Hi,
I have performance data for JV MK2 and Remote Daily Betting within this post you should find interesting, and some news regarding the Trading Service upcoming release.
However, before I get to this I need to cover the latest update on the Coronavirus, and how this will affect UK Horse Racing.
This afternoon it was announced that all UK horse racing would take place behind closed doors, and would be assessed at the end of March.
You can find out more on this here: https://www.britishhorseracing.com/
This comes in to effect tomorrow 17th March at Taunton and Wetherby..
It's as predicted in my recent Coronavirus blog post, but I have to say this could all change and we may be left without racing for a period of time.
Given France has completely shut down all racing for a month, I would not rule out this happening in the UK if the sport gets affected, ie jockeys, trainers, racecourse staff etc.
Coronavirus will impact us all in some way, businesses and daily life will be disrupted, and this includes the betting industry and Exponential Bet.
I personally feel sorry for the first time in my life for the bookies at the racecourse who do not operate online.
I mentioned that we would prepare for this if racing is shut down as we appreciate you’re paying to receive a service, and if it looks unlikely to run for a lengthy period of time, then we will be extending your subscription through the period.
How we do this either via PayPal, our digital product distributor, or a more manual method is yet to be decided, but we believe this is the fairest way to deal with any paid subscriptions.
On a brighter note, racing is continuing albeit behind closed doors, and as a result we can carry on as normal in comparison to other sports which have completely shut down like football.
I personally feel it will continue like this for racing, but we shall see.
Looking at our current services and starting with JV MK2 Betting System over the past month, we are +18.07 points profit if betting using BSP.
We're winning more days than we lose, the strike rate is excellent at 41% over this period, the growth allowing for losing days is steady, and the average odds of the bets give us a competitive edge.
At the current growth we are on target to reach +200 points profit growth over a twelve month betting period.
We need to allow for the ups and downs along the way of course, as it's a betting system, and the 8 losing days from the 17th Feb to the 16th March confirm we do not always have it our own way, you can see this in the graph.
However, looking at the data provided by Nigel today for the JV MK2 we look very solid, and capable of maintaining the current upward trajectory. In fact, we've room to manoeuvre and squeeze out more profit, or just utilise this information to provide a safety buffer.
The data just confirms my initial assessments during live testing, and back up the selection process as being both robust and value focused.
I know we could do twice as well if I expanded the range slightly, but this comes at a cost of longer drawdown periods. At present my mindset is if it's not broken don't try and fix it.
I will in the future at some point offer a more aggressive approach to running the JV MK2 with this broader selection range, but this has no set ETA with other priorities ahead in the queue.
It is reassuring to know it's a possibility to double the annual profit growth, and once I'm ahead of my current work load it will be on my radar. I'll implement this for the members more comfortable with longer losing runs to achieve higher overall growth.
You can find out more and subscribe to JV MK2 here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/jv-system
Keeping on topic with longer drawdown periods let's take a look at RDB Straight, which is part of the Remote Daily Betting service.
This is also a backing strategy like JV MK2, but RDB Straight has a higher average odds, a wider selection range, with a lower strike rate.
The selection method for RDB Straight is completely different to JV MK2.
If running all automated betting systems on Cloud Bet Bot they will never overlap in a negative way.
This means that as volatile as RDB Straight can be, and this is definitely not to everyone's taste, you can run this alongside JV MK2.
+15.74 points profit the past month betting period puts this below annual target of +500 points if continuing at this rate, but with RDB Straight as shown in the results it can swing rapidly, and be more volatile than any other Exponential Bet system.
You can see the difference in the graph above, and a month by month assessment will not give a clear indication of where we will be over a twelve month betting period.
As an example from the 12th Jan 2020 when I began publishing results for this strategy the balance growth is +65.29 points, which puts us a lot closer to target at this stage in the year.
The best way of looking at RDB Straight is that of a luxury item. If you can afford the gamble with it then it may return an incredible profit over the year, but it will be a roller coaster ride, and their is no guarantee we may not leave the tracks during a loop.
I'm excited to run it, and my allotted bank is an amount I'm comfortable with. According to the data and live testing we should return there or thereabouts predicted ROI.
You need the right attitude from the offset to run RDB Straight, or in my opinion you may as well not even begin, just being upfront.
All the data I have is there to help you decide if this is for you, but if all goes to plan, and it's going okay so far, this is a positive addition to the automated betting portfolio running with Cloud Bet Bot.
You can find out more and subscribe to RDB Straight here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/dutch-betting
If you had ran both RDB Straight & JV MK2 using an equal betting bank and points percentage split, using a £100 stake per bet, and opting for BSP to guarantee the same outcome on each bet over the past month, you would have banked £3381.06.
Even using a smaller bank of £10 per bet, you would have nearly covered an annual membership to all Exponential Bet services with a One Subscription plan within a month, which you can find out more here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/betting-system-sign-up
Which brings me to the final fully automated betting system running using Cloud Bet Bot under the Remote Daily Betting service, RDB Dutch.
