In today's News update:
Automated Betting Strategy assessment for trend analysis updates, with insights into how each strategy bets, and new recommended points per annum for each service. This is an essential read for all members.
In Play Bet Club we begin getting people set up this week.
In other news, a new subscription level available soon for people who want to bet small stakes.
Intro
I promised at the end of last year I'd add the data behind the trend analysis updates added to each service, but wanted to get some mileage out of them before showing the rationale.
Today I show the data behind each service update, as they have all been done now at varying periods, so it's a good time to show you what to expect from the automated betting.
I have a bit of a rant in my conclusion for the automated update section about the industry I am classified as being part of, nothing too much, but I could write a lot more, and will sometime very soon.
I've added my recent results in play betting, and details of how and when we will get registered members set up ready to bet.
Plus some details about a new subscription option that will be available in the coming couple of weeks, which I think will help a lot of people get started using the services.
The amount of information on each of the strategy page and within these news blogs is overkill, but it is all relevant data.
The solution to this is to break down each aspect of the yearly, monthly, weekly, and result overview assessments and give them a permanent space to occupy.
It will reduce the clutter on each service page and also make the weekly news posts or any other update I upload a more readable length.
I enjoy collating and adding all this data to the blogs and webpages, but when I stepped back and looked at it last week after my mammoth update I realised it was all too much for most people, and it had to be presented better.
Over the course of this week and next I'll begin slimming the service pages into easier to consume sections, which I've stated I would do anyway, so this will happen over the coming fortnight without fail as it's grinding on my nerves, and I want everyone to access all the information quickly without ploughing through pages of text.
I will redesign the entire website to make it clear this is an investment based service, and not a sports tipping website.
This has to be done while still attracting people with an interest in making money from betting.
It's a fine line and balancing act to be totally frank, but I know I can improve about 80% of what is on the site to re organise the space.
This will be clearer and make it easier to get the best out of the automated betting strategies.
Automated Betting Trend Update Assessment
With that said, today I want to show you the data used to conclude trend analysis updates that have been applied to each strategy over the past few months.
All introduced at varying periods they have been added to each service, but the results and the way they operate since has made a significant improvement. Which I will show in this blog, and you can check for yourself against the published results to date.
Everything from bet volume and activity throughout the days and weeks, to the greatly decreased drawdown, and profitable months now recorded for these services showing real live betting results, it is now a good time to share the patterns that emerged from the Researcher software.
This software has guided the decisions to introduce each trend assessment, with the continual data collation in to the tailor made system analysis tool, it's completely unique and has enabled me to fine tune the core concepts of each service which I'll cover in more detail below.
Over the course of this week I'll change the service page data to reflect what I cover in today's post, it is high on my to do list.
Today I want to show you what the data concluded after betting since June 2020 for Sure Favs, Racing Lays, Bet Focus, and from December 2020 for place betting.
All the trend analysis updates applied were identified through live betting activity using the templates for each service.
They were filtered using the AI within the Researcher software to strip away short term profitable selections found to be detrimental to long term profits.
Unlike any comparable betting service we are able to build on our results and betting in a completely unique way with this software and betting bot combined.
We do not lose what has gone before when tuning a service, we can capture the best of the live bets, and let the software extract an easier route to make more profit from the selection method.
All historical betting is then preserved and can be equally assessed when times change, such as racing rules, jockeys and trainers retire etc.
This allows the services to absorb change and make replacements to adapt without disrupting the core concept of each strategy.
These are all trend based services and able to adapt this way while retaining their intentions.
There is always one central idea that has driven a strategy into existence, and this is the focus for the software to find the optimum way to deliver it.
This is not just a lot of hot air and talk, it's an end to end solution Nigel and myself worked to create in 2019.
In fact the software involved will at some point be available for you to access if you wish to develop your own fully automated betting strategies.
That is a little in the future, but possibly not so far away later this year depending on the big ginger giant Nigel Dove's workload.
Now getting back to the assessments of how the current selection processes work, let's begin with Sure Favs.
The post update data is the entire collation of results since the service began using the latest settings.
I've held off publishing this data until we have a body of live betting results that can be viewed side by side pre and post update.
I didn't want to publish pre update results including the update itself before having this live betting coverage period, if that makes sense.
You can see the live betting data pre update and including the overlap from the Detailed Result Overview on each service page to compare both results side by side.
