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Expo News 30th August

In today's news post:

  • The weekly automated betting strategy summary.

  • Upcoming site improvements explained.

  • Ratchet reset instructions.

  • In Play Bet Club update.


All results are now updated and available to view at www.exponentialbet.co.uk.


If you want to examine any results in detail simply locate Betting Strategies from the main menu, then select the service you wish to view.


The Week in Summary


Another week behind us with some strategies making a profit and pushing their own overall points totals to a new high point. While others either broke even or thereabout, while a few dipped slightly.


All strategies operating within points allocation, running as expected over the long term, and absolutely zero drama.


Today is another off the cuff summary of the week, but the end of month numbers will be updated on Wednesday or Thursday daytime in a structured news post.


I'll go to town and dissect how we got on this month, look at where we are on the timeline regarding hitting expected targets for these services, and what's required in next weeks news blog.


Just to give you a heads up I am still moving home and permanently working from my laptop with the office packed away in a storage unit at the moment.


Recording videos isn't possible at this time unfortunately, but I expect to be settled in next month and then resume all previously mentioned scheduled content.


Right let's get to today's overview looking at some of the key points from last weeks betting.


I'll start with a strategy that's been doing very well each week, but last week hit a bit of a flat spot with one of its betting options.


Exchange Straight bet type with Place Lay Multi has been setting new records, but this bet option had a dip over the previous Monday to Sunday.


None of the strategies did anything unexpected last week with this strategy and bet option just having a slight downturn, but in fact just finished slightly under the previous weeks numbers.


Whereas the Exchange / BSP Liability option for Place Lay Multi did well and made a profit overall on the week.


Each bet option will have its day with some for longer periods than others, but it's where we finish with them all that's the most important factor.


As much as Exchange / BSP Liability has been making a steady profit to date, it's been slightly over shadowed by the Exchange Straight option that's banked a lot more profit so far.


Last week I did see with a few of the strategies some bet options making a higher profit than the typical bet types known to usually perform better, such as Racing Lays Main which I'll get to later, but doing much better over just three days compared to the other six day a week options.


Place Back Multi Target Profit made a profit while the Straight betting option made a slight loss overall on the week,


It's interesting to watch each bet type over time as some of them rocket off the line, while others take longer to build notable profits.


What I'm witnessing with some of the strategies is the tortoise and the hare scenario when we look at the lesser yielding options, but with lower drawdown compared to the options that can return higher but do require more points allocation.


In next weeks news update I'll cover all the monthly figures and progress to date, but this point is worth mentioning now aside from the overall growth, as some of the strategies that presently show high numbers straight staking will be overtaken by target profit bet types that build at a slower rate. I guarantee this will happen as they are all set up for the long game.


The primary bet options are typically straight backing or laying, and they will continue to profit and in most cases be the absolute stand out compared to the more cautious approach.


They will also likely regain the lead if over taken by a more cautious bet type, but the steady consistent progress of target profit as an example compared to the straight staking approach is there to see right now.


Sure Favs Foundation straight betting as an example shot off the line with a flurry of winning results, while the Target Profit option placing the same bets has been gradually catching up with the BSP option, and with less than half of the drawdown in comparison.


Whereas the straight betting option has levelled out for a longer period of months compared to the target profit option, which has still been increasing its overall balance and moved on from its levelling period.


They will potentially cross paths unless Sure Favs FD straight betting does what it's capable of doing and hit another long win run. Pushing the bank up high mark that will take longer for target profit to potentially reach.


If not, the target profit option as it stands is showing with its continual growth it could over take both straight staking options for overall profits banked, BSP and MTP, while also maintaining low double digit drawdown figures.


It's the safer route to follow with Sure Favs Foundation running target profit compared to straight, and for anyone looking to invest in a low risk betting strategy this is proving itself to be very appealing from the bet history to date.


Slowly and steadily pushing the balance higher over the months and years to come with minimal notable downturn.


If you want the BSP option then straight staking is definitely the only way to go as you cannot bet BSP using target profit, but if you're okay with MTP betting pre race and want that safe feeling with very gradual growth over time, then Target Profit Sure Favs Foundation is definitely worth considering.


The results for Sure Favs Foundation Target Profit from the 1/6/20 to 22/8/21.


