Exponential Bet News 18th August
I've been looking forward to writing this post all week as I've a lot to cover.
I'll go in to specifics with each service over the coming weeks, but today's post is an important overview of what's been going on at Exponential Bet, and what's coming up in the immediate future.
What's included:
The joint venture system currently known as the 'Unnamed System'.
Expo Bot migration to Cloud Bet Bot.
BSP Multiple Dutch Betting, and the new addition to the service One Dutch S2.
Football Trading with Trade On Sports.
The Unnamed System
This is the first of many new systems being created between Nigel Dove from
Hedger Pro / Cloud Bet Bot, Keith from Focus Ratings and myself.
You've got three people with years in the industry all pulling together to achieve the same goal, which is provide the best betting systems for our members.
I wrote about this recently in a blog post, and received a tsunami of requests to be included in the limited release of this strategy.
You can read the blog here if you missed it:
https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/hedger-pro-trading
Since the post in which I reported 27% weekly balance growth, the system has continued to surprise and surpass expectations at this level
Which means in the space of four weeks my total investment actually increased by 127%, which is something very special, and why this is being covered at the top of today's post.
In one month the balance has doubled with no drama and continues to rise, or hold its own.
I've since explored another market to run the same bets alongside the original betting concept, which over five days increased by 32.2%.
This of course needs more mileage, but again has the wow factor.
This alternate betting approach has built the balance in a noticeably straighter line, with a higher strike rate, but lower returns per bet.
I'm just as surprised as you are reading these numbers, as the system kind of fell out of the sky from some analysis ran over the
Focus R5 Rated horses.
I'm delighted of course by the returns, but I'm also over the moon that we can actually introduce this to members without destroying the market volumes.
The way we've discussed setting this up will mean everyone achieves the same returns, given we're creating the system to match bets at SP.
Much easier for record keeping, and when we publish results they will be a fair representation of what all members are banking.
I did previously mention a few things that have since changed, one of which is how this service will be delivered.
You will be able to access the system on its own, but only within a package deal including Hedger Pro.
This will be unveiled soon with costs and what's involved, but this will also include my trading strategies to be used with the platform.
However, it will also be available via Cloud Bet Bot which will run the system fully automated, and with the option to select the two markets listed, and a few other customization options we've been running that prove to be profitable, such as stop at profit, only run it up to or after certain times of day, and more to be added.
All of these are backed with data tested through the R5 Focus Ratings, and by our own live testing.
The fact remains, that over 100% balance growth a month, being able to back to SP to ensure the same returns we're achieving, fully or part automation available, and you have complete control of your settings, makes for an exciting new system.
We've also come to the decision that we need to run this for slightly longer before release, and this will give us a chance to allow more people to join the shortlist of available places, which will guarantee access up to our limit.
We can also take our time to fine tune everything, and deliver a quality service with everything explained that's simple to set up.
Honestly I've not had this much fun testing a system in my life, and I've tested hundreds.
It's been a joy to watch this in action each day.
My staking you'd think is not aggressive at 2% of initial balance per bet, but consider that someday's I've had over 20 bets placed within one market alone, when I included the second market last week I can sometimes cover over 40 bets per day.
Obviously I was using a second bank for this approach, but even if I hadn't and put my exposure up to 4% of balance per race, it would of handled the staking without a blip never putting my investment at any risk.
The point being, if I hit a long series of losses using this staking approach within one day, my entire investment could be gone, but given I understand the data source and know it's proven to return and handle the win loss sequence robustly, I've had no problem investing at these percentage stakes, which has paid off giving me the 127% profit buffer.
Also to include here, I haven't been ratcheting or following a percentage of bet approach, it's all been flat stake per race from the start.
We'll include both these options within the Cloud Bet Bot plan for members who wish to follow this stake plan.
Hedger Pro users can adjust daily, as Hedger Pro is a manual set up of the bets, albeit only taking a few minutes which I'll demonstrate.
I'll begin posting more information here, and on social media as we start progressing toward a release date.
If you've registered your interest to join the limited access list for this, and had a reply from me confirming this, then you've no need to email to request access. You will be invited to join, and we're still accepting requests to join when available.
