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Expo News 22nd November

In today's news post:

  • In Play Betting Club result update and news.

  • The Automated Betting Strategy weekly round up, with side by side examples.

In Play Bet Club


The reservations for the first 50 places went within 12 hours of the invitations being sent last week.


Anyone who missed the chance to confirm a space will be notified when any become available. Rest assure if you're on the waiting list you will be informed.


If you would like to reserve a place on the waiting list you can do so via the in play page here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/in-play-bet-club


I'll keep the results updated there and also here in the blog each week (apart from next), and from when we go live in January.


I've added the bets from last week to the spreadsheet below, and also included the Race Class as I expect this will be a factor in my long term decision process.


In Play Betting Results - 26th October to 20th November

Average Odds: 8

Commission Deduction: 2%

Fixed Liability Bet: £100


in play betting system


I have been asked a lot about what kind of points balance to set up for in play betting.


This is something I will also cover in detail before we go live in January for members.


The advice I've given so far is as long as you are operating within comfortable betting limits, and you have enough money in the account to cover the bets, you're good to go.


Having a sensible approach to managing your money and a points balance has the advantage of peace of mind, and I'd suggest anything between 12 to 50 points will be plenty for the in play club. Just make sure you have the money to cover the bets daily is the bare minimum requirement.


It's very different to the automated strategies that are set up as long term investments, and the money you put in has to weather potential months of losing spells to reach the profitable periods which push the balance ahead.

The in play service is instead aiming to get you to target profit as soon as possible within whatever tier level you've decided to bet, and then it stops betting.


We look at it as something which will make us a profit over the years ahead obviously, but the money management side of things does not need to be planned in the same way. As the target will be reached for each tier a lot sooner, and we just need to be operating with money we can comfortably afford on each bet.


That mindset is the same for both automated and in play services, because if you're not using money that you can afford to bet with this may affect your decisions negatively, instead of going in to the investment with a relaxed confident approach.


Whereby you will not throw the toys out the pram and panic after a few losses, but instead be using money you'd budgeted to use for the service.


I do sound like a broken record with all the money mindset repetition in my news updates and on the service pages, but it's important.


You need good money management to ensure you have enough in the bank to bet with each day, as your target could be reached in weeks or a few months, we're not aiming for annual and even further reaching returns to hit target like with the automated services.


Having insufficient funds for example on a positive winning day or week would really piss you off if you missed bets due to this, so get your house in order and make sure you do have the money available according to your staking.


The betting is fixed liability only which makes it easier to allocate the correct amount of points required.


Your points balance can be a lot less and just enough as stated to work within monetary levels you're happy with, just enough to get your bets matched.


Just to remind you I won't be updating results next week as usual on Monday the 29th, it will be the 6th December instead when the services are next updated including the automated strategies.


This is due to my hospital visit later this week on the 26th November and time required to recover away from work.


Also, it's doubtful I will be placing any bets anyway over this period so it may be mid December before I resume in play betting.


However, I do weirdly find it relaxing and enjoyable, so you never know I could be back on next week.


Automated Betting Strategy Update


The results are updated for all services and available to view via the Betting Strategy tab on the main menu.


Simply select the strategy you wish to examine from the drop down and you will find the detailed results there with last weeks betting activity included.


First let's look at a brief round up what finished up, down, or evens over the week.


Lay Dutching continued to push the balance the right way for the third week in a row along with Racing Lays all options.


Sure Favs Main also made a slight profit at MTP but a lot better with BSP selected.


Place Back Multi Straight and Target Profit both pushed back and banked some points, along with Place Lay Single Liability betting for BSP and MTP.


The services that finished around evens on the week were Bet Advantage and Sure Favs High, which had an unfortunate Sunday to wipe the profit from the week.


Bet Focus Target Profit, and Place Lay Single Exchange Straight also ended the week about where they started the previous week.


We finished down on the week with Sure Favs Foundation Straight which had a slight dip, as did the Target Profit option.


Bet Focus Straight also dropped some points but only single digits. With Place Lay Multi also making a loss both Straight and Liability options, however a notable slow down on the dip in form shown over the past couple of months.


The form looks to have reached the bottom of the curve or thereabouts, and this is typically followed by some decent winning form for Place Lay Multi.


The signs are there to see that we are turning a corner with Place Lay Multi, and it's been a valuable lesson for me operating the strategy over the winter months.


When we look at what the service has banked so far its easy for me to forgive an inevitable losing period, and even better when I've learned something I can apply to avoid this time next year.


Overall the points balance is impressive factoring in the recent losses, while working within its recommended points balance. This of course depends on when you started as that dictates where you are on your own timeline, which is understood.


However, the profit growth shown to date in such a short period of time for both the flat staking, liability, or ratchet options with Place Lay Multi to me are up there with the best betting investments available anywhere.


Any dip in form is not a sign the wheels have fallen off the wagon, as this is a fully automated betting strategy operating through uncharted months, that is expected at some point on the timelines.


This is why I've budgeted for the worst to achieve the best.


It's about investing into a strategy for the years and seeing a decent ROI, but being prepared for the dips along the way.


The automated services are nothing like a tipster service, or if you're manually placing bets yourself.


