Following on from yesterday's email I have a fair bit to cover in today's blog post, but I'll try and go over everything as concisely as possible.
This should be useful information for all Exponential Bet members.
Without further ado let's get to the nitty gritty.
In today's post:
Setting up a bet portfolio & details of a software update.
A not so quick look at the latest results.
In Play Bet Club news.
Setting up a Bet Portfolio & Software Update
I get asked a lot about what services combine well and how best to set up strategies to work concurrently.
This of course leads on to how to create a points balance for the selected services within the bot, and from then on it's over to you the member to add your stakes, activate the software, and you're off and running.
Often it's a case of lost in translation from the final stage, as what provide as advice gets implemented differently, I don't get the opportunity to correct it, or I don't get asked at all about how to set up so it's done by members without reading or watching any of the content available, which can lead to results not matching my published figures each week, month, quarter etc.
I provide information that requires people to watch, read, and to understand what they are doing before setting stake and activating the bot, and this puts that responsibility onto members.
In the main I would say the vast majority of members get this exactly right, and the set up content both in PDF and video format do the job.
However, there are a number of members where this does not work, and they require some further hand holding.
In addition to this, members that do understand the staking, but having a recommended setting would benefit them.
Having this would be the gold standard so to speak, and it would match exactly what is being reported within the results update, i.e. 1 point per bet, or 1% of bank Ratchet growth over each bet quarter, and so on. There would be no deviation due to the ability to customise staking at will, which is how it is right now.
With the freedom the bot allows to interpret points allocation and run different bet options, such as target profit, fixed liability and fixed stake direct to the exchange, or with BSP, and with a ratchet percentage you can set at any level, this means the bot can be tailored to bet with an array of wild and often not so wonderful configurations.
Someone could win a huge amount very quickly with some of the setting options, and then go broke the next day.
After which I would receive a not too polite email telling me it was my fault, when they would have basically gone rogue and not followed any of the clear advice given with the information provided.
I have lost track how many times I have reiterated these are all long term investment strategies, all apart from In Play Bet Club, which can be ran as a long term investment of course, but it has the additional scope to be used as an income generator.
The Ratchet setting also adds this extra dimension to a few of the automated services each quarter, but they all require some money management and long term planning, which is the point I'm making.
You need to know why you have selected the service you're running, why you have a chosen staking plan, and know how each service has the point allocation you have activated in the bot. Not everyone has this knowledge before setting the bot to run their betting, and that to me is a bit dangerous.
Hence why I'll be adding an extra safety filter between the joining and starting bot process.
It is taking up too much of my time, energy, and emotions, as all I want is for everyone who joins to achieve the same returns I publish online.
Yes there will be some differences with MTP, i.e. direct to the exchange betting options for obvious reasons, it's an exchange and prices move with the liquidity.
In addition to this, if you're in a different country you have different Betfair rules and commissions applied, so this will also need to be factored in with some scope to adjust your stakes and percentages accordingly, or follow me to the letter and just allow for the differences.
These are things that are out of the control of Exponential Bet, but we do our best to accommodate all scenarios with the wiggle room in the settings.
We can't possibly list every result for every combination of scenarios, and in fact my suggestion is reduce what we publish and automate the set up process to a set template following the published results.
This would still allow the option to customise if this is what you are required to do for reasons explained above.
However, it could be because you're just a mad lad and you go hard or go home.
In which case you are on the wrong website, so if you're the latter don't come crying to me if you use my long term bet investments as get rich quick schemes, and it all comes crashing down after an inevitable set of losses along the betting timeline.
Honestly I get this a lot, people join, set the Ratchet to 10% or something even worse with a small Betfair bank, have a few winning days and think it's the best thing since sliced bread, go even larger with the staking, and wallop a single losing bet destroys a balance.
It's crazy in my opinion, but I understand why the option to twiddle with the settings may suit some people who aren't as daft as this, and just need the adjustment feature to counteract the high commissions, or imposed rules of betting in their country.
Even more so, some people are smarter than me and can see betting opportunities to make more money using the flexibility the software provides, so the features that are there at the moment need to remain as an option.
This is why I will work with Nigel to have my recommended settings at start up with the software, but with an override slider to open up every bet option currently available.
It will mean your current set up as an existing member will not be changed, but should you decide to slide to recommended settings it will then give you less to select, and you will be required to enter some information such as start bank for each service before you can activate the bot.
That will then auto calc your point per bet value, and you will be betting according to the reported results on site.
New members joining for the first time will begin with recommended settings selected, and of course for new and existing members I will provide instructions on what the changes mean and how to set things up ahead of making any live updates to the bot itself. This is just a heads up that I will be implementing these changes as soon as possible.