MTP is the only column of results you're looking at above, as target profit bets solely MTP (minutes to post) and this is the blue line on the graph. If you're colour blind it's the one doing the best from the two.


It's definitely had its levelling period with no growth and what looked like a dip in form which you can see between January to May 2021, but if you draw a straight line from where the bottom left blue graph begins to where we are now at +92.54 points, it's definitely a steep impressive increase over the 14 month period.

Seeing this line of growth from start to end like this demonstrates what is possible with some calculated long term betting.


I don't know of any external to sports investment that returns such a high percentage growth with a drawdown at such a low level.



I do understand the profit is not phenomenal growth compared to some of the other services and bet types, such as Place Lay Multi that topped 300 points with a 1% Ratchet over the past few months alone, or how Bet Focus has performed historically.


Also in comparison to Sure Favs FD Straight Staking which has banked +169.41 points betting MTP over the same timeline, with a low drawdown at just 26.33 points.


When you look at BSP though this has returned +95.51 points with a higher drawdown of 34.40. Virtually the same as Target Profit but with more than twice as much drawdown.


All three betting scenarios are in a positive state though, straight staking BSP or Exchange, and Target Profit, the fact they all show a steady line of growth with a low drawdown is excellent and bodes well for the years to come.


I'm using Sure Favs Target Profit in this example today as I can see this catching the other two options over the coming twelve months, but over the years to come as we accumulate more historical data with these betting strategies the numbers will reveal so much more to enable us to capitalize on the data. That's definitely for another news blog though.


However you decide to set up your points bank and strategy with these bet options it's down to personal preference, and what you decide to run has to suit your style of betting enough to keep you engaged, and with a plan set in place that you will stick to in order to reach the longer term profit goals.


Another service that had target profit ahead of the standard straight staking approach last week is Place Back Multi, which I've noticed is becoming a popular option among members.


Weirdly enough place betting using target profit is the opposite of using it within the win market, as it's actually more risk than straight staking given your bet can be a lot higher than your stake to reach the target amount, but the numbers so far are showing this to be a very rewarding path to take.


Before I go on another long topic I better reel myself in and save this for another news post, as I've got a few more subjects to cover today and already written more than expected, so to quickly round up the remaining services from the weeks betting.


I'm delighted to see Racing Lays Main having an absolutely storming week.


With the straight staking option the strategy returned +24.50 points profit, and a 100% strike rate over 25 bets.


Racing Lays Main - Straight Fixed Stake MTP - 23rd to 29th August


Place Lay Single continued to profit since its trend analysis update a few weeks ago, and is notably placing fewer bets, but they are more considered and we're seeing a lot more win days with the balance now regularly heading the right way.


It's a strategy that compliments the other two place bet options now, and any other none place market service.


This strategy I'd now put in the cautious betting bracket for both straight and liability options like target profit for win market backing, because since the trend update the drawdown is around 4 points for both bet types available, which is considerably lower than pre update over an identical timeframe.


I think it would be a good idea to offer different packages to members under the same subscription plans, ie safer portfolio management with slower growth, compared to more ambitious plans that come with the caveat of longer losing periods and higher drawdown, but on the flip side can return huge numbers.


This is an idea a friend put to me recently that I'll include as soon as possible when I'm in the new office.


To wrap up today's summary I should also mention Bet Focus which made a profit last week with the target profit option and that looks like a very safe way to follow that strategy, which aligns with my points above on this subject.


Especially considering the nature of the betting as it looks for the high odds winners. Unfortunately if betting straight with the Bet Focus last week it made a loss overall.


Racing Lays as mentioned also made a loss for the High and +5 Stop options last week, but for both strategies mentioned it's an unavoidable aspect of betting and has to be factored in to the process. I'll refrain from the usual setting up a balance correctly lecture.


Lay Dutching and Bet Advantage which are both strategies under the microscope with the trend analysis built in to my Researcher software both fell short last week, and dipped the balance.


They will both reach their true potential, but for now they are both bottom of the leader board and showing some minus numbers.


All the results and stats for each service including last weeks numbers are up to date up to the 29th August and available to view.


Upcoming Site Improvements


I'm working on the layout of each strategy page, and simplifying the way things are explained, while also minimizing the amount of text.