Sure Favs Main had a final trend update on the 3rd October, Sure Favs High on the 1st November, and Sure Favs Foundation on the 20th September.
1/6/20 to 23/1/22 This date range applies to all post update results for each service covered below.
Sure Favs
Main - Post Update Data
High - Post Update Data
Foundation Straight Staking - Post Update Data
Foundation Target Profit - Post Update Data
Summary
All Sure Favs options still back the favourite in each applicable race according the filter parameters within the bot, and select the horse at the exact same timing as before the update, ie Main and High one minute to post, with Foundation minus one minute past post time.
Sure Favs Main now only bets on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and with a very specific mix of race class and jockey selection filters.
It also has a minimum number of runners required within each race that gives it a very effective way to target opportunities that meet the brief each day.
Take a look at the Ratchet results for Main in particular for a very specific look at how the service improved sine the trend update.
Sure Favs High still operates Monday to Friday, but now has a very tight requirement for number of runners and a strict minimum odds range looking for the winner at a value price.
Sure Favs Foundation is the option that will bet a minute past the post as close to the off as possible, while trying to avoid not being matched before they jump.
The days of operation have now been sat at Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday for Foundation.
Like the other two options Foundation operates a very tight minimum and max runner requirement, a max odds filter, race class, and a pre defined odds exclusion range to avoid horses priced at these odds. This has shown to eliminate more losing bets and races.
The improvements made with all the post update results shown above is the steadier line of growth, the lower drawdown, and improved selection method that make running all three possible with very little overlap.
There may be slightly less profit for Sure Favs Foundation and drawdown not much different compared to the live updated results, but the timeline of betting is showing a more consistent upward trend instead of plateauing, with a lot less betting as well giving a notably higher ROI.
For Main and High the improvement is completely obvious with a much lower drawdown, higher profit, more ROI, but with a similar bet ratio.
The way they operate together has been factored into the analysis here, and they typically aim at different bet opportunities with a rare overlap.
This makes setting all three in operation to run concurrently viable, and it's advised to run all three together if a Sure Favs member.
In addition, the recommended points allocation per annum has now changed due to the improvements.
All services will have the advisory to set up a points balance based on annual operations, and this is the case with the recommendations below which will be added to the website for each service this week.
Sure Favs Main - 100 points
Sure Favs High - 100 points
Sure Favs Foundation (both options) - 100 points
Sure Favs Main has no change, but Sure Favs High and Foundation come down from 200 to 100 points recommended per annum due to the improved settings, and also the heightened control the bot has over the betting for these bet options.
Sure Favs Foundation Target Profit with such a low drawdown looks a great option for somebody looking for extreme safety, but still with a comfortable level of balance growth over time.
As it's win market and betting on the favourite the liquidity would rarely be an issue betting MTP / Target Profit with Foundation, so a lot of money can actually be matched at the time of bet.
The updates introduced to these services do massively enhance the core concept of the betting strategy, which is to find the favourite in each race with the highest chance of success pre race.
This applies to all three options operating within varied parameters, but using the data to our advantage. This is clear to see from the analysis both pre and post update.
Bet Focus
Straight Staking - Post Update Data
Target Profit - Post Update Data
Summary
Bet Focus received its trend analysis on the 22nd October 2021.
This service is the wild child of the family, without question it has the potential to hit phenomenal betting periods that can skyrocket the balance like no other betting strategy, and this is definitely part of the appeal and excitement.
However, it is not for everyone.
If building a portfolio you want to watch steadily increase over time absorbing your winning and losing days for each strategy, but overall seeing the balance incrementally increase without huge swings up and down, or losing periods affecting what would have been recorded as wins had Bet Focus not been running, then my advice is to leave Bet Focus to those who like the potential to win big and accept the volatility as the caveat.
I personally love the strategy, as it constantly finds high priced winning horses over a year that keep the balance in profit with the scope to propel the graph off the top of the telly.
This is not ideal if you're just looking for the solid reliable less volatile investments, and this is why I mention it.
If you're looking to run all services with a sensible head as investments that show a regular pattern of events and are not as sporadic as BF, you should select all the services minus Bet Focus.
If you want your betting investment to have the growth but with the edge of knowing your balance could shoot up any day, and can factor in the losing periods that will affect your profits with other services over the short term, then Bet Focus is a very exciting option that has a proven record of success to date.
