With the release of the latest version update for all the services, it feels like the right time to provide examples of a low, mid, and high risk vs reward betting approach.
There is nothing wrong with using just one strategy, or a combination that creates a Bet Portfolio, providing it fits in with your comfort settings, that is the most important factor to consider before you decide to switch the bot to active and start betting.
Today I will cover Bet Portfolio creation, but the same rule applies if choosing just one strategy.
You need to understand how to calculate your investment per strategy, selecting the right strategy, stacking them to create a portfolio, and from the available latest version result data, projecting what to expect over the coming months and years to fit in with your expectations.
Contents
Introduction
Low Risk Portfolio - The Slow, Steady, and Safest Route
Target Profit
Exchange Liability
Concurrent Strategy Operation Advice
How to Decide What Strategies Work Best For You
Lower Risk Bet Portfolio
Looking at Results Objectively
Setting up a Portfolio Points Balance
Medium Risk Portfolio
High Risk Higher Reward Bet Portfolio
Introduction
The current bet data is now no longer dependant on the various trends that affect sport across a season and over the years.
The latest version update gives a much clearer projection of what's to come, albeit not guaranteed to be exactly the same.
However, as the strategies no longer rely on these popularity trends, the coming years results I expect to have similar ups and downs to reach a similar target points profit.
The periods of no gains, dips, and high growth months we have to assess will be similar over the same amount of time, just not in the same order. The impact will be somewhere close from the wins and losses.
Today we will look at the past two year betting data, back from 12th March 2021 to 13th March 2023 using the latest version update.
The filters now in operation look at a specific range of horses within each race, whether that be one or more depending on the strategy.
A range of minimum and maximum runners, which again have some differences between each strategy.
The min and max odds is also a major factor to generate suitable selections.
The time a race is first looked at by the software to monitor the range and odds is a factor.
The area within a race market being targeted is also part of the criteria.
With the timing to actually place a bet based upon a specific range of odds movement is a vital part of the selection process.
Place Lay Single operates a stop at a 0.9 point profit over a days racing, then resets to the following day if this is reached
That is the only strategy with that mechanism, the remaining strategies do not have a stop criteria built in.
They also have no class filter, every day of the week is covered provided bets qualify (this does not mean there will be a bet everyday for every strategy, they are selective), there is no jockey ranking, every jockey is looked at as a possible back or lay bet, and any percentage weighting of jockeys, trainers, ROI analysis etc has gone.
Anything that relies on times changing, trends moving with popularity, age, circumstance, and requiring continual monitoring, all that has been removed.
The results below are derived from filters that are not affected by trends, but instead factors that will never change within racing, and have not changed since Betfair first launched the betting exchange.
I will cover each available strategy, and put together a few potential portfolio examples that include all services in operation at once.
You can then decide to slim down to the services that suit you, assess your investment, and your long term goals.
I'll include visual examples of what you can expect over the course of weeks, months, and years to come.
For anyone starting out the main question seems to be, how to decide what strategies to run together concurrently, what stake method to use, and how to work out the betting bank.
Within this update you will ideally have the answers to these questions.
The strategies each individually have different bet types, i.e. Exchange Straight, Target Profit, and Exchange Liability, if betting direct to the exchange.
It's important to understand the differences, so I will begin by explaining what they are.
For services with more than one included on a single bot page, such as Sure Favs, you need to pick one of the above bet type for all options, i.e. if running Sure Favs Main, and High, they both would need to be either Target Profit, Exchange Straight, or BSP. Although for the latest version update I would not recommend BSP
I will factor this into the three portfolio combinations listed below, demonstrating how to mix and match.
Building either a low risk portfolio that requires less points investment, operating at a lower drawdown, while still providing annual balance growth.
We will have a look at mixing some higher risk options, with a mid range risk portfolio to produce more long term profit in comparison, but require more points, and has a higher drawdown.
Then finally I will go over how to bet with everything turned up the max, a higher risk approach with a higher reward of course.
This will have a higher drawdown, but the potential for much higher financial returns are possible.
Let's begin in that order, and look at a low risk set up to start with.
Low Risk Portfolio - The Slow, Steady, and Safest Route
There is a trade off with any combination of strategies you decide to take, and with slow steady safe, you already know you're reducing the potential for higher returns, but this is to create a portfolio that can operate with lower points, and has shown to work with a low drawdown.
For some members this is vital, and slow steady gains with less volatility is an appealing trade off for the peace of mind it can offer.