I'll be recording a lot of short video explanations within the Video FAQ available as soon as my office is re assembled.


The videos will walk through every question I get asked while clearly explaining the process of what the services are and how you get started, manage a bet bank, and much more besides.


This means I need to tidy the site throughout before recording new walkthrough content.


Today I removed the liability results for Lay Dutch and target profit for Bet Advantage to both remove unnecessary content, and as explained above certain bet options work better with different strategies.


The target profit option for Bet Advantage was a project to test the benefit, and from my calculations it's not viable. The liability option for Lay Dutch has proved itself as not viable over the past 14 months, and given these two strategies are both undergoing deeper trend updates at this time keeping it simple is the key to success.


If anybody at any time wants to be updated on the results for the removed bet types with these strategies, please let me know and I will get you the data as I am still recording the results and can share this upon request.


The entire site needs a clean up and a lot more hand holding to make everything as easy to understand and use as possible.


Operating the services once set up is very easy as most will know already, but getting there could be easier, and then knowing your options which are sometimes missed once up and running needs to be at the forefront and available.


Any changes I make to the site like removing unnecessary results from service options I will always share, and if I get feedback that I've removed something of value I will of course reinstate it.


These are however the only results that will be removed for the reasons explained, and with so many positives to look at with the other four services, having less to consider with Bet Advantage and Lay Dutch to bring them up to par just seems obvious.


Anything I add, change, or move while housekeeping I will let you know. I cannot wait to get the new content included, and know it doesn't sound interesting but I promise there will be something in there to help everyone.


Ratchet Reset Instructions


In last weeks news blog post I mentioned the Ratchet stake option for Place Betting will be reset at the end of the month. Meaning we reset back to 1 point per bet and remove the Ratchet calculation with a new start from the 1st September.


Any profit is then withdrawn, and for Place Back Multi and Place Lay Multi there is a money to withdraw. Any losses are accounted for and the Ratchet also reset to avoid miscalculation.


How do you do this you may possibly be asking, well it's ridiculously simple.


You keep your start bank and percentage stake exactly the same, and then click the Clear Bets button after the final bets have been placed tomorrow evening ahead of the racing on Wednesday 1st September.


This removes the Ratchet calculation that's been increasing your staking every day the balance increases, and prevents it from continuing with that increased stake with your new fresh percentage stake amount based on your start bank amount.


That's it.


You can withdraw your profits if you wish or keep them in Betfair, but I'd advise with Place Betting to withdraw quarterly.


This is more so with Place Lay Multi and Place Back Multi, but I will be doing this for all three options including Place Lay Single.


I'd especially like a clean slate with the latter given it's recent upturn in performance, so this should see the next quarter really benefit from the fact it's winning most days now, as the Ratchet will adjust stake more frequently.


In the screenshot below you can find Clear Bets located in your Bets Placed section within the bot, I've drawn a red box around it to highlight where you need to go.


When you click it you will be prompted to confirm, and then once this is done any number accumulated next to the Ratchet will disappear as shown, and your staking will return to the base percentage based against your start bank, from then on increasing in line with your profit growth each day.



This is your heads up as promised ahead of the new month commencing and resetting the Ratchet.


If you've any questions or need anymore assistance with this please let me know.


You don't have to do this if you don't want, but I strongly advise you do.


The other Ratchet bets for none place market strategies are left to continue for the year at this point, but I may consider a six month profit withdrawal and reset. If so I'll keep you informed.


In Play Bet Club


This will be the quickest of all quick updates on this subject.


The In Play Bet Club is 100% going to commence as soon as I am set up and happy in my new office. My ETA for this is now looking likely to be October.


If you're interested in having me place fully automated in play bets to your Betfair account send me an email to ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk with In Play Cloud Bet Bot in the subject line, and you will receive an invite once this becomes available.


It is first come first serve as places will be limited, but if you're names not down you're not coming in, so make sure you're on the list if this sparks your interest.


I cannot wait to get back into my in play betting routine I've missed it a lot.


Okay that's it from me today.


The monthly figure will be added to the site on Wednesday, possibly Thursday daytime latest, which I'll send a quick email to inform you once added.


Then on Monday next week I'll do a full stats and data round up of the month in the news post.


Thanks for reading today if you made it this far.


Best Regards

Ryan


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