The only adjustments identified by the software update with Bet Focus were the days of the week it performed better, so the strategy now operates on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.
The same range of runner selection, odds, and bet amount still applies, but with a tighter classification filter.
This has lowered drawdown, increased ROI for the straight staking option, and decreased the bet volume while producing a less volatile line of upward growth.
This is huge positive for members, as the profitability is still in the same range with minimized swings.
Reducing the drawdown over a year could only be assessed after more than a year of live betting.
The final result making it more selective over the reduced daily bet count, which for me works very well to still give the mix of excitement, but with a more robust controlled bet management.
With the Target Profit option things have come down for both profitability and drawdown, and for an option that is all about safety this is fine with me.
The Ratchet will be dropping off from June which uses Target Profit, which is the right decision as it has not proven to be worth the investment. However, this will all still be available within the bot as it's personal choice.
The focus on this strategy for me is with the straight option, as this is where the true USP exists.
You don't get any of the potential for big winners with target profit selected. It has shown to be a safe option, but if you're looking for that I would suggest Sure Favs Foundation with Target Profit selected.
Bet Focus at its core concept is about finding a winning strategy from the horses at higher odds to propel a balance with just a handful of winning bets.
With the adjustments this has been the focus of the update, and as it's managed to keep the same profitability, stop a downward trend, and reduce drawdown, which is exactly what I want from the service.
Looking at the points recommendation for Bet Focus I would stick with 300 points for straight and 100 for target profit.
No changes as it is still a volatile service albeit with reductions and extra safety added, it's not to the same level as the other strategies when it comes to consistent predictability, and I would still run Bet Focus using the extreme caution category of points allocation.
When looking at an entire twelve months betting 300 points aside for this strategy accommodates losing periods while still leaving enough in the tank to run the service comfortably, and with the potential to deliver high three figure profits.
Place Betting
Place Lay Multi Straight Staking - Post Update Data
Place Lay Multi Liability Betting - Post Update Data
Place Back Multi Straight Staking - Post Update Data
Place Back Multi Target Profit - Post Update Data
Place Lay Single Straight Staking - Post Update Data
Place Lay Single Liability Betting - Post Update Data
Summary
Place Lay Multi received its final trend update on the 26th December 2021, with just a single adjustment to the race class compared to the prior update that had been in play from the 21st November.
Place Back Multi is the strategy that received a trend update most recently on the 15th January 2022, and had the most changes from all the services.
Place Lay Single had its update applied on the 28th October 2021, with a wider range of betting and stop at profit feature included.
The updates applied to these services have transformed to be reliable consistent automated place market strategies.
Like any betting strategy using full automation it will have ups and downs, but you can see from the results above the present selection manages the bet process incredibly well.
The things that have changed for each strategy since the update starting with Place Lay Multi is the classification parameters have been targeted at a particular range compared to a broader spread as it was before.
The service still runs seven days a week, but with an odds exclusion that's been adjusted.
The number of runners has also been narrowed to catch specific outcomes that benefit place market betting, and this has definitely done the trick as the downward trend began curving upward from November, and since the 26th December banked +15 points MTP straight staking, and +4.18 points if opting for the BSP option.
The Liability betting option for Place Lay Multi is targeted more for BSP bettors, and the results post update compared to pre are night and day, with a significantly lower drawdown.
The stand out here is the profit achieved at BSP which is virtually the same as pre update, but with less than half the betting required.
Betting direct to the exchange MTP (minutes to post) has its caveats of a live low liquidity betting market, but with the new update we also reduce the bet numbers to a maximum of four within conditions that suit place betting more, so the liquidity issue is less prevalent.
Place Lay Multi for me since it's recent trend update has shown an upward growth pattern, and resilience to battle back from a poor start to a betting period and finish in profit.
The bet volumes make me feel comfortable letting it place automated bets for me, as it's operating with a lot more control over its selection criteria, combined with specialised targeted races.
The core concept for Place Lay Multi has always been to capitalise on laying horses in the place market often enough to edge an impressive profit over time. These changes mean we always have the best chance to make a profit.
From the races I have watched with Place Lay Multi we've looked in a strong position to win the bets in virtually all cases, and with some unlucky fallers removed affecting proceedings the balance would be a lot higher.
The selection process is where it needs to be right now, and the historical data backs this up for both liability and straight options.
The recommended points balance for Place Lay Multi can now come down from 300 to 200 points.