This is a fixed liability lay betting strategy, and we haven't had a great month, quite literally breaking even.
Without a doubt running RDB Dutch over this betting period has been a slog. With such a high strike rate and number of winning days compared to losers, we'd expect to see a profit, but given these are fixed liability lay bets being placed to BSP, albeit to a target odds, this can mean it doesn't take too many losing days to cause a set back.
Now that's the downside covered, the upside is that we're still operating at a high strike rate, and overall since the 12/1/20 up +10.34 points, £1034.11 if betting using BSP and a £100 stake per bet.
The 20 losing bets over this bet sequence were the difference obviously between finishing in profit, or as we are now at break even, but actually provided me with a lot of useful data, some of which I covered in a recent member update.
For example, RDB Dutch is not best suited to major events such a Cheltenham, and after a couple of days witnessing this at the festival I decided to program side stepping the remaining two days, which did prove to be the right decision missing a couple of losing bets.
With that said, even factoring in the losing Cheltenham bets the system still made a profit each day it hit one, which given it's operating far lower returns per bet compared to RDB Straight and JV MK2, this shows a great resilience to come out of these losing spells quickly for a fixed liability lay system.
When looking longer term at your betting with laying in particular, these are the sort of things you look at as positives given the wins need to be recovered over more bets than standard back to win betting systems. Although it was a slog, it was an educational and necessary one.
You can find out more and subscribe to RDB Dutch here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/dutch-betting
These systems run fully automated without any emotion, they select horses solely on the parameters set regardless of the event, so factoring in a few barriers to prevent this going forward will help protect against some of the dips experienced running RDB Dutch over every applicable race day.
Data Nigel has provided for JV MK2 has just come through for both RDB systems at the time of writing this post, but I've no intention of reinventing the wheel, I'm more than happy with the foundations of these strategies as they are now, and will be looking to eliminate some obvious banana skins for both RDB strategies.
Given we have some high volatility with RDB Straight anything to smooth the graph to a steadier upward curve would be welcome, and for RDB Dutch to avoid unnecessary situations over the race week that historically show a record of being difficult races.
That's just common sense and good admin to stay on top of these things, but the selection process and the way Cloud Bet Bot operates is set in stone.
Given we have three fully automated betting systems running online via the cloud, and two of the three made a decent profit betting BSP over the past 30 days, with one them breaking even, this is not bad at all.
Anything I can do after assessing the live race data to improve on this will of course be a positive for everyone. What makes this data so useful is that it's not just back dated race information, it's all come from actual live betting from the systems themselves, specific to each strategy allowing for a deeper analysis, which makes a huge difference.
Looking back at the past month it's flown by for me, with some significant changes on the site and big decisions being made to improve services.
The results I'm delighted to report mirror the hard work that's gone in by Nigel and myself to drive these automated systems in the right direction.
The potential disruption to racing with Covid 19 and the impact it will have on racing in general has forced my had with The Trading Service, as this is due for release on the 22nd March.
A date set before it looked likely we would encounter any interference with racing, but now taking in to account racing will take place behind closed doors, and we may well have to deal with some downtime, I have to assess how this spectator less racing will affect the live betting exchange.
It would be foolish of me to release a new Trading Service containing a back to lay trade strategy at this time, when I have no idea how the markets will behave due to the way racing will now run.
Will the lack of racecourse betting have some effect on the markets, or other factors potentially cause some market weirdness, I really have no answers as it's an unprecedented global incident affecting us all.
I only have to visit my local supermarket to realise this is something I've never witnessed in my lifetime.
What this means for the upcoming Trading Service release is that I'll be taking this week to assess how the markets react, and making some trades to test the water.
If I find that this has had no impact to the back to lay strategy contained in the next trade update, then I'll reschedule the release to 31st March. However, if I do find the markets reacting oddly I'll postpone release until things return back to normal.
I do not want to launch a new service based on markets that reacted in a specific way pre-race at the time of writing, that now operates completely different due to a global pandemic.
Words I never imagined I'd ever be writing...
I just wanted to give you a heads up on this, as I know a lot of people are waiting for the new trading update, but I don't think I need to explain or labour the point any more than I have.
Let's just see what happens to the exchange this week, and I'll let you know asap after I've given it a thorough test drive. All being well, we'll be off and running with this by the end of March, which is my ideal scenario.
I've put a lot of work in to the new trade update, and looking forward to sharing it.
Days like these put a lot in perspective however, and other priorities need to take priority like our health and well being.
I'm personally still self isolating due to displaying minor symptoms, and I hope you're all taking good care of yourself.
It is still business as usual at the moment though, racing is scheduled, and as we're running automated systems online we are not presently affected.
If the situation changes I'll post another news update covering this on the day, and as stated if it's a lengthy break we will work something out for members, but for now looking back at the past month of automated betting things are not too bad.
Stay well.
Ryan
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