in seconds and an email then time to place the bet etc takes a lot longer.
The bets would land in your inbox, you'd have to then place them as recommended, and the time difference would mean you receive different odds on either platform.
Betfair Starting Price (BSP) guarantee's reported results all match for each member, and this is why each service we operate has a BSP option available.
However, the services will also have a none BSP option which will be available and results are reported on the time of the bet being placed for these service options.
I sometimes do a lot better or worse than reported numbers as a price will fluctuate when our bets or other peoples are matched on the same or surrounding horses at the time bets are fired to the market, but that is just part of betting direct to the exchange.
Betting options that will only be exchange based only are lay betting using a fixed stake as Betfair only allows fixed liability lay bets using BSP.
Target Profit will always have to be exchange based given the nature of the bet, as it calculates what bet amounts are required pre race to achieve the target profit, and of course this could not be done at the start of the race as the BSP is unknown.
These bets are all calculated approximately a minute before a race is due to start when the markets are very liquid and we all have the best chance of being matched, and that is not a problem our members encounter. Even the high rollers using the exchange never email to say they haven't been matched.
It would be a very rare incident or something to do with Betfair having issues that may cause this given the way we have programmed the bot with the offset and bet timing, but we're talking tiny percentages over the space of a year it could happen, or if your stakes are astronomically high.
If a balance is set up correctly these things mean very little over the long stretch anyway and swing in roundabouts.
As in, some bets missed every blue moon could be winning bets that's correct but they could equally be losing bets avoided.
Given all the services that place bets a minute before start time this is an absolute rarity not to be matched.
For the single service starting after race start time the reason for not being matched would be the race started before all bets hit the Betfair market, and some members may have been matched whereas others not.
There is only one strategy option that operates one minute past post time which I'll cover next.
Sure Favs Foundation Things to Know
If you're not familiar with Sure Favs Foundation it's one of the automated strategies.
Working to a strict selection criteria like the other services it places a bet one minute past the official start time on the favourite.
The strategy takes advantage of information when the horses are over 90% of the time milling around at the start, with a strong market opinion forming with all kinds of information arriving that is not available often until past post time, this means we're able to make a steady profit over the months backing this way.
What this also means is when we reach the minus one minute mark and the bot sends the bets to Betfair to place for all members, it can mean some members will be left behind if the race jumps off within a window of approximately one second.
Not a very large window affecting us but nonetheless it does mean that we operate around a 90% bet placement mark on average for members who opt for the foundation option of Sure Favs.
The other two Main and High all place bets one minute pre race so there is never this problem, but on the flip side Sure Favs Foundation version is the most profitable overall.
The other two are popular and operate very well with a low drawdown showing a consistent profit, but I think the excitement of the bets being more often over a week, and going on so close to race time draws the extra attention for the foundation version.
The market is most liquid on the exchange due to the timing and it does very well even if you're only matched on approx 90% of the bets.
This can mean you miss some winners that's true, but you can also miss some losing bets, and with such a high percentage of bets being matched if the service makes a profit over the month you're in with a very high chance of being in profit, and in a lot of reported cases for the reasons explained more profit than I publish in the results.
It's something to be aware of though with Sure Favs Foundation that affects the Straight betting and Target Profit selections, so when you cross check your results factor this in. The average overall is 90% matched just with this one service, but we have month after month were members can be 100% matched.
My average in July was 93% matched on the bets and I still returned close to the reported results for the service using the exchange and BSP with straight selected.
Should you decide to run Sure Favs Foundation rest assured it's one of the top services and retains members due to the profit it's generated so far, and the way it selects horses close to the time they jump with the highest chance of winning makes it a unique betting strategy.
If opting for the Straight betting bet type you can of course select BSP, as once the bet is selected and fired to market by the system it is then recognised by Betfair, and it will be matched.
Often BSP bets will have a higher success rate and they tend to match closer to 95% of the time on average as they are not exchange dependant.
Given some members bet who below minimum Betfair required stake using our software as it allows any amount to be staked, this means an extra calculation is required by the bot which can add a second or two in to the mix, so another thing to bear in mind and why if betting using BSP at the minimum or above Betfair back stake it can increase match rate.
To find out more about Sure Favs and the Foundation version visit: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/sure-favs
Setting a Points Balance & Staking Examples
This is a topic I bang on about relentlessly as it's absolutely vital for long term success, and to achieve the same results I publish over the weeks, months, and years to come.
Instead of my usual lecture I'll give you a couple of examples of how you can set up a points balance, and from there you can email me and ask any questions if you have any.
We need more working examples and I'll do my best to rectify this. I will be adding a lot more information on this entire start to end process of finding one or more services, deciding to join and how much you want to put in and invest, then dividing this up accordingly to the recommended points start balances I publish on each service page.