Place Back Multi had the most radical make over of all the services receiving a trend analysis update.
The most obvious being the strategy now only bets on one horse in each race, not multiple horses within a race.
When working through Researcher looking at the data and opportunities to bet, and to find a consistent winning horse to back in the place market, the software kept moving back to just one selection according to a jockey criteria.
What you have now is a strategy that operates with just 20% of the recorded drawdown to date, but with the same profitability, and an impressive line of upward growth allowing for the occasional inevitable drop off in form.
We now target a specific jockey group with this strategy when looking for the one bet.
Additionally, the service now only bets Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, which suits the bet type.
The profits for a single bet over a four day period each week is excellent, and well balanced for both BSP and MTP.
BSP only has a minimum bet amount when backing on Betfair at just £2.00, so this makes it a very appealing option for those who want to guarantee being matched and achieving the exact same results as published.
MTP betting like all the place betting options does come with the risk of a drift or dive in odds to affect returns, but this bet is aiming for the top end of the market where the liquidity is a lot more lively than the bottom end where Place Lay Multi will be hunting.
I realise it's still called Place Back Multi when it's betting on a single horse per race, but getting the service pushing upward and operating to its core concept has been my priority, the name itself secondary, and this will be changed before we reset the balances again in June.
The core concept for this strategy has always been to profit from backing in the place market, and this update achieves this with confidence.
The recommended points balance for Place Back Multi has now come down from 300 points to a straight 100 required over a twelve month bet period.
Place Lay Single had its parameters widened with the update across runners and certain jockey focused filters, but the max odds shortened, with a stop at a point profit of 0.90 applied, and this has worked well.
It will take more time for the betting to show potential with the stop at a win in place, but looking deeper at the data it's absolutely the best way to run it.
We have some days that are busier than others depending how they start obviously, and you can see this in the graph with the jagged edge periods of drawdown, followed by steady winning periods which are early wins, or days with little fuss to reach the target 0.90.
We still bet seven days a week with Place Lay Single, and like the other place betting strategies the BSP option is now a lot closer to MTP which makes it more appealing.
It is true that betting BSP with lay betting requires a £10 minimum stake as liability, but if this is your banking level this is a very smart service with a low drawdown that is now proving to be a solid addition to the portfolio.
The core concept for Place Lay Single is written in the name, to have that one place bet in qualifying races than wins enough for us to edge a profit in the place market, and of course build a balance over time with sensible staking.
Recommended points allocation for Place Lay Single has now come down from 300 to 100 points required per annum.
Place Lay Single is working to its core values with the new update, and providing we take the days that are more of a battle in our stride it has shown over the long term to weather these and return an attractive profit.
Racing Lays
Straight Staking - Post Update Data
Liability Betting - Post Update Data
Summary
Racing Lays had its trend update applied on the 30th October 2021.
The parameters have been widened with a strip down of unnecessary filters like the other services.
The focus is predominantly on the classification allowed for each bet, as well as the single win market odds positioning at the time of bet.
Since this filter was applied we've had two months with +30 points profit if straight staking, and circa +8 points across MTP and BSP each month if opting for liability betting.
The increase in daily bet volume over the seven days a week is a large contributing factor to the success, but with the stripped filters and focus on the key areas in each qualifying race recorded much better results.
The biggest difference to the service results can be seen looking at the graphs above compared to the Detailed Overview results found on the Racing Lays page: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/racing-lays
This should explain exactly why the filter has been added to the service instantly at a glance.
In addition to the filter the singularity of selections has helped the effectiveness. As each bet option, Main, High, or +5 Stop all now place exactly the same bets.
By the time we get to June and reset the balance there will only be one bet option within the bot for Racing Lays.
This is a strong move toward simplifying everything on site to focus on the outright most profitable option based on the accumulated data.
I will also add a Ratchet set of results and put the bot in process to place these bets for myself from June, with the quarterly reset added to the place betting strategies.
The core concept for Racing Lays has always been to find one horse per race that systematically over time will yield a decent profit, and build a betting bank.
It is acknowledged there will be losses along the way, but the strategy is largely a numbers game which is embedded into its DNA from when it first began. By stripping the unnecessary filters to increase bet volume it returns the service to this style of betting with the update added at the end of October.
We can reduce the previous recommended 300 points to 200 for Racing Lays.