If you haven't requested access to this system and you are interested, then send me an email to ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk
Just write that you wish to be added to the list for the new system, and I'll confirm you're either in, or on the reserve list.
We will have to restrict initial access for this service, as it will affect the market, so we only want a specific number of members to begin.
It's being placed to SP so we'll all be matched, but you know the way the markets and Betfair works, and if we've hundreds of members all going for the same bet at once in each race this without doubt will have an impact.
It's how we handle the impact at our end that will be important, so it will be a staggered entry level for this system.
Not a beta version or early access, straight to the official version, but when the doors open for business based on current interest it will not be available for general sale, but just to the first come first serve people who've registered now at this pre release stage.
This is the first of many systems we'll be collaborating on, and the way it will work is that they will all be added under one membership.
For example if you're already subscribed using the Cloud Bet Bot version, and we add a new approach to using the Focus R5 data, hypothetically within another market and at a different point in the market, you will have the option to add this to your existing bot set up without any new logins required.
This removes the need to keep releasing new platforms and services that need to run independently, and is all driven by the cloud based set up.
I've stated this before, but it's the future of betting and trading.
No VPS required, available on all devices, simple!
Hedger Pro based members will not miss out, as part of your package you will also have the option to access any extra content we include that uses Focus Ratings data, or any other system we add to the archive of available strategies.
This is part of creating an ongoing resource of bet and trade methods that can be applied using Hedger Pro, to give members immediate strategies to work with.
We're also looking at creating a more community based platform for Hedger Pro, and from there I'll add a lot of daily content, also some live broadcasts via platform's such as Zoom.
More to come on all of this, with updates on our progress, and realistic ETA's to follow.
If this sparks your interest though drop me an email as explained above, your confirmation will mean you will be invited, or added to the reserve for second wave access.
Expo Bot migration to Cloud Bet Bot
Expo Bot members have recently been informed I've removed this software from Exponential Bet, and the two Beta systems that previously ran using it will migrate to Cloud Bet Bot.
The services have been taken down from sale, and any members who've paid during this downtime as we cross over to the cloud set up will receive a refund for the lost time, which is only fair.
If you've purchased a one off payment product, and can still apply it using another API or direct to Betfair, that's a different thing, but if you've subscribed and it's no longer available for use, then what you're paying for during this period should be returned to you, and I'll do this for all existing Expo Bot members at next renewal in September, or whenever the longer subscriptions renew.
What was the reason for the split with Expo Bot, and why the decision to move to Cloud Bet Bot.
Well I've been asked this a lot since announced on the 11th August, and wanted the dust to settle before adding my comments.
Also to give the developer of Expo Bot a chance to post an email to members, which he did earlier this week.
The simple answer from my side is that it came down to a few reasons, the first being that Cloud Bet Bot is a much better platform to run automated systems.
It's got a long list of advantages, such as:
No downloadable software required.
No need to leave your PC running.
No issue if your internet drops.
Compatible with PC, Mac, and Mobile Devices.
Much easier to manage updates, not requiring individual member downloads and installs for new versions, it's all handled remotely. We've had approx 20+ updates so far with ExpoBot since release in March 2019, all requiring users to manually install, whereas all updates will be taken care of remotely within Cloud Bet Bot.
Cloud Bet Bot offers a far superior service to my members, and that's the most important thing to me.
The second reason which is something I've had a problem with is time allocated to Expo Bot, and the process of moving it forward from day one.
The communication process between myself and the developer hasn't been ideal for either of us, as he's got his way of doing things, and I've got mine, which is fair enough.
It's time spent on things I'd rather not be devoting myself too, and has meant other areas of Exponential Bet have not received the attention required.
I had to make an important decision to rectify this, which I've now done by moving away from using this software.
Finally, we've all met people that we like and get along with, but just could not work with, or have tried to do so, but for one reason or another just not managed to make it happen.
This is what makes the world go around as we're all very unique, and it's obvious from your own experience that you haven't been able to agree with everyone you meet.
The developer of Expo Bot and myself are two very different people that really tried to create something special for members of Exponential Bet, but we found that we just could not work together for various reasons.
I've mentioned it before in previous posts, but it's important you only spend your time with people that you feel add to your existence, otherwise it's a square peg in round hole scenario.