There will be a complete video walkthrough included as soon as possible which will make this bullet proof, and to back this up either a points calculator or option within the bot to run according to recommended staking.
I'll leave it open for people to use their own ideas of staking as it is right now if they wish, as that is only fair and some people operate more proactive staking that works very well for them, but to add more layers of protection for new members, or any members who feel they haven't set up staking right, adding more tuition and tools will definitely help.
All my results are published according to one point per bet and with the recommended points allocation listed in the System Overview for each strategy. This is located under the result graphs on each strategy page.
If you need anymore examples of allocating points in the interim between me providing the extra information explained above, there is a useful section available in the FAQ under Money Management that also has examples.
Let's begin by looking at running four automated strategy options and one way of setting up your money.
Place Back Multi - BSP & Exchange (Straight)
Recommended starting balance 300 points.
Projected 300 points annual profit.
Place Lay Multi - Exchange (Straight)
Recommended starting balance 300 points.
Projected 400 points annual profit.
Racing Lays - High Exchange (Straight)
Recommended starting balance 300 points.
Projected 200 points annual profit.
Bet Focus - BSP & Exchange (Straight)
Recommended starting balance 300 points.
Projected 300 points annual profit.
Actual real money Start Bank: £1000.00
Required 1200 points split in total.
Now this can be weighted to whatever strategy you decide has more money allocated, ie £500 alone could be on Place Lay Multi with the remaining £500 split across the other three, but for the purpose of this example it will be an equal share on each.
This means you would divide 1000 by 1200 giving a 0.83 stake per bet, ie 0.83 x 300 = approx £250.00.
Should all four services hit minimum projection that would be an annual profit of £1000.00.
0.83 x 300 points profit = £250
0.83 x 400 points profit = £333
0.83 x 200 points profit = £167
0.83 x 300 points profit = £250
= £1000 annual profit
This is betting using 0.83 as your single point per bet, and with the correct recommended points allocation for each of the strategy options to allow for losing periods to reach the end target profit amount.
It's sensible betting, and each of the strategies running using the automation has been configured for a long time now to factor in having a large enough points balance to operate being essential.
My recommended points allocation is definitely geared towards extreme safety.
What I have learned over my years betting is that when betting ventures outside of the comfort zone people start twiddling and then miss the profit points, increase too much and then hit a dip and quit, then missing the next profit point.
Alternatively, people will hit a great run when they begin and ramp it up far beyond where the boundaries of where the points balance should be, and then it takes just a few inevitable days of losses to wipe a balance.
My strategies work outside the typical betting mentality, and that's why people who follow the advised staking succeed.
If you set up ready to go the distance you will reap the rewards and never hit any point where your balance is at risk.
When my original services launched with Cloud Bet Bot and the previous Expo Bot I was always reluctant to offer staking advice as I didn't want to be considered as giving financial advice.
I would just relay how I was staking or send screenshots of my bet once placed, but over the past couple of years specifically I have realised the error of my ways and now often get on my soap box about the importance of sensible staking, and also offer extensive information on how to run these services to get the most out of them.
I've provided a lot of info on this and will add more, because all I want it members using the right staking and getting the same returns or thereabouts.
I should have done more on this sooner but relied on members to figure it out and took it for granted people knew the strategies were long term based, thus needing a more considered approach.
This has been the case for the most members, but I always operate with a proportion of people who start betting balls to the wind on a hope and a prayer, who then later get stung as a result.
Often these people I get along with very well, but they decide to go rogue and miss out on all the good stuff when we hit a predictable run of winners.
It genuinely breaks my heart, I get down about it, and just wish I could ensure everyone had all the information they need to set up right.
Hence why this section of the news post is setting up a surge of new resources and tools to help everyone budget correctly, and then we can all retire while we're pretty enough to enjoy it, or spend our profits how we decide, but it will be controlled growth and everything in its right place so no unexpected drama.
After working with Nigel using Cloud Bet Bot admittedly we've stepped up our professionalism and I have realised the importance of adding as much free readily available information as possible.
Now, let me give you another example of how you could approach investing your £1000.00.
Two strategies listed as star performers below.
Place Back Multi - BSP & Exchange (Straight)
Recommended starting balance 300 points.
Projected 300 points annual profit.
Place Lay Multi - Exchange (Straight)
Recommended starting balance 300 points.
Projected 400 points annual profit.
£1000 to invest, split 70/30 with Place Lay Multi receiving £700 and Place Back Multi £300.
700 divided by 300 equals £2.33 stake per bet for Place Lay Multi
300 divided by 300 equals £1.00 stake per bet Place Back Multi
Given the projected earning from these two the total predicted profit amount would be £1232.