Conclusion:
I could write a lot more and assess each aspect of the automated service to the nth degree in the greatest detail.
The proof is in the betting, and as I have waited with virtually all of them until there was a visible cross over to judge for yourself, I think the time was right to show you as promised how the data assessments came out with the trend analysis, and why the updates have been applied.
If you need any convincing put the results published above side by side with the Detailed Overview results for each service, and go through the stats and graphs.
Like everything that evolves over time the strategies will become better as we collate and utilize the data. They will over the years become more effective at returning a profit, these things develop as a service operates for long periods.
At this point of assessment with the current selection method in operation for each of the services I feel like I have my hands on the reins, even though they are fully automated and hands off.
The way they interact with each other over a betting days, weeks, months, and we will see years to come creates a portfolio of investment strategies that are very much showing how they will build a lot more momentum, and return large sums of money for members as time goes on.
The difference here with what I am doing at Exponential Bet compared to more vague offerings, or fly by night pop up businesses that come and go, is that I am digging my heels in and here for the entire duration to deliver services that make me personally a lot of money from their betting activity, while sharing this with whoever decides to join me.
I would like to share this with as many members as we can accommodate, but that is not the bee all and end all, it's about delivering a product I am personally satisfied with.
This is why I invest so much time into the development and content creation around the automated services, and everything Nigel and myself produce is unique and bespoke to the strategies. Nothing is off the shelf.
The automated strategies are maturing fast, and as things are now slimmed down to shave away aspects that needed to be tried in order to assess value, they are leaner and starting to flex muscles with the results I'm seeing.
Whether the outside world is taking notice is not my priority at this moment.
I made a conscious decision to withdraw from playing the game so to speak shortly after racing resumed from the Covid break.
That period took away about two thirds of my membership as racing was suspended for about two months, and this gave me time to step back, to assess where I am and what I want.
It was a blessing in disguise.
I decided to let the live betting run its course, and create something non reactive to members needs, but to build a strong portfolio of strategies through some trial and error, but resulting in a handful of primed services I can depend on that I have built from the ground up using live bet data of my own.
Collated with a set up designed specifically for the strategies, which identifies trends as the bet history builds, this was the main goal, to create something that has not existing in this way populating my own selection filters.
This was also when Nigel wiped my entire result history in 2020, which meant I only had a couple of months in the bank to work with and my previous year had gone. This has now been fixed so it can never happen again, but at the time I was lucky enough to have done the work and have excel records to rebuild.
It was a blow, but also a new start, and this has taken me to the point I'm at now able to understand every last detail of why and where these strategies operate based on live betting activity.
That cannot be guessed or judged without the actual history of bets. When initially creating something it remains to be proved correct.
I was happy recording my results and developing them with a proven track record from the actual bets placed in the public eye, not during a test phases as I used to do prior to launching a product.
This was a decision I made to step back and let the services grow on their own, and to use the data to drill them down to my concept over the months and years.
I've mentioned this before, but every investment has ups and downs, and virtually every start up will begin life in debt before achieving its potential, but I do understand that when forming a new business under public scrutiny it can be a challenge.
It is a learning curve, and I have definitely made mistakes to achieve success. Anybody who is single minded like myself to follow their beliefs regardless of outside distracting chitter chatter, has to have that long term vision in order to see past the short term challenges that can at times seem overwhelming.
I've kept my exposure low over the past year, and I could have had a hundred times the membership I have now, but at a cost of losing valuable time I required for development, and also to avoid attracting the wrong mindset of member.
What I've done so far, even the small changes compared to what's coming with the site information and layout has helped to minimise the floods of get rich quick members who couldn't see past a single days betting.
I get it 100% as that is my origin and entrance in to horse racing, but that is not Exponential Bet, as this is a bet investment website.
The time involved working with people who just don't get it when balanced with just not having them as members came out in favour of valuing time to put into achieving my goals with the site, and not taking the easy buck.
I learned that in order to find the type of member the services will suit I need to create a solid foundation of recorded success, and gather the data to add unknown amounts of value that can only come from actually being there, doing the betting, and living through it, instead of trying to analyse the past to predict the future while trying to promote that exact concept.
To work to create a concept that bridges the theory and reality gap is ultimately more rewarding, so that was my decision.
Having a few good betting months, and then going live with a service is how I used to do it.
I had to do this in order to be where I am today, to understand and get the knowledge and connections required.
