Betfair Trading News 22/11/18


I've lots to cover in this post regarding the imminent update to the Betfair Trading Guide, which includes automation to the pre race trading process, so let's jump straight in.

Before I begin though, let me firstly state that I'm looking forward to getting the new automated pre race trade method out there and released. I can also use it to finish the £100 to a £1000 challenge, and towards my own personal funds.

There have been changes to how I'm delivering this automated trade strategy, which are the most positive changes you could wish for given it's all about making money.

Within this post you will be fully up to speed where I'm at with this new trade guide release, and have a clear idea of what to expect.

The most recent trading update was on the 16th October with reported results for the automated method.

This has undergone a series of tuning updates from mid September, all of which you can see in the blog posts to this point and within the result breakdown below.

Since the most recent post I've learned a lot about the automated method, and want to share the highs and lows.

The working title for the automated trading file I've been publishing results for most recently is Auto Test 2 V1.

When you're working with many variations over a long period of time the creativity with naming files is the last thing on your mind, so excuse the uninspiring title.

Auto Test 2 V1 and the previous iterations up to this point have demonstrated potential for rapid growth, but as published within the results more volatility than other trading methods deployed.

It's obvious when blanketing a day's racing with a strategy you will have more of a swing in the results, as opposed to a consistent controlled line of steady returns that a more structured selective method will give you.

What goes up must come down as they say.

Also back up it has to be said, but it did come down for a spell using the blanketed trading approach, and I dropped significant numbers over a short period.


What you can see in the graph is a tumble of roughly a £100.00 over just a few days, which from a £673 balance down to £573 so quickly is something I had to quickly take note of, and step in with a plan b.

I've detailed in the updated table of results below the specifics of each trade since day dot.

You can see how the careful selective approach got the bank steadily moving the right way up until the automated testing began.

With the existing methods within the guide, and variations I test along the way with a view to introduce them.

The automated style has without question returned high numbers, but does need taming.

Witnessing the downward swing is incredibly useful data, which I can now utilize with future automated trading. This also demonstrates exactly why I don't rush to introduce new methods and strategies before they are fully tested, or shown enough to give me confidence to share them.

The In Play BETA System is a rarity, and is available only in test mode until it's seen enough live betting. It actually may never reach this point if the market volume from current users is affected, as I'll shut the doors on sales to not compromise its effectiveness.

The strategy currently sits over 85% balance growth, which for a flat staking in play automated betting system are impressive numbers, but still in development over seven months in use.

I'm open about this on the landing page and with information posted about this system, with results updated regularly, and feedback shared from members using the BETA version.

Automated Trading using this method however just hasn't had the air time, and definitely not stress tested enough for me to release it with confidence, with my caution delaying proved in this instance to be correct.

The level of volatility encountered is too much, and as much as I suspected it would occur in short spells, I never thought based on the small sample data it would experience such a drawdown. I cannot accept it as something viable to put in to play in its current guise.

I'd have released it with an under development notice anyway had it continued to make a steady profit, given its short life span to date.

My initial excitement reported about automated trading making a profit, was partly fueled by the fact I'd programmed the bot to work within these parameters on auto pilot, and was showing consistent green, but in hindsight and knowing myself better than anyone I always come back to reality quickly.

When it comes to the crunch of actually putting something out there for you to use, I have to put myself in a completely different mindset.

Within the next guide update the automated variations I've been using will be available to download and import to Fairbot, BUT, and as you can see it's a big but, with a cautionary note attached as this is still in development. It's just one of many automated trade files members will have access to over time.

All members who decide to use this do so at their own risk. I've included it so you can see what I was using, and I personally see this as a strategy with huge potential. Any feedback from members experimenting will be useful, but I do need to chisel away more to create the masterpiece it can become. I'll be including two versions which will be explained within the guide.

Now as I write this blog post I can see a lot members with disappointed faces, some frowns, or even a few sets of rolling eyes to the heavens.

I understand you've been wanting an automated pre race trading system to rely on for some time. An automated system that can place daily trades, and be left to run on its own with confidence, and this is exactly what I'm delivering in this next update.

Yes, you read this correctly.

I just like building you up for a disappointing ending, only to turn it around for a dramatic positive finale....... Only kidding, obviously....

I just had to explain the dip in results so you understand the reason for the change in delivery, and understand this is a positive, as you will be getting automation based on a strategy that is proven and not experimental, and one you can immediately put in to positive action with confidence.

The whole process of developing automation with trading and what you're seeing unfold, is actually all part of the bigger picture to create something with incredible value, and if you're reading this you're already ahead of the curve being able to access these automated trading methods.

