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How Not to Bet!

I received a great question from one of my subscribers today, which just reminded me of how I used to bet, specifically when I used to lose more than I won.

The question itself has nothing directly to do with the title of this blog, and is completely valid, but it made me think of how not to bet, and my old mindset when I used to look for specific bets or betting systems. I was simply asked what the average odds are for a new Dutch system I've got in the pipeline.

This system will be my highest yielding Dutch system for winning bets, which also means it will lose more than the other systems, but overall generate a healthy balance growth with the winners, whilst protecting the initial investment. So, I can totally understand the question, as the returns and strike rate need to be high enough to cancel out losing bets, whilst still pushing the balance forward.

Anyway, this question made me think of how I used to literally be a bookmakers fantasy, searching for bets at specific odds, instead of taking each day as it comes, and assessing every new scenario on its merits. I'm sure this member in particular was not even thinking along these lines, but I'm glad I was asked the question, as it prompted me to write this hopefully insightful post.

don't be a sheep

With any successful bet or trade system, the average odds, the results etc, they take care of themselves. It's finding the right bets or trades that matters, and executing these correctly which should be the only focal point.

Bookies love to distract you with all kinds of offers and promotions, odds boosts, suggesting bets at half time, or focusing on specific outcomes that ultimately benefit them. Keeping the mindset of clients focused in the wrong direction is what your Joe Bloggs bookie loves to do. Instead of thinking about making the right decisions, and making a steady percentage profit, people can find themselves just looking at the odds themselves, and what might be if... Not only that, if you do win too much from a regular bookie they ban you, but that's another post on it's own entirely!

My advice is, do not be one of the crowd. Look at each event your betting or trading as it's own individual puzzle to solve, or how you can apply the bet or trade system's rules you're following.

betting decisions

The most important factor with betting or trading, is not to try and force a situation just because you want it. If it isn't there and doesn't suit the bet or trade method, then it's best to walk away, or adopt a totally different approach if one is available.

When you're minds on the wrong target, you're never going to achieve your goals. If when betting or trading your primary objective is to find selections that meet a specific odds criteria to meet a profit margin, then in the long term you're onto a loser.

My selection processes for both betting and trading operate based on the days racing/football on offer, and they either fit each sporting event, or they don't, but they can't be applied in a generic fashion. This is why I operate a variety of Dutch systems, my trading is very selective for races and horses, also my football betting runs across a few platforms and criteria which needs to be met, or I simply don't bet. The odds themselves do not make my final decision.

For one of my systems the odds and value has to be at a minimum level for a race to qualify, but this is only after factoring in many levels of filtering to find suitable horses and races. When this is done, if the value isn't worth getting involved, then I don't bet. If all boxes are ticked with this system, and value meets the required level, then I'm all in. At no stage am I looking solely at the odds either on specific bets, or with my betting systems as a whole, and basing my choices against this information. I have done this in the past, and it got me nowhere.

Always look at every bet individually, assess it for its own merits and set of circumstances that surround it, never lump in a load of numbers and if's and maybe's trying to achieve a dream profit. You may as well be doing the lottery, and if you do, then good luck to you I hope you win of course.

When it comes to betting or trading, unless you have beginners luck and bag your millions very quickly, you will find that what you think should happen according to the odds, very rarely does, but in the mix of it all are real opportunities to extract profits, from bets or trades that actually hold value. In some cases they reflect their odds, in others you can take advantage of fluctuations in the market.

As long as you know exactly why you're entering a bet or trade, and you're not distracted by trying to achieve a return just by looking solely at the odds and what might be etc, then you're already a few steps ahead of the mainstream punters. If you adhere to this principle diligently, then I guarantee you will reap the long term rewards.

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