The idea of promoting ideas that did not have the same data behind them I have now is something I could never go back to, but this is where 99% of the betting industry exists.
I will review the 'tipping services' out there at some point soon in a video, as the industry really has not progressed as I thought it would, if anything it has regressed.
Had it all been about the member money with me I could have retired on that by now just publishing new strategies to marketing lists every few months.
With me I published my ideas and concepts that have now translated across to what I am doing today, but with the foundations to support where I am, and my initial product was grounded on years of usage with the BSP Multiples.
I got inspired by the hands off aspect of automated betting, and the rest is history. When I launched a service it was after my own investment into it, and the results 100% genuine from live betting, but other than the BSP Dutching which had the years behind it, it was just a few months typically and I would feel confident enough to go live.
This was just inexperience in the betting industry and my learning curve required. The ideas when I re visit them now are actually mostly sound, and if I had time and wanted to I could refine all of them, all bar BSP Dutching which Betfair kindly decided to cease operating the service.
My point is, as I know I am veering on a ramble, the concepts for my initial automated ideas were all unique and well grounded, but I spent too much time after the concept on marketing and not enough on reinvesting into the development.
When Covid struck and Nigel deleted all my result history, it gave me the opportunity to reset everything, and this is why I have not been actively marketing, and happily just pumping out my results while working on the service development, re investing in to the concepts I conceived to get them to full potential.
I could of been posting daily attracting new member if all I cared for was the quick cash, as I know this can work. I could have had adverts, reviews, people pushing my website, and marketing left right and centre for the past twelve months, but I haven't.
I've been relatively quiet, and just posting my weekly updates with results and information about developments for projects I'm working on, and quietly delivering.
I'm not sure if this is too much honesty for some people, but for me its refreshing as I'm not at a point where the products are substantial.
In the early days I'd have third party products supporting my betting strategies, and I even ventured into getting a betting bot built that turned in to a living nightmare, but now it's all inclusive and one feeds from the other to keep building this absolute animal of result data we can all benefit from as the years push on.
The results above are not predictions for the future based on an accumulation of betting data, or just from a few months testing, or data purchased from Timeform or Betfair, or wherever, it's my data built into my strategy templates that have been betting since the 1st June 2020.
Two months after Nigel deleted my results, so I had my recorded history in Excel and the two months to work with Nigel to reprogram the betting software. Then from June 2020 I began recording the live bet results you see published on site.
I understand the selection methods and filters inside out as a result of this process.
You could wake me up in the middle of the night and ask me what class a strategy operates, how many runners are permitted, and if it has jockey restrictions, and I could answer you without rubbing my eyes.
Nigel also lives and breathes his work, and everything that is built for Exponential Bet since I partnered with him has been a labour of love for both of us.
Whereas other sites I have seen come and go, or launch under the same premise I had previously existed have lost control of the vision, or folded due to a failed brief launch, we have chipped away, stuck at it, got over the initial hurdles to get closer and closer to the concept for each strategy.
You may know the expression three feet from gold, I think I've mentioned it before in the news posts, but it means you could quit and give up on your goals of finding success when just standing three feet away from it and you'd never know.
We know what we have, and we could have cashed in on this a long time ago and disappeared in to the night like many others, but we are here not spinning the BS.
We haven't given up, and we haven't sold out. We are not going away and that is the fact of the matter, we both want to capitalize on the markets with our products personally, and for each and every member.
That is the difference between a corporate style template website set up to capture a niche in the market then f**k off to do the same again and again under a different guise, and what I am creating with Exponential Bet.
This business is a piece of me and Nige, and to get this far it's fair to say we are determined, single minded, and stoic.
The results above should demonstrate how we are investing into what we do, and this is only a part of it.
We will be shouting about this and getting back out there to tell the world what they are missing as we lead up to reset balances in June, but for now at least we are the best kept secret in betting, and I'm happy for it to stay that way for now.
If you have any comments or feedback for me, please do drop me an email anytime.
In Play Bet Club Update
Later this week sometime between Wednesday and Saturday I'll begin taking orders from registered members and get the bots set up, questions answered etc, then I'm aiming to start live betting next week.
I want to get all members added to the bot with stakes in place ready to go, and all that entails before I commence actual remote betting.
Basically, I want peace and quiet with every member ready and waiting on the starting blocks, then when the racing suits I'll just start betting.
