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Sure Favs +162 Points Update

The image below shows Sure Favs Foundation with a side by side comparison using BSP or Exchange betting selected. Both of which are available for members to select within the bot.

Sure Favs is an automated favourite backing service operating using Cloud Bet Bot at Exponential Bet, find out more here:

Sure Favs Foundation 1.6.20 to 6.12.20.

exchange betting system

You can see on the top left BSP & MTP with the points, race stats below them, ie Points, Race Bets, Wins, Losses, Strike Rate etc.

Exchange betting is represented as MTP (Minutes To Post), which is when the automated bets check the odds and filters to see if they qualify as a valid bet, and then begin firing them to the betting exchange.

BSP betting is when you bet according to Betfair Starting Price, which is the price of each selection at the exact moment the race starts.

The Blue Line on the graph represents betting with Exchange (MTP) selected.

The Green Line on the graph represents betting with BSP selected.

Typically with most services the two lines will be closely matched, but with Sure Favs Foundation due to the nature of the betting it's been revealed the Exchange (MTP) option is presently performing a lot better.

What I mean is the bets are placed for this service after the race is due to start, precisely minus 1.07 minutes past post time.

In some instances this will mean the horses being loaded to the stalls may take their time and the race can be very late starting.

The price on the favourite will either drift in this time from the exchange odds taken at the time the bet are presented to Betfair, ie MTP, in which case we'd get more value with BSP selected given the odds at the time the race starts compared to when the bet was presented to Betfair would be higher.

What happens more often than not as you can see represented in the results published above, is the horse will be punted to a lower price, or traded down in odds as the market is held open for longer.

With the trackside pundits often talking up the chances of the favourite for longer, and as such creating an emotional surge of interest to drive the odds on the selection down.

Especially the case with the wide range of people using the exchange, ie traders, speculative punters, betting bots, arbers, matched bettors, and of course bad gamblers chasing losses.

As we are focusing on the favourite in the selected races with Sure Favs this will for obvious reasons be the centre of attention, and the money flooding in shows here to favour taking the odds ahead of the starting price.

What is also very interesting here with the difference between the two staking options, is the line of growth is more consistent with Exchange (MTP) compared to BSP which flattens around August.

With Exchange (MTP) following the same line of wins and losses of course as the bets will always be the same, but the extra profit gained with the exchange bets gives the graph line a more positive upward curve, and recovering from any dips with more force.

The fact both options have returned the profits shown with BSP at 99.29 and Exchange (MTP) returning 162.28 points is a positive sign the system is doing what it's supposed to do, but what I also like is at the bottom of the stats the Drawdown still sits in the 20's for both betting options.

There will always be a difference between the BSP and Exchange (MTP) results for the obvious reason direct to the exchange bets are sent to an active live ever changing market, where the money coming in and out is driving the prices up and down.

Whereas if you opt for BSP your results will always be the same as every other member betting this way, with the only difference the amount you stake.

This weeks results for Bet Focus below with the Straight betting option selected, and using either BSP or Exchange show BSP coming out on top.

With the prices on the selections drifting from when the exchange bets were placed in most cases, and giving more value on the winning bets if selecting BSP.

Bet Focus 30.11.20 to 6.12.20


You can find out more about Bet Focus here:

The BSP Points here you can see returned 72.75 over the week, compared to Exchange (MTP) returning 48.30 Points. This is a great week for Bet Focus and I'm pleased to be able to report such high returns.

However, over the period 1.6.20 to 6.12.20 using Bet Focus with Straight betting selected it reveals that Exchange has overall been the better option.

Bet Focus 1.6.20 to 6.12.20

flat staking

Betting with Straight selected using Bet Focus comes with the caveat of a very high Drawdown, which you can see here for this option is 122.13 for BSP and 96.75 if opting for MTP.

The risk reward here is obvious, with BSP 375.84 and MTP 448.60 Points Profit, which let's not forget is under six months betting using 1 point per horse for this strategy.

This strategy shows periods where it will dip then recover, but with the big priced winners pushing the balance to a new profit high when they arrive. Hence why a sensible approach to your points allotment is required if following the system Straight betting.

Please note that all these betting strategies show wins and losses, they don't win every day, week, or month, and are set up for long term betting plans.

Again though it demonstrates an interesting comparison with Exchange and BSP, and given the style of betting system targeting a difference range in the market with multiple horses included with Bet Focus, instead of just one stand out horse with Sure Favs Foundation the difference is not as striking in my opinion, albeit 17% more with exchange selected.

The consistently higher line with Sure Favs Foundation when selecting Exchange (MTP) given the circumstances of this being the red hot favourite in the race, and having more time pre race for the market to push the price down with this horse always being the stand out makes Exchange (MTP) a clear choice in my opinion.

This also transfers across if betting using Target Profit instead of Straight.

Sure Favs Foundation Target Profit 1.6.20 to 6.12.20


We see above that Target Profit betting using BSP has returned 61.72 Points, and Exchange (MTP) 78.32.

Target Profit operates as the name suggests, and places bets for a target amount members set within the betting bot. This betting option is available for all Exponential Bet backing systems.

Providing the odds on the selection are always above evens you will of course be putting on less than your set stake, given you're looking for the amount put in your stake box as your profit.

When a horse is below evens then your liability will be higher than your stake obviously as it needs to put more on to achieve the Target Profit.

However, as the results show the overall drawdown and risk for betting with Target Profit selected is less than Straight betting.

With a Drawdown of 9.82 for BSP and Target Profit selected over this betting period, in comparison to 24.03 using BSP Straight betting.

The points profit will be a lot higher for Straight betting in every instance compared to Target Profit, which is the case here showing 99.29 at BSP and 162.28 with Exchange (MTP) selected, in comparison to 61.72 BSP Target Profit or 78.32 Exchange Target Profit.

Having both options allows members to find the style of betting that suits them and fits in with their comfort levels.

I'll be updating results for all services on site tomorrow evening, and for some the difference between BSP and Exchange is very interesting, and may prompt a switch for some members.

I just wanted to share this info tonight for Sure Favs Foundation as for the reasons explained it's a huge 39% increase in profit if opting for Exchange over of BSP if selecting Straight betting.

The facility to be able to asses both options has only recently been included with my reporting software, so I'm pleased to be able to add this extra information to help members decide what route to take when using the services and options.

If you need advice on how to set up a points betting balance there is a useful section covering this under Money Management in the Frequently Asked Questions available here:



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