There is nothing I've found worth shaking a stick at in this field of expertise in comparison. A few companies working on this concept, but it's all cutting edge for sports betting. Bear in mind, this is only horse racing so far, I am looking at football markets due to the high liquidity, but I digress and jump ahead too much.

As I've mentioned previously this is the first of a series of updates, focused around pre race trading automation.

I have to be confident in what I'm delivering from an responsible ethical standpoint, as I value each member who uses my betting and trading products, and your betting bank is as important as my own.

In fact if I'm completely open about this, your betting banks are more important to me. As I experiment in ways with my own money I'd never encourage, and do so in order to bring you new innovative betting and trading methods.

The only way to test these systems is live as no back testing can be relied upon, so when I need to run fine tuning or test new parameters with alternate selection methods, it's got to be done within the actual live exchange.

This means that it takes time, which I'm fine with, as long as I can see progress being made and an end in sight for each test method.

I've many automated trading methods to be worked on waiting in the wings for inclusion, fully fleshed out plans and files to set in motion.

Obviously with only one exchange each day and myself to run the testing, I've also a plethora of other functions I have to commit to daily, so it's not possible to achieve it all at once.

The good news is, I'm still a relatively young and moderately healthy man, with enough energy and enthusiasm to work on this day and night, and over deliver on all my pledges in good time. While I'm still able to hit my own targets of early retirement at least.

When the bank began tanking using Auto Test 2 V1 I felt out of control with what was happening because a) I'd not spent time selecting the races to apply the trade method b) the horses being traded in some races the way I've set up the files would not have been my choices, as they were odds specific come race time for one of the test methods, and c) the parameters of selection across the entire day was too broad thus creating the swinging highs and lows.

This method and approach to pre race trading gave me an education in how I need to adapt this for the strategy file, so now I need to return to the lab and work on it.

I have to reduce the volatility of the swings and increase the strike rate, which I have a clear plan how to achieve this, but as stated above this takes time live testing.

Given I want to bring something of value to my members in this next update, I gave it a lot of thought about what works right now, what we can 100% rely on as a method of pre race trading using automation.

Method 1 from the trading guide has already has proved itself as a powerful selection method to locate horses which make profitable trading opportunities.

Without giving the game away about this method, those who use it from the guide already know you have to be at the PC during the day up until race time, which for those working in the day, or not able to dedicate time to trade this way the strategy is unfortunately not being used.

I've now created a number of strategy files that allow all members to either select the horses earlier in the day or the evening before racing, select them within the bot, and leave it to run on automation.

No longer required to be at the PC in the run up to the races, just a small amount of due diligence is required using the method, which will be demonstrated in the next update. Members can then activate the file within the bot, and this is then left once set until you return to the PC.

Even if you're available to run the system and want to monitor the trades, this removes the human element and instinct to trade off earlier for lower profits, which we're all guilty of from time to time, or even panic and accept a loss too early.

It operates a stop loss to ensure we limit our total exposure, which you will see in the couple of days I recorded my selection process and trades, and this came nowhere near to the stop loss level returning a profit on all trades.

With all trades in fact either over performing, whereas I could have achieved more profit had I widened my margins, and over both days with the trades selected seeing the choices either go on to win, or come very close.

This emphasizes the quality of the selection method that I've put in to play myself personally time and time again, and what Method 1 is built upon.

For anyone looking for horses to trade in play this is also a positive system to deploy, something I'll be exploring more as I get back on track publishing trade results, up until I meet my target using this method.

This is the method I'll be sticking to reach the £1000 and now showing my returns using it in operation.

After I hit the target I'll begin publishing results including my trials with the other automated files in test phase. I'm eager to reach the £1000 now, and recoup the dip feeling fully in control.

You can see from the graph that after I returned to old faithful and added the automation, recorded in the results table below as M1 Auto (creative I know), we've already seen a rapid recovery.

Each race I've operated the method has been using sensible numbers, no grey hair moments, just one losing day, and the feeling of control returned.

I've allotted a few days this week to finish the guide update and add the instructions, files, and re work the guide within the members area for trade members. All going well I'll have this published by midnight Sunday 25th November.

I'll sign off here, and if you've made it this far reward yourself with your beverage of choice.

Expect another update over the weekend when I get closer to the finish line, then after I'll get back to posting my progress utilizing M1 Auto.

+542% Total Balance Growth

Start Bank £100.00 Prev Balance £662.95

No. Days

79

New Total £642.00

Results table Updated 15th November 2018.


#swingtraders #swingtrader #swingtrading #horseracingtrading #tradingstyle #automatedpreracetrading #tradingBetfair #tradingsystems

Contact Me

The Foundry, 15 Yorke Street, Wrexham, LL13 8LW

ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk

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