The results published on site will then reflect my recommended setting options only, which makes sense to do it this way.
Publishing multiple set up options I know is presently confusing people, regardless of how I word and explain it with my introduction content, everyone has different experience and knowledge of betting whether it be automation, or manual.
The point is these things require a little learning and I need to simplify it further to remove the having to watch and learn aspect, and insert this into the actual bot set up process.
The watching and learning is very important for people who decide to join and run my services, but those are are skipping ahead are in most cases missing out, and when I receive an email letting me know their rogue staking just messed up their balance, a piece of me dies inside. I need all the pieces I have remaining trust me on that, so things will now become what they should have been from the start.
This means that an immediate recommended bet portfolio of services will be presented as my advised approach, and the only stake set up you could use from the get-go would be the advised level, which is according to recommended points based on what bank you start with.
As stated you can override this and go off-piste, but that will be up to you. I won't be required to explain your results and do a full analysis to drill through differences in recorded results and your own, and the responsibility of your staking set up will be your own. As it is now, but I am being drawn into too much discussion due to the bot being wide open to customisation without a recommended option.
Members can use my recommended settings, which if they are registered with a One Subscription will create an automatic portfolio of my suggested bet options, with staking configured to follow one template, which is what I will then trim down to reflect on site.
However, should a member select to override this, they can of course still view my recommended portfolio with the bet strategies on site, and adjust their staking accordingly to follow each option manually.
I want it to be fair for everyone, yet bullet proof enough to provide the option not have to think about calculating points, and making sure you understand how a ratchet calculation works, and knowing what services are performing the best, although really it is advised, but with the recommended option you will be put on to highest yielding strategies that operate within the start bank you set up. Which will be close to the extent of the manual input required when using recommended settings.
That's all I want to cover for now, but this is something that I'm deadly serious to implement asap, and after extensive development testing with Nigel will be ready to introduce.
More info on this to follow.
If you are interested in joining any of the Automated Betting Strategies and want to operate more than one concurrently, the One Subscription plan is the most value for money.
When betting with a long term plan you want your membership fee to be as low as possible and not eat into your profit, and the one plans reduce in cost the longer the membership term.
You can join one of the start plans, monthly, quarterly, six monthly, yearly, or five yearly subscriptions here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/betting-system-sign-up
A Not So Quick Look at The Results
Last week was good for Place Betting, with Place Lay Multi in particular returning +9 points profit betting MTP.
It was also positive to see Place Lay Single finish in profit over the week, after a month of poor results for this place betting option.
It was too little too late to save the profit for the month and ratchet quarterly cycle with PLS, but looking at the racing season ahead over the coming months I think it may have turned a corner. The betting volume has reduced and the filters favour this time of year.
Place Lay Multi and Place Back Multi had a flat month just straight staking, but all finished in profit over the Ratchet cycle, Place Lay Multi specifically did well returning +30.46 points profit.
Especially considering it had a run of losing bets when the ratchet calc was high, which means the stake had increased every profitable day the balance went up during the quarter, but even dropping -49.80 points drawdown PLM finished strong to land a decent profit.
Place Back Multi and Place Lay Single I expect to do better as we enter jumps season again, with Place Lay Multi also benefiting from the increased inconsistency with results making lay betting a better option. I think PLM has already shown a steadying and hint that it is coming up to a decent run of wins, so ideally the jumps will see the service finish the year in good form.
Sure Favs had a more consistent month for two of its betting options, Main and High, as they both did well over August flat staking and with Ratchet applied over the three month bet period.
Every bet option for Sure Favs Main or High finished in double figures last month, which was the same last month, and for a longer more consistent period for Sure Favs Main.
The Foundation option for Sure Favs didn't fair as well across August and dropped points for all bet options. Foundation starts September with a trend update applied, which I expect to increase performance while reducing bet volume. I hope to look at the coming months with this strategy and begin to show an upturn in performance.
The Ratchet results for both Main and High are the stand out though, with Sure Favs High returning +20.34 points profit, and Sure Favs Main recording +45.76 points profit across June to August both using a 1% Ratchet setting.
Racing Lays as I mentioned in yesterday's update had an astonishing seven days betting last week, with 22 bets and no losses, and a total of +21.56 points profit recorded.
Over the month Racing Lays using exchange straight, i.e. MTP betting made +17.92 points, which was quite the comeback after a -27.80 points dip in form midway through the month.
You can see this in the graph below, and how the service bounced back to end the period in profit.
This is with a very impressive 13.58 ROI and winning bet run of 24 against a losing run of 4. Average odds at 5.21 is where we need to be with the strike rate at 82.58%, but the drawdown at -27.80 definitely made a dent in our potential profits over the month.
It's just the rub we have to accept with any investment or betting strategy in order to achieve the profit, there will be losing periods.