This is 300 x £1.00 equals £300 of course for Place Back Multi, and 400 x £2.33 equals £932 for Place Lay Multi should both reach expected targets.
You can weight it however you decide is right for your style of betting.
You could go all in on one service or spread your money as shown above.
The most important thing you have to do is create a sensible points balance from your investment, something you're comfortable letting run over the thick and thin to have a chance of reaching these predicted targets.
If you just make it up as you go along or go in too hard I guarantee you'll quit and think what a load of shite.
However, if you do as I am advising here you will absorb any losing spells without breaking a sweat and never see your balance be in any danger given my extreme safety levels, while still banking a very respectful amount of profit over the year all going to plan.
I have to say that some of these predictions will be modest and we'll smash them, whereas others may fall short, but I am confident in all the services reaching a profit over each twelve month betting period regardless where they may at time of publishing this post.
Please do have a look at the areas of the site I recommend above and check you're set up right if unsure, and you can always email me to give it a once over and point you in the right direction.
Star Performing Automated Betting Strategies & One to Watch
I'll highlight the top two profitable strategies and their bet types used during July here and the one to watch, but plenty of them made good money and I'd encourage you to have a deeper look at www.exponentialbet.co.uk
If you visit the site and select Betting Strategies from the drop down on the main menu you'll be able to examine each strategy from there.
Place Lay Multi - Exchange (Straight)
The MTP option is the only one available for Place Lay Multi when selecting straight betting via the bot menu.
This is a fixed stake bet and as such Betfair don't allow for BSP as they just provide a fixed liability service at BSP when laying.
This means some members will have achieved more or less profit for MTP (minutes to post) betting using this bet option.
However, all members following this strategy will have the same wins and losses and made a profit whether it be better or lower than reported.
My reported results are 64.71 points during July with a very comfortable 16.62 points drawdown.
455 total bets placed and 22 winning days with just 9 losing, and a strike rate at 55.75% which is an impressive show of strength for the strategy.
The trend has continued over the past two months for Place Lay Multi showing a decent profit, and historically it returned even higher.
This month so far over the past four days at the time of posting this news blog (4th August @ 18.45) the strategy has made 18.65 points profit, no losing days so far, and a drawdown of just 2.70 points.
It like it could continue indefinitely pushing the balance the right way, and from eight recorded betting months so far has only finished in the minus on one.
I mentioned when first launching this service it would become a popular one for members, and after one dip in form it is proving to be the case.
Take a look at the Ratchet option in the results for this strategy if that suits your style of betting, it may surprise you.
Place Back Multi
All settings for this option had a great month, BSP Straight, Straight Exchange betting, and Target Profit.
BSP returned very close to direct to the exchange options banking 27.10 BSP points profit.
The stand out though was the Target Profit.
Target Profit is exchange betting only given the nature of the bet requiring a calculation pre race.
Returning a 35.35 points profit with just 7.17 points drawdown over the month, and a strong strike rate at 66.29% equating to 18 winning days and 11 losing.
This is the most profitable month for Place Back Multi Target Profit recorded, and the service overall with all three bet options looks to be heading the right way and steadily moving toward target.
As it stands so far early this month (4th August @19.01) Straight Betting with Place Back Multi is showing a positive start already.
Both BSP and MTP options showing near enough the same points profit with 7.71 for BSP and 8.03 for MTP.
28 actual bets placed over 7 races which gave us 6 winning races and a strike rate of 85.71%, and a drawdown of just 1.20 points.
These are comforting numbers and bode well for what is to come over the months and years ahead with this strategy.
The trends built in are very loose and set to require minimal adjustment over the years for all the automated services.
Which happens automatically as an audit by the software every few months anyway, but the place strategies have been designed to be lightweight admin given they operate within a low liquidity market.
I have a logic behind this I'll cover in more detail in a future news update as I think some of you may be interested.
All in all Place Back Multi is a selective backing strategy which is looking robust and on target for projections.
You can find out more about both place betting strategies covered above here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/place-betting
One to Watch
Racing Lays continues to show increased consistency even when it hits a run of losing bets it's all low drama and considered.
Focusing on the Racing Lays - High Exchange (Straight) option, this strategy over the past two months has returned 82.70 points profit with a single bet per qualifying race, which there have been 199 over June and July.
A strike rate of 90.54% gives a lot of confidence this strategy has now found its rhythm, with 41 winning days and just 11 losing and a drawdown at 22.48.
I like to see a little up and down with a graph to gauge how a service can handle a period where things don't always go the way we'd like, and this graph demonstrates exactly why you should have a sensible and correct points balance in place.
In my opinion its poised to keep heading the right way to target factoring in dips along the way which there will be more.