You could still have a very impressive return on your investment, with a lot less risk.
If you're betting using a Low Risk portfolio, and with a long time mindset, safety is at the forefront of your plan.
Applying a Ratchet should not be considered, as this will expose you to more risk in short three month bursts, and give you more volatility.
In this post today I will not be including a Ratchet approach to betting, but will cover this in the future using these low, mid, high portfolio set ups.
You should stick to the safest approach if looking at a Low Risk approach.
Target Profit if backing to win, and Exchange Liability applies if lay betting a horse to lose the race.
Target Profit
Target Profit calculates how much money to place on a horse to win a race. It's a method to use if backing to win.
Whether that be in the win or place market.
Target Profit will adjust the stake to try to win the set amount of profit you have entered in the stake box within the bot.
The simple example being, if you have put a Target Profit stake of 5 in the bot, meaning £5 if in the UK.
That is the amount you are looking to win on each of the bets whenever the bot decides to bet.
As mentioned, this can be place market or win market betting.
If it's place, then a win is classed as the number of place positions required to meet the requirements, if it's win only, then it has to finish first in its race.
In this example we are looking to win £5 profit on each bet, so your total point value calculated is £5 per point,
Target Profit is very different than putting in £5 as an Exchange Straight bet, as the the bot would just stake £5 each bet with Exchange Straight.
Which can of course win you a lot more in most cases, and hence why the profit for Exchange Straight is higher.
It will also put more risk and liability in to virtually all the bets, which is why the Drawdown for Exchange Straight is higher.
To give you a working example of using Target Profit instead of Exchange Straight, a horse is at odds of 4.3, and your stake is £5.
If betting using Target Profit, the amount the bot would place would be to achieve a £5 win profit if the bet was successful.
This means your stake amount would be adjusted automatically by the software to approximately £1.55, which would then give you the £5 profit you're looking for on the win, allowing for 2% commission.
If you lose, then your liability on the bet is £1.55, and that would be lost, which is 31% of your stake amount entered, not 100%.
In the Bets Placed history within the bot, that would be classed as a -33% point loss on that bet, not a 100% point loss as it would be if betting Exchange Straight. The loss would be shown as -£1.55, and the win shown as £5.00.
If it was the other way around and you bet £5 with Exchange Straight selected, you could win £16.17 after commission, but if your horse loses the bet the entire point is dropped. Your stake amount is your point value, which in this example is £5.
The Bets Placed history would show -£5 if it lost, but £16.17 if it won with Exchange Straight.
The profit is higher, but so is the risk with Exchange Straight in comparison to Target Profit.
The only situation where your risk would be slightly more with Target Profit would be if the odds on the bet were below 2.0 (evens).
If you're looking for a target amount of profit and you want less risk, then below evens means you would need to put more than your staked amount to potentially hit your profit.
However, all the backing strategies which are designed for Target Profit, i.e. backing strategies not laying, they are betting with a minimum odds level.
The only two strategies below evens, one at 1.80, the other at 1.90, but the remainder set to 2.0 as a minimum bet.
What we wouldn't want is to be using Target Profit, and then risking a large amount of money on a single bet for a small return.
As an example, if the odds were 1.01 (unlikely, but it could happen) and your stake was £5. The total bet amount and your total exposure would be £500 to win just £4.90. Which is of course is not viable, and why the minimum odds is in place for backing strategies. This will negate that risk from ever occurring.
We will occasionally have bets just below evens, but that means we're there or thereabout with our stake, and not putting ourselves at high risk.
The two backing strategies with a minimum odds slightly below evens are Place Back Multi, with it set to look at bets no lower than 1.80.
This we found was the sweet spot given the strategy works in the place market, and situations where the odds are reaching the 1.80 occur every blue moon. Most of the bets are 2.0 or higher, due to the way the strategy hunts for selections.
The second is Sure Favs Main, which is set to 1.90, as this also demonstrated the most potential profit with minimal risk dropping below evens, given the vast majority of Sure Favs Main bets are above 2.0 running the latest version.
The other strategies as stated for backing all have a minimum odds level of 2.0 to avoid being on the wrong side of a target profit calculation, and because this overall provides the best long term profit growth,
Having Target Profit within the software and betting strategies is unique to Exponential Bet, and something we worked to incorporate approx. two years ago.
With the original trend set up results would vary a lot more, and that range of filters was not always best suited to target profit betting.