Typically a tipster will go off hunches or some form following specific horses, but the automated services here are programmed emotionless templates set over each applicable race day looking to yield long term profits.


There will be highs and lows along the way, which is why we put in an amount we can afford to invest to cover this.


With the in play service this is not a service that requires a lot of long term planning, just some sensible money management to make sure the bets are matched with money in the Betfair account.


However, this is also not a tipping service as I am placing the bets remotely based on one strategy alone that is triggered by the Bet Mover software metrics.


I'm not studying form thinking what might be the days best bet for example, I'm making my decisions based on the numbers within a small window of opportunity during a race.


Very different to a tipping service for both the fully automated strategies and the in play service starting in January.


Think of the automated services like investing in bitcoin or stocks and shares, where you put in money you can afford to invest.


With that type of investing the only time you lose is when you cash out during a downturn, or your money reaches a low level that depletes your investment with some exchanges and particular trade types, but in every instance this is money you will have planned to go in with that doesn't affect your day to day life.


It's not money you want to lose obviously, but it's a balance you have set aside and can let it run based on your chosen investment without emotions affecting your decision making. It should be as emotionless as the strategy selections themselves.


This has to be the mindset for the automated strategies if you're going to succeed with them over the years to come.


They will all return a good points balance that is a lot higher in most cases than any other investment type if you set up and approach them this way.


Additionally, with the availability of BSP your stake levels and total amount of profit yielded over the years can be at a very high level.


Safe in the knowledge you're not dealing with a broker or trading site that can move the goal posts, scam you, or make it difficult to withdraw your money.


You deal with Betfair direct and only authorise our software to place the bets on your behalf, but you control your staking and when you can stop or start the software.


Betfair only allow us to place the bets for you because Nigel Dove is a licensed Betfair developer.


It is possibly the simplest and safest investment you could make in fact, and as it's Betfair Exchange based you're never going to be banned for winning too much.


The only reason Betfair will ban you for using the exchange is for any nefarious behaviour, or if you're hacked. All of which are external to the strategies, and in fact in place to protect your account.


If you're a current member of Exponential Bet or anyone thinking of joining, ask yourself if you can bet within your comfort levels, manage a balance that can afford to match the stakes at the levels you set within the software, and if you're capable of leaving your investment in the strategy to run its course without stopping and starting.


These are essential for success using the automated services and for the in play club.


I can guarantee over the coming twelve months for example the Place Lay Multi strategy that is presently on the push back after a dip will return three digit profits by this time next year, but it will also have some losing months in the mix along the way.


It's the losing months that affect people not set up as I explain above who will abandon ship and then miss the profitable periods.


Hence why I labour the point on the importance of mindset and sensible money management being the key to success with these strategies.

Okay that's my rant over for this news post, and for approximately a couple of weeks as we won't have a blog again until the 6th December when the next result update is posted.


If you missed this above from the in play section of today's news update, it's because I'm in hospital later this week. I'm only repeating this again to make sure its understood (not for sympathy although if you want to give it I'm taking it ;-) as I won't be updating results until then.


I know from past experience people will email me asking why results haven't been updated for a couple of weeks, and if I've gone out of business.


It's nice people care, but if I've already posted it here, and I will add it to each strategy page as well before I go in on Friday, I don't really want to have to repeat it. Without wanting to sound like a grumpy bast.


To wrap up today's post let's look at a few side by side comparison screenshots for the strategies that received the filter update a few weeks ago. Not all of them as it would take too long, but enough to demonstrate the impact of the update.


This will show the before and after of what would have happened pre update, to what has happened after the update.


The update came from the Researcher AI analysis built in to the software itself, and from the accumulated data since the 1st June 2020.


Whereby it was identified certain filters albeit profitable in short bursts where detrimental to the overall longer term profit growth.


This is exactly why we collect and assess this data, because it is common sense the more data and live betting we have over the years the better the services will become at building profits.


The examples below will give you a short term insight in to the immediate effect of the update.


Racing Lays Main 1/11/21 to 21/11/21

Before - What would have happened without the update.


After - What happened because of the update, actual live betting published results.


Sure Favs High 1/11/21 to 21/11/21

Before


After


Lay Dutching Main 1/11/21 to 21/11/21

Before


After


It's pretty obvious the impact the update has had on every aspect of these three services, and I could post more for each option telling the same story.

I want to look at this again in six months, and demonstrate how the simplest adjustment to unnecessary filters has helped us bank a considerable amount more profit.


Place Lay Multi was only updated approximately a couple of weeks ago, and I'd like to show more comparison data for this. I'll look at it either in December or later in January and show the side by side results then.


That's it from me today and until the 6th December (yes I am repeating myself to try and avoid the where are the result updates and news blog emails), when I'll post in the blog again and update the website results for all services.


I won't be in play betting much or at all over the coming couple of week, as I will need the time to let me heart recover, and under orders of the consultant required to take it easy.


I'm not exactly doing physical work with the website I know, but you would be surprised how much it can take it out of you. When you feel as weak as a kitten as I did with the previous Ablation for a couple of weeks after, everything just takes ten times longer and I'm expecting much of the same.


Thanks for reading today, I'll back again soon when hopefully I haven't got a broken heart.


Ryan


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