This is what my Grandfather used to say, lovely man, but terrible cabinet maker... :-)
In all seriousness, sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.
BSP Multiples for those who don't already know is being decommissioned by Betfair on Wednesday the 28th August.
This section of Betfair has allowed us to place multiple Dutch bets into one bet.
The example below shows two races with multiple horses included to create a Dutch bet in each race, the first returning at 1.21, the second at 1.12, giving a combined winning profit of 36% on the bet as it was placed as a double.
The ability to combine multiple selections in each race goes all the way up to an eight fold.
Here's a video I posted a while ago demonstrating how I place these bets.
I've used this section of Betfair since I began with the exchange many moons ago.
It originally had football and racing included, along with lay betting options for both markets.
You could actually place a lay betting multiple for example, which was very profitable and I wish it had remained long enough to share you all.
When BSP Multiples originated it was a well supported and an active part of Betfair. I used to run a community section on site dedicated to Dutch betting this way, which they promoted weekly on the main homepage.
Betfair wanted this part of the site to thrive at that time, and I was their 'golden boy' pioneering its growth.
However, when they added the sports book it all began to change as the focus shifted more towards attracting 'punters', and the development of this entirely new site.
I'm not dissing Betfair here as it's still the best exchange available, with nothing else coming close for market volumes, liquidity, and security. I make the bulk of my income from the site, so like everyone I have to roll with the punches.
At that time when they introduced the sports book, the exchange features and even reliability for quite a while fell on its arse, with the support we'd become accustomed diluted, and the obvious priority shift annoying quite a lot members.
With the dismantling of the BSP Multiples removing football around 2011, I began thinking it was only a matter of time before they removed the section completely.
BSP Multiples got tucked away down on the bottom left of the main page, and also over time the opportunity to use it in certain countries was also limited, which made my alarm bells ring.
The writing was on the wall, and although recent conversations with Betfair stated nothing was in the pipeline to remove BSP Multiples, speaking to people I know there etc, none of them hinted or knew anything about it.
In fact the notice that it's all coming to an end wasn't sent to the entire member base in one go from the marketing department, almost like they were indecisive. When I got word from a member days before official announcement, Betfair HQ management had no idea it was happening.
Other than receiving less than a weeks notice about the shut down, I'm actually feeling incredibly positive.
I've been planning for this for a long time, without knowing for sure when it's going to happen, but I did know the day would eventually come.
For me personally I've invested a lot of time and effort to promote this part of Betfair, and integrate BSP Multiples in to my own services.
I've created Dutch Betting Guide that uses BSP Multiples as the primary source of Dutching, which will now have to be removed, and re worked to base it on purely exchange based betting. ETA TBC on that job, I'd estimate before I December.
I'd also introduced a new One Dutch S2 bet for members on the 13th of this month, which over four bets saw an overall balance growth of 3%.
You can view results and more info on this on the main Dutch Betting page here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/dutch-betting
These results will soon be moved to the historical section though, given I'll no longer be able to publish the bet.
Considering the size of my membership I feel the start of the One Dutch S2 bets have been a contributing factor to Betfair closing BSP Multiples.
It's an exchange bet which they charge commission on the wins, but also linked to the sports book algorithm.
I suspect when they saw a win run of higher than average yielding BSP Multiple bets, bearing in mind I was running the system myself for quite a while to test it prior to release, and winning most of the time, I think their balance sheet took a dip, and it was a decision they decided to quickly move forward.
This is speculation as I don't know for sure, but it's a bit of a coincidence.
I've now deactivated the joining options for BSP Multiple betting, and will re do the sign up section over the early part of this week, ideally tomorrow. Including the One Subscription Plans, and other pages on my site this will affect.
Members of my BSP Dutching and One Subscription services will get an update on how this will affect their memberships.
Now for the good news...
From 2009 over a three year period, I ran tests to see if betting using BSP Multiples was equally as profitable as betting each race as a single Dutch bet.
Betting using the BSP Multiples definitely had some advantages, I've covered these extensively in previous blog posts, however betting this way compared to single Dutch bets over this testing period did not return more profit, the returns were equal.
I'd already been preparing the Remote Dutch Betting service for a higher bet volume since before it was officially launched, and working with Nigel to add these selection parameters.
Members of the service will know already from my daily emails that over the coming weeks the bet volume's will fall in line with pre launch predictions, and this is based on the One Dutch S2 filtering process being introduced.
The fact Betfair have withdrawn a section of their site I'd both invested time and effort in to, and was also popular with my members is a pain in the arse without doubt, but in the grand scheme of things it won't affect our profit growth.
It will centralize the Dutching service to Remote Dutch Betting, which will begin from the 3rd September, and the betting criteria will from then run the S2 bets.
The cost for Remote Dutch Betting will now increase to the all in one price of £29.99 PCM from the 3rd September for new members.
If you're thinking of joining Remote Dutch Betting, now is a good time while it's still at £19.99 PCM.
Existing Dutching members will not be affected by this price change for Remote Dutch Betting, your membership will remain the same.
The Remote Dutch bets have returned 9 winning bets with a 100% strike rate, and 2.2% balance growth so far since launch this month.
With the introduction of the S2 filtering process using the Focus Ratings R5 data, my annual profit growth prediction for Remote Dutch Betting would be circa 150% upwards using a percentage of stake betting.
All BSP Multiple members will be sent set up info this week to move across to the Remote Dutch Betting service.
As stated, your membership will remain the same, you'll no longer be required to place the bets yourself, these will be done for you remotely.
We'll finish preparing the platform for the S2 filtering process to run for everyone, and I'll get each member up to speed with set up info sent ahead of this.
I've got a bit of site and platform work to do with Nigel to get this in line over the course of this week, but as stated I've been ready for this now for a long time, and I know without question both methods of betting return the same profit, so it's just a case of now deciding with Nigel how to place the bets using Cloud Bet Bot.
On a side note, for me personally it means my mornings can now be dedicated to developing other services such as Trading, the automated betting systems to be added to Cloud Bet Bot, working on the high yielding automated JV system, and of course Football Trading.
As the Remote Dutch Bets get placed close to each race starting, as I follow the card according to the selection criteria.
Sorry to side track, but I'm actually over due with a Football Trading post, and it will be my next blog later this week after my meeting with Trade On Sports on Friday.
Bringing all Dutch bets in to one placement method will simplify a lot of things on site, the way I work, and also reduce any confusion for new members about what to join, as all of the energy and focus will go towards producing winning Dutch bets each afternoon when betting opportunities are available.
Considering I own the selection process, the Betfair exchange still exists, and I'm working with the best in the business, Nigel from Cloud Bet Bot, and Keith from Focus Ratings, this change from Betfair will overall have zero impact to the results, and in fact I estimate it will be the start of a new era of profitable Dutch Betting at Exponential Bet.
If you've any questions please send me an email, and I'll get back to you asap.
As you can guess I'm up the wall busy this week switching everything across, so please bear with me getting back to you, but I always aim to personally reply within 24 hours.
Thanks
Ryan
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