However, now we are solely focusing on the exchange market and not BSP, Target Profit is ideally situated to provide lower risk betting. It is an exchange bet type only, and it obviously could not function with BSP as it would not be able to predict the required stake.
Especially with the removal of the trend associated filters, and the minimum odds applied around evens, this style of betting definitely suits target profit. It adds robustness to a yearly cycle of betting.
Exchange Liability
This is Fixed Liability betting, and applies only to laying horses to lose a race.
Your stake entered is the target amount the bot will be looking at as a maximum liability.
Instead of reducing and minimising risk with Target Profit and back betting, Exchange Liability gives you control of your liability on each lay bet, so you know approximately what your highest exposure level will be on the lay bet. Give or take a little either way as it is exchange betting.
Fixed Stake betting refers to the practice of placing a set amount of money on a bet. The amount of money wagered remains constant regardless of the odds or the potential pay-out.
For example, a bettor may decide to wager £10 on a horse race, regardless of whether the odds are 2.0 or 10.
The amount of exposure on the bet at odds of 2.0 would be £10, and you win £9.80 minus commission of 2%, or lose £10 if the bet doesn't land in that scenario.
However, at odds of 10 using a £10 stake you could win a potential £88.20 minus the 2% exchange commission, but stand to lose £90 should the horse win the race, and we lose the lay bet.
Fixed liability betting, on the other hand, refers to the practice of setting a limit on the amount of money that can be lost on a bet.
This means that the amount of money wagered varies depending on the odds and potential pay-out. For example, a bettor may decide to limit their potential loss to £50 on a particular bet, regardless of the odds or the amount they stand to win.
In other words, fixed stake betting controls the amount you bet and the odds define your total exposure, while fixed liability betting controls the amount you stand to lose.
Fixed stake betting is more straightforward and easier to calculate, while fixed liability betting allows for greater control over risk management.
Your stake is adjusted according to the odds of a horse you lay, and this means the amount you have entered as your stake within the bot, this would be approximately your maximum target liability on the bet. Never exact as mentioned, as it's an exchange bet.
This is why Exchange Liability and Target Profit are both the ideal combination for a Slow Steady Safe Low Risk Portfolio.
They operate with increased control over your total bet exposure.
Concurrent Strategy Operation Advice
Each of the strategies can operate together, but there will always be some overlap.
As in, days where one or more do better than the others that drop points, or cancel each other out in a race.
The things you should be focused on are in my opinion, having a correct balance of risk that is equal across all strategies, then it does not matter if some do well, and others do not in this scenario.
You are looking at the long term gains for each, and over a fixed period of a year as an example, if they all reach a point target of 100 each, and you're running four, you will have made 400 points profit.
Across the year some may have had losing months, and others will have made money, but the bigger picture is that each of them made 100 points over twelve months you were betting, so your bank will have increased by that amount over this timeframe.
It doesn't matter if some have winning or losing periods running all at once, providing they achieve target profit for the Bet Portfolio.
You could have a strategy that just had a poor year, and it lost 50 points, but the other three made 350 combined, so you finish the years betting with the balance at 300 points.
I know it's not rocket science, but you would honestly be surprised how often I get asked these questions. Please excuse me putting it in such simple terms, but I just want it to be 100% clear before I move on to the portfolio building examples.
If you're looking at just days, weeks, or months, you will see periods where some of the strategies have pushed your balance the right way, increasing the balance.
However, some of your active strategies may have lost causing you to either not make as much profit, ie they have eaten into your profits, or lost enough to put you at a loss over the same period.
The same rule applies, if they all finish the year with a 100 points each, that would be what you make over that period. Allowing for the ups and downs of each of the strategies.
Picture the line graph for each strategy overlapping across a twelve month timeframe, and each of them finishing at their own points profit or loss. You add up what you made, subtract what you lost, and that's your total points made for the period.
You will have some that produce late over a year, with periods of no growth, then a few blasts of high performance, but possibly have a lower strike rate, high average odds, and ROI.
While other strategies will be more consistent and produce more winning days overall, but still carry losing periods.
The profit and loss lines will cross up and down, and each will produce differing results, so if you decide to operate more than one strategy concurrently please understand this fact.
The worst thing you could do when setting up a bet portfolio is, see one doing poorly, drop it or tinker with stakes, or move more money on to the ones doing well.