A 200 point annual points projection based on just the past two months results alone looks modest, but we will have more losing months mixed with the winners and I feel 200 points profit growth is very achievable and safe, but I also feel this is modest and it will be higher.
Already this month (4th August @ 19:25) we've hit 3.56 points for BSP and 6.76 points profit for MTP.
Just 1 losing bet so far from a very selective 13 bets placed. The strike of 93.31% is where it should be given the odds range of the highest value of lay bet allowed, and everything as expected.
Given this is win market lay betting as well the odds fluctuate a lot less and we have more money available on the exchange than the place market due to popularity reasons, so getting matched close to published exchange results is very common with this strategy.
Racing Lays has hit a run of losses since launch after what was an awesome show of strength in the first published results, but now over a period of three months recouped this dip in form and looks set to return consistent profits over the majority of betting months each year.
It is betting strategy to watch, and a service if previously overlooked or put off due its dip in results one to consider getting involved with now. I can see this being an excellent money generator.
Strategies Yet to Reach Potential
Lay Dutching Main last month returned 20.66 points profit, but this is no indicator the service is anywhere it needs to be as it's had 7 losing months from 14 so far, and the trend requires more stability to begin giving me confidence this will reach target.
Both Lay Dutching strategies are the services that are most in need of a regular trend assessment with Lay Dutching High being the service with the biggest loss recorded from the automated strategy.
Place Lay Single for all bet options as well as Bet Advantage Medium and Low are only just steadying out from the programming involved, but Bet Advantage in particular started showing good form over the past couple of months specifically for the High option.
These services have been put through the data tools more often of late, and should all now begin reversing the trend to become consistently profitable, which is what we all want.
Sometimes it does take longer and the concepts involved with the strategies require more data and development, but I can hand on heart state every service running has the scope to make a lot of money if planning up to one, two, three plus years from now.
The services not running as I'd like listed here are all being monitored and the system auto adjusts the way it's been programmed to do so. I can see it starting to nudge these back on track.
If they are in your current bet portfolio I am giving you the nod they will steady out and I expect them all to make money over the coming twelve months, then continue to improve.
They will not win all the time and they may well be slower over the coming months than the others, but I would not be surprised if in a couple of months I'm including one of them in the monthly one to watch section.
Whether they hit target I would not commit to right now, but if they justify their investment and make a good enough profit over the year ahead I'll consider this positive progress, and I cannot see this not being the case.
In Play Bet Club
Bet Mover is an in play betting tool I have covered extensively since it's launch in February 2021 and been involved with early development of the software as a tester of new features, also reviewing its progress and publishing my results on You Tube, which you can catch up with in full here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/bet-mover
I've previously mentioned an In Play Bet Club which will operate using Cloud Bet Bot allowing members of this new service to set their stakes within the bot, and then anything between one to five days a week when racing I follow is applicable I'll place remote in play bets for everyone subscribed to the club.
This has proved to be a popular concept and something I am very eager to release.
I'm genuinely looking forward to getting in to that weekly routine of placing the bets for my club members, and sharing my progress at Exponential Bet reporting our weekly P&L.
There will be a Telegram group for the club as well, so if you're involved you'll be able to share your experience and thoughts with other members.
There is now a Telegram group for Bet Mover itself which I think is a very good thing given the nature of the software.
As the automated strategies are hands off we don't need a group given the idea is to set and forget, but with something that is manual I think it's useful.
If you're happy or pissed about something when things are manually being placed and not automated it is always better to have a platform to voice your opinion.
The In Play Bet Club will also have this, and be available to a limited number of members.
If you haven't registered already and this sparks your interest, just send me an email to ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk with In Play Cloud Betting in the subject line, and you will be automatically added to the invite list on a first come first invite basis. Which is the fair way to do it.
Then it will be one in one out invitational only, which is down to the limited liquidity in play betting has compared to pre race.
When I start this depends on how quickly I can set up my new office as our house sold a lot faster than expected, and now the pressure is on to have an offer accepted on our new home, move, and get set up again asap.
Then once I'm in there is no stopping and the club can officially open its doors without interruption.
A guestimate of when this will be is somewhere in September. It was before the house went up for sale and was sold in a matter of a couple of weeks estimated to be this month, but as my office is upside down and half in storage that's not possible sorry.
As stated though when I can get going there will be no interruption.
Full details of exactly what's involved and what to expect will be added to the site ahead of going live, and invites sent fairly as explained.
I'll continue to keep you posted here on my progress.
What I can reveal though is the bets will be placed to your Cloud Bet Bot account for all who are signed up and active, but placed directly via Bet Mover by myself, all within milliseconds.
Exciting times...
That's it from me this evening, I'll be back again with another news update on normal schedule this coming Monday evening.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan
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