If we believe in the investment and process we know overall we're able to absorb this, and come out the other side with the balance heading the right way.
If we quit at the dip we have no chance whatsoever of recovering losses to push ahead to a new profit high, that is the fact of the matter.
Sometimes it will take longer and be hard work, which for some who follow Racing Lays and already banked +70 points the previous quarter ratchet betting it was too much to drop -27.80 points and they stopped betting. Subsequently missing the recoup of losses to finish with a small profit on the month.
My advice is to only bet with these strategies if you have a long term view, as the recommended points balance for Racing Lays Ratchet is 200 points.
We ate in to this over the month if you started at the beginning of August approx. -12 points, which is accounting for the profitable start then decline in form before recovering. You can see this below.
If dropping 12 points is something you can't handle when you have set up a 200 point balance for this very purpose, then betting possibly is not for you.
I mean this with the greatest respect btw, as I only want people to join who can set up properly from the start, and expect to have winning and losing periods to reach target profits. The last thing I want is for people to rage quit and then miss subsequent profits.
This example from Racing Lays last month is a great demonstration exactly why we have recommended points balances for each services, and for each bet option, as they perform in such a way that means they sometimes need time to correct the balance.
If you started betting at the point the service began losing last month, you still would have broke even and be in profit this month. If you stopped betting you lost money, and would not have been prepared enough.
I make no apologies for pushing this point across to the nth degree, all I want is members who are set up right and can handle the ups and downs to achieve the published results. Which is why I will be adding recommended settings asap.
Bet Focus is one of the services that's definitely set up for the long term, as the first 13 months saw it rise from zero to + 610 points banked, then dropping over the next 13 months to +360.91 points, making a gradual decline of 39.36% since reaching its highest point.
The recommended points for this service is 300 start up, so if you started betting at the highest point and missed the growth that had come prior, you would be -249.09 points down, and getting close to tanking that bank.
It would require a reinvestment to continue betting, and my advice would be to do so if it reached that point. Even after a losing month just gone, there was a winning month prior, and we have seen a gradual slow down in the decline. The signals are showing this is bottoming out on the drop, and what follows will either be evening for longer, or we could be looking at another period of growth.
To be fair, you would have been very unlucky to join at the exact highest point and invested since then with your 300 points, it could have happened though. I highlight this specifically to demonstrate this service is one that can often win very big at high odds, but also is the most volatile, and has always been advertised as such.
You could say it's a luxury item with the scope to have phenomenal win periods, but can as shown also have prolonged losing spells.
If you had been in from the start you're still +360.91 points better off allowing for the 39.36% decline, but depending when you entered the service is operating Bet Focus you will have been on the same trajectory over the past 13 months.
I expect Bet Focus to have winning and losing years, more so than any other service which in the main I expect the rest to make a profit year on year, or at worst dip but come nowhere near allotted points as Bet Focus has since starting to dip from its highest point.
If you follow Bet Focus you know it has potential for months reaching three figures, but also know it can be hard work. As it aims for the value bets in each qualifying race. Take this in to account if running this strategy, and if the balance hits bottom you would need to reinvest to be in the game to reach longer term profits.
I mentioned just as we began slowing the decline, approach a couple of months ago, that I think this coming jump season will be good for the service, and I still believe this to be the case.
However, do not all jump on Bet Focus now and go wild with your staking, take everything into account I have listed, and ensure you're always betting in your comfort zone.
If the service goes on to return another 600 points over the next year or so, I am sure all involved will forgive the recent decline, but it may take longer to find traction given the way it is set up to find selections, and sometimes in racing when betting on the higher odds horses to win it can be fine margins.
The gods of fine margins were obviously in our corner for the first year of betting, but not of late, but we know the service has the potential to repeat this, and this is why I keep it in my portfolio as the outside chance to return a large windfall.
It is not a recommended setting service, but if you want a wild card strategy that can bring in winners at high odds, this is the only service I offer that operates this way, but it is strongly highlighted as a long term prospect that may require further money management.
I have stated this many times with Bet Focus if you check back over previous news updates, this is nothing new, I just reiterate things to ensure the messages is clear.
The recommended settings will help me to filter these things more when added to the bot.
Last month Bet Focus dropped -15.59 points betting exchange straight, the month before made +12.81 points profit, which is partly why I mention it is slowing down the decline given we have dropped -2.78 points over the past two months. Compared to -41.59 the two months prior this is a definite slow down, and looking at the upcoming racing as can see a transitional period, but still approach with caution.
Never let it be said I don't focus on the losses as much as the profits, as they are all there to see and updated weekly.
I'm really getting on my high horse today. Apologies, it's just a lot of work and a busy period, so I am looking at everything and how I can make things work better for you and be more effective with my time..