What will inevitably happen, and is proven time and time again, is the strategy that initially dropped points will hit its win streak and you will have either missed the profit increase, or hardly benefitted as your reduced stakes didn't make as much.
Then to make matters worse, the strategies you possibly added more funds hit their inevitable losing periods, and you lose a lot more as a result, while hardly making a profit off the strategies that came in form later in the bet cycle.
This is why it's vital to have a points balance set up from the start, that you actually stick to. Do not be like a monkey jumping from branch to branch thinking the grass is always greener.
All of the strategies are set up as long term investments, and the results for each of them show periods of loss, no growth, and high growth, all combined to reach the published targets. You need a long term view to succeed.
With the latest version in operation, I am confident they will replicate previous performance over the coming years, but not in exactly the same pattern of winning and losing periods.
Two years is a good example though, as you will see some months over the period and years are better than others.
I have refreshed my previous bet portfolio, and now set up for the coming few years following all the current strategies.
I can withdraw profits each year of course, and leave the points balance and value the same. Then continue with just profit, not my original investment.
Alternatively, I can reassess my points balance each year, and then reinvest with a higher point value, while also still making a withdrawal and bank profit as I continue.
However, if a year does not perform to the level I require, but still makes a profit overall, I may just leave things alone and re assess at the end of the second year.
Never tweaking or dabbling with staking during my start and end timeframe.
These are decisions I will make at the end of each bet cycle, and I advise you to do the same if following these betting strategies.
How to Decide What Strategies Work Best For You
Make your strategy decisions based on the long term performance history for each strategy, this will give you an idea of what to expect.
You can find out more about the latest version update here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/information-i-recommend-reading
Each strategy can be seen with a full result history across a long timeline operating the latest set of filters, and will allow you to consider what track record of results aligns with you.
The only change I've made since publishing this is to tighten the range on Bet Focus, and all the Sure Favs options, as I wanted to increase the strike rate.
The win rate for these now show a very similar profit, but the Strike Rate is circa 37% for Sure Favs, and approx. 20% for Bet Focus.
This does smooth the line of growth with an increase on winner days compared to losing days.
The winning and losing day stat is something you should without doubt take into account when deciding whether to include the strategy into your portfolio.
It gives possibly the best indicator of how things can go at any given moment.
I decided to slide the range for the two services above after considering the mindset of members who struggle with the longer losing runs, even though the ROI is higher with lower bet volume, and profit slightly higher.
I want everyone to make it over the line every twelve months for the coming years, and not have tinkered with the staking, or given up, re-joined on the high points recorded, started at a dip, quit, then repeat the same cycle.
That happens a fair bit, and why I am going to such lengths to demonstrate the process of creating a Bet Portfolio to set up and leave for a minimum of twelve months.
It's understandable to be fair that a member would lose confidence if starting on a losing period, and I have to consider this fact to try to still deliver the same points returns, but also work within the acceptable emotional range for each member.
Sure Favs and Bet Focus just needed a minor adjustment to the range, with no selection parameters altered, and they all still produce close to the same results, but if you look at the strike rate published last week for these, compared to what is shown below with the Bet Portfolio assessment across a two year period, you will see this range slide makes a positive difference to the strike rate.
It will provide more winning days, and reduces any losing bet runs.
You will start to see the benefit over the coming weeks and months, as this was added to both on the 14th March.
To operate a set of strategies you will need personal financial goals of course, with a timeframe of when you are aiming to reach this.
When starting out look closely at the stats, you should know if a strategy has a history of long losing runs followed by high yielding wins, or if the strategy has a high strike rate, but possibly higher bet volume and drawdown. These are things you should know before you join and create a bet portfolio.
You will then understand how some will drain profit over time, but have shown consistently to recoup losses with surging winning periods to push the balance higher.
Additionally, the higher strike rate and bet volume bets may make more overall profit, and come with more winning days than losing, but the odds may be lower, and drawdown higher over time.
Understand the stats, and look at the performance graphs before you get started, it's essential.
Lower Risk Bet Portfolio
Here is an example of mixing all the services, but using Target Profit & Exchange Liability to create a portfolio that operates with a lower drawdown.
Sure Favs Main
Sure Favs High
Sure Favs Foundation
Place Back Multi
Bet Focus
Place Lay Multi
Place Lay Single
Racing Lays
All the backing options such as Sure Favs, Place Back Multi, and Bet Focus operating a Target Profit bet type Order Type within the bot.