This depends as you may know on the schedule and what races are covered within Bet Mover that meet the brief.
I'll never force a bet and only go for it when the software is giving me an indication it's a lay, then if all boxes are ticked and I think it's low hanging fruit I'll get involved.
We'll have some days and weeks which are crammed full of bets, and others with maybe only one or none if nothing makes the grade.
It's all about building the balance to the twelve point target for each member, it's definitely not a race, and I place no pressure on myself to bet daily.
If we have a decent run of races spread over a couple of months I'd predict this is a fair timeframe to reach target, but it may be sooner, or later if we have some losses to recoup.
Over the current bet period applying the selection method I've had two losses so far, so time will tell. I'll try to avoid these like the plague obviously.
It is racing and we will lose some bets, but you can see from the results below when I follow the strategy to the letter of the law we win a lot more than we lose, and such the balance has grown very well since I began recording the in play bets.
Sometimes it's a close call, but mostly I win comfortably with an average distance beaten from the lay bets at 21.1 lengths, and an average odds on the lay at 8.1 decimal.
I'm looking forward to actually getting started with this as it's all about flow and routine with my time, which I have maintained by continuing to bet using the same selection process without deviation.
We would have seen more bets placed had the software covered a wider selection of jump racing, which is another factor that affects my ability to bet.
Just getting of the mark though and starting to bet for everyone will be great, and with the result reporting Nigel is adding we will all have a clear view of how on average everyone is doing with the odds matched in play.
I've covered before some will do better than others over time given it's in play live betting, but as we have the limiters in place for each membership tier it will be very easy to assess this, and we keep track of everyone's individual results to determine who has reached target based on their point bet.
This means we can share the average returns people are getting compared to my own which I've done so far, and for all members your individual progress will be looked at each day I bet for you to assess how you're doing.
This doesn't mean I'll be calling you up for a chat about it, but if I see you've reach target I'll let you know that day, or you have urgent questions about your betting it does mean I can see exactly what's been matched for and help answer any questions.
When I set up the registrations later this week I will add a short video available after sign up, just demonstrating how to set up the bot and your staking showing the limiter in place, with some questions answered about this, including a PDF download covering what to expect, and my rules of membership so you have this as a digital copy.
You may notice from the results published below I've removed fixed stake betting, which is for the reason we can't offer it at the moment.
It may come later on at some point as a separate subscription.
We had lengthy discussions and number crunching last week on the subject and thought about how we could add it as an option, but it's impossible.
Reason being it would destroy the limited liquidity we have available for members given the liability on your bets is odds dependant, instead of being fixed.
It's just not viable until we see how our betting truly affects the markets once we get started, regardless of how fast it can achieve points profit.
For now it's on the back burner, so it's been removed from the results to avoid confusion.
Right, that's that for now.
Five bets placed last week in play betting, which I have recorded below, and on the In Play Bet Club page where you can register if you want to be invited to join.
In Play Bet Club Results - 26/10/21 to 23/1/22
Other News
We will introduce a new subscription option over the coming couple of weeks that will limit the max bet amount to a small number.
This will be a cheaper option for people wanting to join and start with a small amount, as the bot allows for below Betfair minimum odds betting.
For example, say your bet size is 0.50 you will need to times that by 100, ie 100 points growth over a month with your betting just to clear the £49.99 One Subscription price.
We will do this some months as you have seen, but we think a fairer option now we have the ability to limit max stakes would be to add this as a separate subscription level for people who want to follow the services using small stakes.
Details on this to follow, but we expect it to be ready in a couple of weeks.
The average odds result recording for more accuracy with MTP betting is still being worked on by Nigel, but it's coming close and I'm hoping to see a demonstration in operation over the next few weeks.
Given Betfair can balls up their daily result recording quite regularly it will be much better for us to not rely on this, and instead have our own records, plus it provides a clear view for exchange betting users.
We will still collate the results from Betfair for the AI Researcher and BSP data, but apply some extra rules on it to filter out their mistakes.
I mentioned last week the guides are expected around April to June, so other than to let you know I will include a Ratchet update to assess the impact of the trend update in next weeks news post, and include recommended points allotment, that's it from me this evening (now 1.12am, oops).
As always thank you for reading, I hope you found it useful and interesting.
I'll be back next week on the Tuesday instead of our usual Monday news post, as I can then do a full month result round up for January given it's the start of a new month.
Thanks again.
Ryan
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