In Play Bet Club
This month we get the wheels in motion with the In Play Bet Club, and both myself and members are raring to get going repeating as many win cycles as we can each year.
I also have my office being built this month, which I will be overseeing, with the electricity and internet being fitted, all my office furnishings moved from storage and installed, which I have an ETA of early to mid October to be in and settled.
I'm not exactly short of resources though, as I have a very nice garden room and top spec laptop I've been working on since we moved in earlier this year, so no complaints. I will have to manage this office install though around my work and starting IPBC.
The missus is also off to Tuscany with her friends for two weeks which is both a blessing and curse, as I will be up very early each day walking the dogs first thing which is usually her job, I'm on the afternoon early evening shift usually, but now I'll be on both for a couple of weeks from the 10th. Good for the waistline, and god knows I need that.
The dogs are amazing and very well behaved, but they still need love and fussing obviously, so I'll be spread quite thinly over September.
I'm explaining this only to let you know as an IPBC member it will be later this month when you have the data to assess, which will get the show on the road. Then I want to take feedback, have you check for any errors in the sheet, and depending how I present the data there may be a vote of betting approach.
Where I'm up to with the data accumulation is I have from the 1st December to 1st September entered, I think that's enough to go along with, but I may bring it fully up to date prior to uploading it to a secure member section. We will see.
The raw data itself which is well over 600 races covered has been cleansed on another sheet to tighten up the selection process parameters, and then on another to drill through looking at best betting days and times. This is all very interesting, and you will see why I have worked through it like this properly when I share it, as I'll add an accompanying video.
From here I am now taking the concept of the selection process and mechanising it over the selected days and times derived from the previous cleanse, then from there I will give it a final live work through to fine tune it. As by mechanising it this adds scope for so many more selections, which can then be filtered for better strike rate and profit growth.
I hope this is making sense, but I said I would add and explanation of where I'm up to, and this is close to the final stage of live play through from the mechanised selections. What do I mean by mechanised!? Well, it either is a bet or it isn't, there is zero grey area, and in fact Nigel could create a bot to follow rules and place the bets.
That's not what is going to happen of course, as the true value of working within strict parameters is to still have that live information that only Bet Mover provides.
By having a list of bets to be placed according to these exact rules and then having the space within this period to add more value, I also need to ensure I can be matched for everyone at a low enough average odds. This is where I am at right now. Finishing the mechanisation process before going over it with a live betting view.
As it is mechanised it is taking a fraction of the time it took to initially trawl though each race and validate the process.
Looking at what I have ahead of me I expect to have the data to share near the end of the month, possibly the week before, and then it shouldn't take too long to get your feedback and make any adjustments based on this before we set blast off IPBC.
It will mean a lot to me to have this service operational and running in such a way I can plan my schedule around the betting, and with the part mechanised approach it will make my working days when operating the service more productive, while giving you a service you know is purely data driven, but managed by a human, me, if you can call me human.
The prime joy of running this will truly be hitting target for the first time, and then getting in to a rhythm to keep doing it again and again for you.
I'll next update you when I have the data ready as explained, as today's long blog update is a one off until then. I needed some time away from the numbers, and what better than creating a news update to bring you all up to speed.
I'll be back at it from tomorrow, but as stated expect it to be the final week of this month when I'm ready to share the data, and will publish a secure member section to make it easy for you all to login and catch up with me again before we go live.
When the office is ready I can tell you that will make life much easier for me, because as nice as my working situation is now, no moaning, I will be able to do more video content and then head toward the 1 on 1 training, while having my own base to sit and work through the week placing as many qualifying in play bets as possible.
It will also mean I won't be fart bombed by my English Pointer Fern, who while writing this has walked past me twice into the garden, and I've had to type with my head in my sweater. That I will not miss at all when I get in to the new office, as she will be banned.
We're very nearly there now, and I will have data to share later this month as mentioned before we commence live in play betting.
After we get started the exciting stuff begins obviously, and I will be working to reach target profit as quickly and often as possible. I'll be sharing weekly progress reports as the balance steadily increases, and uploading content to the member area so you can all track your own results against mine.
Each member will of course achieve different results given odds movement, but as everyone crosses the finish line and reaches the 12 points, we will be in touch and readying you for the next cycle, or giving you the option to continue on the current cycle.
Looking at the schedule I'm creating I do not expect to be having much time off, just the usual for holiday's and general down time, but I will want to work as much as I can over the set days to get us all to 12 points regularly.
Okay that's it from me today.
I was intending to add a rant about something bothering in the betting industry, but I'll save that for another time given the length of today's post.
Thanks for reading if you got this far, I very much appreciate it.
Ryan
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