The lay betting options, Place Lay Single, Place Lay Multi, and Racing Lays all using Exchange Liability order type.
Here is a detailed overview for each of the strategies set up this way, looking at a two year period from the 12th March 2021 to 13th March 2023.
This is betting 1 point per bet of course, and we are focusing on the blue line which is MTP (minutes to post) Exchange Betting.
As explained above, Target Profit looks for the amount you entered as stake for your profit amount.
Your stake is your single point value allotted.
When it loses it will in most cases lose less than your stake amount, but on the wins it will return a whole point profit.
Exchange Liability for the lay strategies, this sets a target lay amount according to your stake withing the bot, which is your maximum risk per bet, and also your single point value.
Sure Favs Main
Sure Favs High
Sure Favs Foundation
Place Back Multi
Bet Focus
Place Lay Multi
Place Lay Single
Racing Lays
Looking at Results Objectively
The first things you will look at for each of the strategy options, is the POINTS for MTP, and if we add up these examples the total comes to +1225.47 across a two year betting period.
The total DRAWDOWN for all services in operation over this timeframe using Target Profit and Exchange Liability is -72.81.
This is all of the drawdown points added up, and does not reflect the total drawdown running all strategies together.
Nigel is working on a Researcher update for me to do just that, and have a Bet Portfolio calculation tool.
Considering the max total drawdown points is very unlikely to happen with all strategies at the same time, it's still a good gauge for worst possible outcome scenarios.
Exchange Straight for both backing and laying has a higher drawdown. Which you will see later in this post.
It massively reduces the risk using Target Profit and Exchange Liability, while still over a 24 months period produces an impressive result.
Results will of course vary from member to member, which is a point I labour possibly too much within my updates, but I like it to be crystal clear.
This is exchange betting so odds for one person will differ to yours as it's peer to peer betting against other members.
Providing you are achieving the same wins and losses, and sometimes you win higher than the next guy, as there is no set order of bet placement per member, it's random, and all bets go to market together, the price differences should balance out over time.
However, you do need to be aware that with exchange betting this is a factor to consider. Target Profit and Exchange Liability betting negate this risk to a large degree, given your calculation is based on an odds range to achieve either your target amount, or only put in your maximum exposure on each bet.
Whereas, Exchange Straight is more susceptible to the larger swings in price when the money hits the market, given the increased risk level.
The idea with each of the strategies is that the win line of growth is so strong over the years, allowing for the visible losing months, that if you're returning there or thereabouts, you're still making a good profit. As the results will be strong enough to get you to a decent level of target profit that is similar, or in some cases greater than what is reported.
However, I can feel myself already starting to labour this point, and I am sure you already understand, but it is an exchange, and prices will differ.
The fact we are capitalising on a particular odds movement required to occur pre race means some of you will be matched somewhere in between BSP or higher, but depending on the market liquidity it could be lower than BSP sometimes.
As the odds on the lay may be moving out, or the back bet may be moving in, it will often mean the early bets that get matched will achieve the better odds.
This is all completely random, there is no member preference, it just depends how Betfair process your bet via the bot.
Providing we are all making a good profit overall, and achieving the same results, that's the most important thing.
Nigel and myself are looking at ways to potentially increase the profit by achieving better odds, i.e. more value on our bets overall. This may be along sometime soon, and presently in development.
It will require testing, and the reporting also updated to record the extra range we're looking for. We want you all matched at the best possible price for each selection. More to follow on this soon, as it's a spin off from In Play Bet Club's staking update which I feel can be applied to all the Automated Services.
Please don't bombard me with questions about it just yet please, but I promise to give you full details once we have trialled the process thoroughly.
I personally do feel we can achieve a lot more value though from these bets by spreading our bet across the ladder more intelligently, but I do digress, and more to follow asap. Back to building a bet portfolio.
If we look at the total potential points profit following all the available strategies, and using the staking methods listed above, it's fair to say this is exceptional compared to the level of risk.
However, we must also look at the line of growth over the periods covered, and decide if this is something we can accept.
We're are not immediately going from point A to point Z, this is a journey over time, and some strategies will dip during this period, will others soar.
As an example using the result data above with the latest version filters, when you look at the graph and stats it gives you all the information you need to project how the coming months and years may pan out.
Sure Favs Main across Oct 2020 to Jul 2021 you can see minimal growth. Really not a lot over that long timeframe.