I wrote a post on the Sunk Cost Fallacy some time back with you can read here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/2019/02/17/the-sunday-slant
This explains very well why for the betterment of the service provided to Exponential Bet members running these systems, and for my own contribution linked to performance, I came to the decision to write it off and put it down to experience.
I wish the developer of the software all the best for his future projects.
Now regarding the services running using Expo Bot that will migrate, the first will be Auto Dutch which late September will resume in the cloud, and move to official version out of Beta.
All members who used Expo Bot will be informed ahead of this, and sent access details with simple set up instructions.
I've taken on board feedback from members regarding settings used within the original software, which we'll look to replicate within Cloud Bet Bot.
As explained above I'll manage memberships during the cross over for all existing members.
More details will follow for members of Auto Dutch, whether users of Expo Bot or manually operating the system.
Following on from this In Play will also move to an official version and run using Cloud Bet Bot, with an ETA to be confirmed.
Auto Football will require a new platform build, so I'll have to leave this on ice, and take the lead from the dev at Cloud Bet Bot.
It's a very positive move for everyone who ran Expo Bot, and for me personally a weight has been lifted.
This has free'd up my time to finally bring these systems out of Beta, and running on a platform with a plethora of additional benefits.
Remote Dutch Betting
We went live with an official version of this service on the 6th August 2019, which is in a nutshell a Dutching service where bets are placed direct to your Betfair account remotely. You can find out more here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/dutch-betting
The Cloud Bet Bot platform today (18/8/19) received a major update, bringing everyone's winning's up to date, so if running using any percentage growth method it will continue to build the balance on the wins from Tuesday when bets resume.
Additionally, the way the bot returns an equal profit has been looked at today, and the varied returns each member has been achieving recently now solved.
A plan is in place to ensure these bets are as close to equal for everyone.
Placing bets and identifying opportunities will see a significant rise in bet volume over the coming weeks. I've been covering this in member updates each day.
We're running back end processes over this time to ensure things like percentage returns in line with liquidity can be factored to each Dutch.
This may be double Dutch to some of you, but let me explain.
Some Dutch bets will have lots of money available on some horses, but other horses that need including at slightly higher prices will only have a few quid, often at certain times of day.
These will require varied staking per selection.
These outsider horses still need including in to the Dutch, as they are highlighted with our data showing they may get up for an upset.
Which means we need a process to maximize the chances of covering all these horses, making sure the money is their based on an average stake per member, and if one of the selections wins it's as close to an even return as possible, with the bet placed at the optimum time to capture this.
Nigel is back from his jollies now and has been working on this, and when this formula is introduced using the power of Cloud Bet Bot's automated processes it bump up the profits for this service.
Applying a new set of parameters that add more logic to the bet placement taking in to account all members, and races that present overall more winners is what it's about.
It's a service that's now officially still under two weeks old so still a baby, but is set to continue to improve and return a consistent annual profit using full automation for members.
Making available a full hands off Dutch betting experience, which is unique to Remote Dutch Betting via Exponential Bet.
I'll begin adding regular updates on this, and as we move quickly to apply the extra parameters that will increase volume and strike rate, I'll relate the impact it's had on the service.
From Tuesday however I'll be applying these filters manually race by race, and working most of next week each afternoon placing Dutch bets remotely for members.
BSP Multiple Dutch Betting
I've now introduced a second BSP Multiple bet for One Dutch members.
You can find out more about this type of betting I use to place Dutch bets on this page, with a video available if you scroll down: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/dutch-betting
This second bet is called One Dutch S2, and it's set up to return at a very decent rate, with the most recent win coming in with a 55% profit.
The benefits of BSP Multiple betting I covered in great detail in a previous post you can read here if interested: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/2018/09/15/banned-from-the-bookies
One Dutch originally has been geared towards lower returns, very high strike rate, small percentage gains over time.
Which is well suited for that approach to betting, and allows for large sums to be matched using the BSP Multiple section.
The One Dutch S2 as mentioned returns at higher odds, and has a lot more betting opportunities throughout the week, with data that's shown it does this consistently while winning a lot more than it loses.
The data is based on Focus Ratings R5, and is a simple math process I run daily.
It's a new strategy with a lot of back testing, but still I emphasize it needs more live betting to produce a good history of results before I start shouting from the rooftops.
