With the world in chaos due to the Coronavirus it's difficult to guess what's going to happen next, but as much as there is a lot I do not know, the one thing I know for sure is nothing good ever came from panicking.
The photo is meant as a bit of light comedy relief btw, as I know it's a serious time, but if I don't laugh I will go nuts.
I'm actually writing this post today in self isolation as I've got a sore throat, cough and feeling quite rough with a slight temperature, it could be a straight forward cold, but I'm following the rules.
No drama here, I'm certain it's my dusty dogs causing my allergies to flare, but who actually knows as I can't get tested anywhere so I could have it.
Given my mother has COPD I'm staying well clear of family at the moment, and as my missus is a Police Officer on shifts over the weekend she could be bringing it back in with her, so I'm being careful who I interact with, and I'm sure you're in the same boat regardless of having any symptoms.
I've done a lot of research on Covid 19, from TedX talks, to niche podcasts, and main stream media, we've a lot consider, and most of it to take with a pinch of salt. There are a lot of conflicting opinions.
What I think is obvious is that this is going to be with us now for a long time, and it will affect all of us in some way or another.
Whether it's our own health, a family member, our work and daily routine's, and social lives are going to be turned upside down.
It's a crazy time to be alive that's a fact.
With the sporting world taking some drastic decisions yesterday with major events postponed, let's turn our attention to horse racing.
The BHA statement as of publishing this post basically states they are adhering to government advice, and it's business as usual.
However, the government in my opinion do not know what they are doing, and things are changing hourly, so I wouldn't bank on this remaining like this.
I can see some disruption coming and major changes to the way horse racing events are ran over the coming weeks, with behind closed doors racing taking place, and some cancelled meetings.
Given the extent of this pandemic cancelling horse racing completely may happen for a short period of time, and with things constantly changing quickly I cannot state for sure this will not happen, but I do think we may be least affected compared to other sports.
Given that most meetings that are not gigantic in scale such as Cheltenham are generally not exactly packed anyway, allowing for a sensible distance between people, and with limited controlled attendance I think most will take place after a possible period of adjustment.
As someone who runs a website that provides automated horse racing betting and trading systems, and is a partner in Hedger Pro, the online betting and trading platform that operates on the Betfair exchange solely for horse racing, I'm expecting some disruption to our schedule and business functions.
However, I do expect it to be minimal as in the grand scheme of things there is absolutely nothing we can do about Covid 19 at the moment, other than practice common sense with social distancing, and personal hygiene.
It's going affect us all and the racing world will of course be impacted, as jockeys, trainers, race course staff, and so on will become infected.
The actual spread of the virus at the track however in my opinion is nowhere near the scale of a football match, or other events like this where the public are packed in. As such I can see behind closed doors racing as stated, some cancellations obviously, but hopefully just a minor disruption nowhere near the level of what's been taken with football.
If the BHA do decide to cancel racing for a period of time, I do not think it will be off for too long before alternate arrangements are made to allow racing to continue.
As we're are not attending the track and running automated betting systems from the comfort of our home, or live trading on the exchange, as long as they are not off for too long and the races do run we will be fine.
If the worst does happen and we find ourselves looking at a prolonged gap in racing, then we will look at suspending memberships to cover this downtime.
That will be quite a lot of admin to sort out, but absolutely the correct decision should this occur.
It could happen, but I think given the nature of the business set up for horse racing this will not be the case, and if so not for too long. We shall see.
Business as usual in the meantime...
If you do find yourself having to take time off and work at home, then I have a trading service update available next week on the 22nd March, so you could fill in the time back to lay trading, providing we have racing of course.
You can read more about this new trade update here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/betfair-trading
The JV MK2 Betting System continues to show its robust foundation since the update, at £908.28 BSP profit if betting with £100 per bet during March.
Not all going according to plan with some losses along the way as you can see in the graph below.
That is the nature of betting after all, and for anyone running any kind of automated betting this is the reason you have a percentage staking plan operating at set points per bet.
You want to be set up and prepared to weather the inevitable dips, so you can hit the profit highs and grow the balance over time.
This graph showing betting activity during March is a good example of this.
The JV MK2 strike rate at 41.18% so far in March, and average odds of 3.29 for each bet, gives us a real chance of hitting the annual predicted growth at +200 points profit at this level of persistence.
You can find out more about JV MK2 here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/jv-system
I'll publish an update for Remote Daily Betting after the weekend, as bets are still running for RDB Straight today, and I want to post up to date information.
If the news changes with the racing and meetings are cancelled I'll assess the downtime, and if it does look prolonged I'll be in touch regarding a plan to suspend memberships to cover this period as mentioned above.
Given the way things are developing we'll play it by ear, and move with the times as things progress.
I hope you and your families are well.
Best Regards
Ryan