Dec 2021 a huge surge in profit, but followed by approximately seven months of zero growth.
Then another surge from April to June 2022.
A small increase to the end of July, followed by another surge of profit with some plateau periods and dips over the following months.
From the end of July 2022 we had quite consistent growth up to January 2023, but at a glance I can see over the months we had five significant dips that would have lasted weeks to months.
The growth is there to see, but when you look at the chart you can see it factors in the dips to reach the published points total.
This immediately raises the obvious point to consider, when you start betting it depends when you join the timeline. As this will dictate your experience, and your annual points tallies.
If you had started after the growth period ending around December 21, and then experienced seven months of no profit, just up and down, and if you're not set up to look at this as a long term investment, you would probably quit.
Then of course kick yourself when you check in later, and see the moment when you stopped betting just after this the balance shot up.
You could start on a long losing or no growth spell, or right at the start of a huge profit increase.
There is no way to predict this, and the only way to combat it if you do come in on the wrong end of a frustrating run, is to be set up correctly with the right points balance to cope with any ups and downs comfortably, and of course you need an investing long term mindset.
As you look over the graphs for each system, and see the journey they have been on over the timeframe you're looking at, you will begin to see an image forming like the one below.
The line of the graph will overlap, as you add each new strategy to your portfolios.
You can see that at certain periods in this example, the balance is increasing for some of the lines, but for others dipping, but the total calculation of points gained comes at the very end.
It's then we total up our points balance, deducting losses and assessing the drawdown over the timeframe, but it's the total we are left with that gives us our return to cash out, re invest, and continue to grow the portfolio.
We must allow for the dips and cross over of performance with each strategy to reach the overall gains for the bet investment.
The example above gives a good visual representation of how things can go if running three concurrent strategies.
If you're building a betting portfolio of strategies, this is exactly what will happen over the investment period.
You will also go through periods like this example where everything just middles along, with some making small profits, while others cancel this out.
This is a very important point to consider before you begin.
I receive a lot of emails when people start betting about this, and hopefully this demonstrates clearly what you can expect.
We have started a new cycle of betting with the Automated Strategies running the latest version, and some are doing better than other right now since the update.
The lines of growth and decline are overlapping, but as long as we make a profit overall across the timeline, that is all that matters.
I receive emails from members who have looked at the points totals and drawdown, started betting, and now asking about performance. It is already there to see, with all of the strategies, as they show periods of loss or no growth, but also periods of steady, or high growth.
Please do look deeper at the stats that accompany the graphs, and the timeline along the graphs to see the times when no money has been made. As mentioned earlier, the winning and losing run data is a very good indicator of whether a strategy is suited to your investment style.
It depends when you begin, there is no guarantee you will start at the base of a huge win streak, providing you're set up with a sensible points bank that can handle all of this over the years, tracking each day or week is actually a rather pointless exercise. One of the reasons I stopped doing it with the regular weekly result updates.
The spread of results over the two year period above for the Target Profit and Exchange Liability betting gives a good visual example of how one year can differ to the other.
If you're judging performance after a week or month betting, then my advice is to broaden your range of judgement. The results are there to help you do this.
Exponential Bet services are for the long term gains, the big cash out years down the line, not for an income, but for the combination of strategies delivering either your points target, or when you have set in your mind a time to withdraw your money.
If you are looking for a safer way to invest, with a lower drawdown, then the options listed here using Target Profit and Exchange Straight are what I would recommend.
You do not need to use all the strategies, you can go the super safe route with the single digit drawdowns shown, or put more in to boost the returns, allowing for the increase to drawdown overall to add to the points total come cash out day.
All I ask is that you allow for each strategy to run its course, and if you are running multiple strategy options, accept that some will have peaks while others hit a dip.
Hopefully this gives you a better idea of how to look at a Low Bet Portfolio.
Regardless of your combination of strategies, my projection is they will all make money over the years.
Your betting comfort zone is vital for your success if you decide to set up a portfolio.
How you combine the strategies, i.e. weighted for low risk, medium, or high.
Your attitude to the way they operate across the timeline, and of course how you set up your investment based on past performance.
Which I will cover next, before finishing off with examples of a high risk all in approach creating a portfolio, and a more considered combination at mid level.
Setting up a Portfolio Points Balance
Having established a potential low risk portfolio including all of the services, but with Target Profit and Exchange Liability instead of Exchange Straight, it's easy to see the risk is reduced.