I will continue to report on this as often as possible.
The huge benefit of it being BSP Multiple based is that we can have as many members as we like running it, and we'll get matched achieving the same ROI.
Watch this space as we're only at week one with a couple of decent wins so far.
The Trade Guide V5, and Hedger Pro
My ETA for the new guide is end of September, and this will be a big one.
I've missed having the time and all the tools I need at my disposal to trade, it's something I really enjoy, and it very profitable.
The idea was to introduce this running the trade strategy with the all in one platform Hedger Pro.
This required some options to be changed and features added to Hedger Pro, and also to include the R5 Rated horse information I require to make the trades, which both of these have now been done.
This means if you're now a member of Hedger Pro each morning the R5 Ratings are added for you to use, and you have improved options to filter races to place pre race trades that will automate.
It's all very clever stuff, I'm proud to be involved with this.
Part of our mission over the coming months is to take what we have and deliver it in an easier to use format, which will make it more effective.
We've already made giant strides in the right direction, now it's time to bring it all together and stop talking about it.
However, it all can be much better.
What I mentioned earlier about giving Hedger Pro members access to more strategies, that can be applied using the platform is how it can be improved.
Hedger Pro members at a certain level will have access to my trade strategies, and give users another way to use the platform.
Between Nigel, Keith, and myself we'll then continue to build in to Hedger Pro a library of betting and trading strategies.
Existing Trade Guide members will of course receive the update demonstrating the latest trade method, and how to apply this using Hedger Pro, and all within a very easy to follow walk through.
I'll detail this exactly so everyone knows what's included in these membership plans.
I do have an exclusive trade system I'm only making available to a handful of members due to liquidity influence, which I mentioned a couple of months ago and this is not forgotten, but more info to follow closer to the end of this year.
Football Trading with Trade On Sports
I published a football trading week one report approx a couple of weeks ago detailing my initial thoughts and plans for Trade On Sports, you can read it here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/football-trading-week-one
I'd hoped to post a week on from this, but with other work and site developments it's not been possible to edit my update yet.
However, I have in this time managed to record video footage demonstrating:
Assessing the Game State App pre match for opportunities to trade at 10am ahead of Premier League games.
Explaining how to assess the platform for potential trades.
Showing matches I think should be avoided.
Finding a match that does stand out as a potential trade, and explaining why.
Then putting a small trade on this match based on the information within the APP, and completing a profitable pre match trade.
I've also got a second day of football where I go through this same process, and show not opportunity to trade, with reasons why.
Step by step showing how to locate and place a winning trade, while avoiding other games that do not qualify.
This is just the first step in my pledge to demonstrate how to use this amazing platform, as it's incredibly powerful for identifying pre match trading opportunities.
I'll edit the video and publish this in a separate blog post asap this week, but if you're interested in learning how to trade football pre match, this will be of interest.
From here I'll do more pre match trading using larger stakes, and then move to the Telegram and Facebook groups posts, to show how to work from these to find profitable football trades.
My individual financial goals for each service, and platform I'm using listed in today's blog I'll go in to more detail in my follow on posts.
Football trading you already know is one of the few ways to trade using Betfair that can be matched for large sums, as the markets are typically packed with more money than a standard horse race for example, not a major racing event obviously.
My goal using the Trade On Sports APP over a twelve months period as I progress and learn more, is to ramp up my investment, and finish the year with circa £20k profit banked.
This is using a sensible bank, and finding a routine to work with the platform around my other work to safely make these trades.
All of which I'll gladly share with you here in my blog.
Remember that I have exclusive discounts for Trade On Sports at Exponential Bet, which you can find out more here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/trade-on-sports
Round Up
A lot covered in today's post to really summarize what's been going on at Exponential Bet, and what's in the immediate pipeline.
What I haven't covered today is my subscriptions will be changing again for the better, making them even simper to get more included, and in line with what I've explained above to accommodate the obvious changes.
This again will be a post on its own, which I'll look to have updated and published this week, as this just needs arranging and presenting on site.
For now I'll bid you farewell, as I need to enjoy some time off tomorrow before a busy week kicks off from Tuesday.
If you've any questions please let me know, and I'll get back to you asap.
Thanks
Ryan
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