How much you decide to divide across such as an example financially is up to you of course, the lower the points balance the more potential profit, but of course each point value / risk per bet, will also be higher in proportion to your bet bank size.
Something to also consider here is this is exchange betting, so take this into account with your stake volume.
Let me give examples creating a points balance, but of course there are an endless amount of combinations.
Points staking has various options to weight some strategies more than others, and combinations of bet types possible, but simplicity is often the best policy.
The approach I cover and recommend below means tracking your results will be a lot easier.
Looking at the entire set of strategies included in your portfolio, we will assume you decided to put all of them in, and use the numbers above.
Follow my advice when assessing what to put in your portfolio, and choose what looks right for you.
Let's just say we have £1000 to invest financially into this bet portfolio.
We can see the drawdown has shown a record of -72.81 over this period, but of course this just like the returns will vary member to member due to the odds difference on matched bets.
No guarantees it will be more or less than this, but I'd personally say that's roughly enough to allow for a scenario where your matched bets haven't yielded as high, and so your drawdown would be higher, and when running a low risk portfolio.
Think about how much of your total investment you are mentally prepared to be used along the betting timeline, your balance could drop by a higher percentage across a period of time during the cycle. Are you okay to risk this is a question to ask yourself, as the old adage states, never bet with more than you can afford to lose.
It could drop more, or a lot less, depending on how you mix the strategies, but as a start point we are preparing the total calculated points dip, but as a point of fact we are risking our entire 100% investment.
However, the results show us that over a two year period all the strategies combined using the stake methods listed for lower risk dropped -72.81 points.
If this occurred with your £1000 investment, and you have created a 500 point balance, using 1 point per bet, your point value is £2.00, i.e. 1000 divided by 500 = 2.
Over the two year period you would have made +1225.47 x 2 = £2450.94 after 2% commission.
And your total lowest drawdown point could have been -£145.62, but of course combining all the drawdowns as one total is not a 100% accurate to calculate it this way.
It may have happened all at once which would mean the max of -72.81 is accurate, or spread evenly over the two years, so in fact your total drawdown would be less in that scenario.
Let's look at another approach with a lower points balance giving a higher point value.
You could have decided to opt for a 200 total balance, as the drawdown over the period we're looking at here shows the highest drawdown point is not the total -72.81 all at once, but in fact if using all strategies together the highest drawdown point is more like -30 points as a working example.
This means a 200 point balance looks more favourable to you, and fits in with your long term investment goals based on the amount of money you're putting in.
The 500 points balance is more comfortable obviously, as your stake per bet exposure is less, so this means the balance is less affected by the wins and losses over time and overall, it will seem like a steadier less risky process. Just as it would if you invest a small amount you would never miss in a million years.
Whereas, if you're betting with a 200 point balance your bet amount would be £5 point value with a £1000 investment, and with the total returned points using the returns shown above you would be looking at a £6127.35 return, and reached a total -364.05 drawdown level if combining all drawdowns, which did not happen with the results and it was more like 30%, so your total drop off would have been closer to -150 points.
Using a 100 points example, so your £1000 is split into 100 giving a £10 stake per bet, your total amount made would have been £12,254.70, with a potential max drawdown of £718.10, but from the stats the lowest over the entire period if operating all strategies and allowing for the overlap explained above, the 30% drawdown would have meant your max dip would of course have been £300.
For the amount returned this is excellent of course, but consider there will be a difference in odds and returns on the wins and losses, so your drawdown will vary, as will your total amount returned.
If we are all hitting the same amount of wins and losses, which should be the case, then the odds and results will be within a range that returns a very healthy profit for all of use. Providing the services replicate approximately the previous form.
It will differ over the months of course, but the end result over the years should be somewhere close.
Ideally this gives you a better idea how to work out your staking.
I'm going to wrap up this post with examples of Exchange Straight betting.
You will find explained above the differences of the three approaches betting direct to the Exchange, Target Profit, Exchange Liability, and Exchange Straight. Which are the order types we should focus on with the latest version applied to the services.
I want to show you the potential contrast in returns and risk for a mid range portfolio, and an all in higher risk, but far higher reward approach.
Medium Risk Portfolio
With a medium risk level set you will mix and match order types and possibly stick to the higher performing strategies, with Exchange Straight mixed with Exchange Liability and Target Profit as an example.
The higher drawdown services with huge returns, you may want to still include, but control the risk level. Then with the more controlled services running Exchange Straight you can keep then as they are.
Points management is vitally important as covered above, and the same process applies of assessing your potential points return, and potential highest drawdown level. You can use that simple approach no matter how you decide to stack your strategies.
Looking at a level in-between safe and all in though, this is what you could decide to opt for.
The results here are across the same timeline shown above.
Sure Favs Main - Target Profit
Sure Favs High - Target Profit
Sure Favs Foundation - Target Profit
Place Back Multi - Exchange Straight
Bet Focus - Target Profit
Place Lay Multi - Exchange Straight
Place Lay Single - Exchange Liability
Racing Lays - Exchange Liability
With this combination we only include Place Lay Multi and Place Back Multi as Exchange Straight options, but by doing so it increases our points profit by +498.80 over the two year period being assessed.
Returning +1724.27 points, and with a maximum potential drawdown of -108.10. The same rules apply above, as this may or may not have been the maximum point.
You still work out your points balance as detailed above.
The value of your point remains the same for the Exchange Straight Order Types, but the risk on the bets is increased in line with their published Drawdown's.
Your lay bets will have more exposure if above evens for Exchange Straight, and your place bets will be to the exact stake amount entered for back bets using that order type.
The increase in drawdown and points accumulated by having two operate with exchange straight is of course obvious.
This is just an example of how you could mix the services to suit, and I did it this way to keep the drawdown low on the services that had the lower strike rates.
As I wanted to have the ones that do not win as often using controlled staking.
The services that do win more often, and already have fairly low strike rates I included at the top setting of Exchange Straight. To benefit from the extra points profit, while deeming the drawdown level acceptable to absorb into my portfolio of selected strategies.
You should consider your comfort levels when deciding on your stake value, and also that mixing the order types will create more periods of overlapping, where the balance will can rapidly increase, but also the consistency of the more controlled staking can be impacted over periods when the higher risk options of Exchange Straight encounter losing periods.
Now let's look at everything on full whack, with the taps turned to maximum.
High Risk Higher Reward Bet Portfolio
With this option we have Exchange Straight selected for all strategies. The results are across the same timeline as the two examples above.
Sure Favs Main
Sure Favs High
Sure Favs Foundation
Place Back Multi
Bet Focus
Place Lay Multi
Place Lay Single
Racing Lays
The total points accumulated running all strategies across this two year timeline, with Exchange Straight selected, and one point per bet, the points balance is 2870.04.
Using the 100 points example above with £1000, that would return a £28,700.40, with a total potential drawdown of -184.39.
This would of course equate to £1843.90 possible max drawdown over the period, but unlikely as covered above.
The point value remains the same, but the possible earning potential and periods of losing bets have a greater impact.
You could use a larger or smaller investment and stake amount of course, and times these returns by whatever you put in, that's for you to decide.
This will hopefully provide some help in deciding how to approach your options when deciding to create a bet portfolio.
Like everything in life, the more you risk the more you stand to gain, but also stand to potentially lose.
However, if you're putting in for arguments sake a £1000 investment, no matter how you decide to stake you are risking the same amount.
The difference is the speed you can earn or lose your investment.
You should be setting up the betting with the prime focus on your comfort level for investing.
The more comfortable you are with risk the higher option will appeal, whereas if you can't handle the riskier settings and prefer a lower drawdown, the options for this are available.
Your goals and comfort levels need to align, because if they do not you will run into problems.
The purpose of the information provided here is to help you avoid these problems, and achieve a return on investment close to the published results when setting up a Bet Portfolio.
With so many combinations of staking available from Betfair, and what we provide with the software, it can understandably be confusing at first, but you can keep it simple as shown here today.
Assess what means more to you.
Spreading your investment thinly with less risk, and accepting you will make a smaller return than if going for it with a higher risk approach.
Finding a middle ground with less strategies or a combination of bet types to keep the drawdown at a level you're willing to accept before feeling out the comfort zone, or putting everything on maximum and understanding the high and low swings will be mean more financial commitment.
The great thing about Cloud Bet Bot is that allows for stakes under Betfair minimum, so even with a smaller balance you're comfortable putting in, you could still bet with a high risk strategy.
Keeping you within your comfort zone, but with the potential to make a lot more points profit in line with your invested amount.
The combinations are almost endless, but hopefully this information has helped answer your questions.
If anything is not covered here today that you need further assistance with, please do get in touch, and I may add your email with my replies to a future blog post.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan