In today's news update:
The return of Ratchet Staking.
Hide your money.
Target Profit
New automated low drawdown bet strategy.
Racing Lays free trial extension.
The Return of Ratchet Staking
As the name implies this staking method has previously been available at Exponential Bet, and is now set to return giving members the option to set a points bank for each strategy, then set a percentage of this bank for each betting option.
The definition of Ratchet Staking is: If betting bank increases then your stake increase. Optionally you can use "ratchet staking" which means that stake can only increase when betting bank increases to new maximum value. Ratchet staking will keep the same value of stake if betting bank decreases.
The example below shows how this will be managed within Cloud Bet Bot, and in this instance uses Bet Advantage, but the same option will apply across all automated betting strategies making this stake feature available to all members.
I have set 1% of a bank of 90 per bet for the High setting. I could have set 0.5 for Med, and 0.25 for Low if I'd decided that was my strategy, 1 across all three, or 1, 2, 3, whatever suits my banking for each strategy option can now be set with the allocated start bank if using Ratchet.
For each option you use when Ratchet is selected you're betting a percentage of your Start Bank per bet.
In the example above you can see the bot is set to active, but below this you will see the slider to select normal staking or Ratchet.
Normal staking is self explanatory of course, just put in what monetary value you want to bet per option, ie Low, Med, and High in this example, and it will bet this amount each qualifying bet these option/s.
When you select Ratchet however enter a Start Bank which you can see I have set to 90, and the bets are a percentage of that start bank.
Whenever the Start Bank increases, so do the percentage stakes accordingly as explained above in the definition of Ratchet Staking.
This is incredibly useful as it means you can divide your total stake of whatever is in Betfair into individual balances per strategy, and split these across each option.
Which will then operate according to the definition of Ratchet Staking outlined above.
This feature has been requested a lot from members wanting to follow services using increased stake as the balance grows.
I know this can be done manually each day, but I came to the conclusion it goes against the grain of what an automated service should offer and requested Nigel to re include it.
You will be able to use this option from Monday the 16th November when the next Cloud Bet Bot update is being installed after Sunday's racing.
I will need to go over each strategy, the bet type, and service option with the Ratchet stake applied, and run calculations on the balance growth from the 1.6.20 when all results are published from.
Include these in my weekly result updates to show the progress of this betting method.
Which will then you clear information on what strategies you wish to operate with the Ratchet option.
You can have one service running using Normal for example, and another with Ratchet, this is fully in your control.
However, you cannot select different options within each strategy so you have one running Normal and the other with Ratchet, it's one or the other.
Here's an example of the result differences with and without Ratchet selected for one of the service options.
Sure Favs Foundation 1.6.20 to 1.11.20
1% Ratchet Selected
Normal Staking
+98.79 more points made using Ratchet over this period of time compared to normal, but with more than twice the drawdown.
Less bets overall with Ratchet selected due to the 5 point stop deployed with this strategy, and this has been hit more with Ratchet selected, but Ratchet shows a slightly higher strike rate at 37.73% compared to 35.38, and a significantly higher ROI at 30.64 in comparison to 11.47.
The overall line of growth looks a lot smoother with Ratchet selected over the winning and losing periods.
It's optimised the win days at higher stakes and on the losing days just stopped early due to the stop at 5 points setting, which has kept the balance moving upward over the period where the normal staking has been stagnating around the same level.
Without going over each strategy applying Ratchet right now, I'll work over them all individually both backing and laying using this stake method, also with fixed stake and fixed liability, and then after Monday's weekly result update I'll include them on site next week for you to examine.
Everyone will then have a much better idea of what services to use Ratchet when it's introduced on the 16th Nov, and what not to, as I'm certain this type of betting will work great for some and not others.
Hide Your Money
This is as it sounds and doesn't need much explanation.
Given we provide our betting services available across all devices, tablet, PC, Mac, Mobile IOS and Android, this means we have members accessing their accounts from a variety of locations.
Either in work when you don't want everyone knowing your business, or with the better half looking over your shoulder trying to peek, on public transport, wherever, so for this reason you may not want people seeing how much money you have in your Betfair account.
With the upcoming update to Cloud Bet Bot available on the 16th Nov there will be the option to hide your money.
Within your Cloud Bet Bot account you will soon have the option to click on the eye next to your balance, and this will then magically hide your money from prying eyes. Click it again your balance will re appear.
Target Profit
Not only will members be able to bet using the Ratchet option, but you may have noticed an option from the screenshot above showing Target Profit in the drop down.
As you can see this is an Exchange betting option only, and it can be applied to any of the strategies.
The way it works is that it will bet on the selections for you guessed it, a target profit, adjusting your stake accordingly.
Whether you select Normal or Ratchet, it will always be looking for the target profit amount according to your bot settings.
as an example if it's backing one horse it will do so looking for your profit on that single bet, if it's multiple horses selected then across all selections it will place the bet and try and return your target profit.
This is exchange betting back at minutes to post, so the caveat is there will be some slight differences with the results for everyone given it's not BSP, and depends on the available money in the market at the moment these bets are sent to Betfair.
However, for diplomacy I will always report results for Target Profit according to BSP and not my own personal results given the variance between members. You will then be there or thereabouts.
With Target Profit though it will give us the ability to have bets placed with a low liability with some of the strategies, that return close to the target amount on each win.
With laying you have fixed liability, but for backing we've not had a similar option until now. Target Profit will be useful backing horses over evens as your stake will be less than what you're looking to return on the winning bets.
You could absorb a losing run for example with no more than a point or two drawdown, and in one bet have the balance restored using this betting option.
The balance growth will take longer, but you could always apply Ratchet as explained above, as for robust backing strategies a Ratchet staking plan is a lot safer.
We will make this available for you when we introduce Ratchet staking in the next Cloud Bet Bot update, and I will provide more information within the updated Getting Started PDF.
My summary on betting using this method is that the returns will be lower than betting a point per bet obviously, but the overall bet exposure and risk dramatically reduced which is very appealing to me.
With any system that shows good form and steady growth over time, this is the sort of staking plan that is particularly useful for either building a small bank cautiously, or for larger investments given the minimal risk, and as stated would work well with Ratchet as you wouldn't be seeing dramatic swings, it would be gradual incremental increases, or minimal losses in line with the current balance.
I'll demonstrate what I mean below with the new addition to the automated strategies, and include a Ratchet example.
New Automated Low Drawdown Bet Strategy
I mentioned months ago I'd be adding another automated betting strategy for One Subscription members, and also available for direct subscription as a stand alone service.
The Researcher tool used for examining race data which generates the bets for Cloud Bet Bot gives me freedom to examine race data in a unique way, so I can target specific ranges within each race to uncover new strategies.
We accumulate and store our own results within Researcher according to specific programmed requirements, which means I can delve deep then live bet test with confidence.
The next service to be included is built upon the Target Profit stake option explained above, but this can also be ran using straight bets or BSP like the other automated strategies.
This means if you want low drawdown and a much safer route that option will be available with the Target Profit selected.
If you're comfortable with a higher drawdown you can bet to the exchange or using BSP with one point per bet, ie if there are five horses included in a race that's five point staked.
Whereas the Target Profit option you would be staking to achieve that amount across the five horses, for example a one point return across five horses, instead of five points with one on each.
It's a bit like back Dutching, but much better as your stake is not flat and instead as the name suggests your staking is set to a target a profit amount you set within Cloud Bet Bot.
As this is a backing system and working within a range of horses that should all be above evens and more, you will find in virtually every bet the staked amount will be a lot lower than the returned profit on the win if Target Profit is selected.
Here's an example of what I mean from Researcher's results.
In the above screenshot you can see I've opened a couple of races to give you an example, and comparison with the second screenshot below of the same races the staking is based on looking for close to one point profit on each win, instead of one point on each horse as you will see.
Above you can see the Target Profit staking in operation aiming for one point per race profit.
Don't get distracted by the code next to the date and time, but you can see the races that were selected have an OK next to them meaning they qualify operating the strategy I'm using.
You will also see a plus or minus depending if they won or lost, and of course the points running total on the right dating from the 1.6.20.
The losing race on the 1st July at 15:40 shows five horses covered in the bet to try and achieve one point, but none won and incurred a loss of -0.52, less than a point.
The winning race I've expanded at 18:45 backed three horses to try and achieve a point profit, and returned 0.79, just under a point, but these are BSP results and the strategy is basing the one point target at time of bet, so there will as explained above with Target Profit betting be this caveat of some odds movement.
As you bets will be going on using Exchange you will in most instances be closer to the target profit on the win compared to my published results at BSP. However, as I cannot physically represent everyone's individual outcomes given this is exchange only betting, I'll publish BSP.
The huge positive of this strategy is that given most of the time we return a point or somewhere close, and when we lose we return typically less than 50% of our Target Profit, this gives us some edge if operating at a good enough strike rate.
During my testing I'm running at approximately 38% strike rate, and winning more days than losing, so you can see the potential considering we return more profit on the winners than we lose on the losses.
I wanted a service I can put a very large amount of money into with minimum risk, and I mean single digit drawdown, but still an appealing potential annual balance growth, which I'd expect circa +60 points betting this way over a twelve month period if selecting Normal.
Here is an example of what I'm working on with this strategy from the 1.6.20 to 1.11.20.
Normal Staking With Target Profit
That is good enough for me, but if applying the Ratchet as shown below it's a bit better overall with no drama. We could in fact use a higher percentage Ratchet with this strategy.
1% Ratchet Selected
The goal when creating this strategy from the offset was to have a very selective automated betting system, but still getting involved in approximately 40 top 50 races with over a 100 bets a month.
As explained given the way the staking works I want to have more win days than losing days, and returning a one point target profit per bet while staking less than a point in each race. You can however increase your target profit and manage your staking however you decide.
The name for this new automated betting strategy is Bet Focus.
Which for me sums up the concept of what it's trying to achieve utilizing the new Target Profit setting.
A targeted staking strategy focused on backing horses for a specific amount, while protecting the balance with cautious selections and reduced exposure.
I'm definitely no genius at naming strategies but that works for me, and explains in the simplest terms what I'm aiming for with Bet Focus.
Like a parent with a few children that shouldn't really have a favourite, I can in all honesty see Bet Focus being my favourite child and taking the lions share of my overall bet investment.
As mentioned you will have the option to operate this placing straight bets to the exchange, or with BSP selected. This includes both normal staking or with the slider set to Ratchet.
Here is an example of the same races shown above using straight staking with results recorded to BSP.
You don't benefit from the protection Target Profit betting gives you on the losses, as you can see the 15:40 on the 1st July shows five horses backed that lost five points.
Whereas in the Target Profit example we lost half a point, and would have gained a point on the win.
However, you will make more on the winning bets as shown in the 18:45 race backing three horses that returned 5.1 points, but the drawdown over a year will definitely be double digits somewhere upward of 50 points.
Which means if this is your chosen path, yes you should make a couple of hundred points over twelve months, but you do need to set up a big enough points balance to accommodate this.
I cover setting up points balances and managing staking in the new FAQ I'll have published on Monday.
I will have a special promotion available for a limited time on yearly sign ups at half price for Bet Focus.
Bet Focus will of course be included as standard for all One Subscription members, and as a direct subscription service on the monthly, quarterly, six monthly, and yearly options.
More info to follow next week for Bet Focus.
Racing Lays Free Trial Extension
Racing Lays is one of the automated strategies that lays bets daily for either a fixed stake or fixed liability.
You can find out more about Racing Lays here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/racing-lays
I set up a free trial period in September for all actively subscribed non One Subscription members (as it's included anyway with that plan) until the end of October.
Anyone included in the trial may have already noticed it hasn't stopped yet.
This is because I've decided to extend this until the start of January 2021, stopping after the final race on the 3rd January.
Please put this date in your diary if you are on the free trial at the moment and looking to subscribe after the trial period.
If you are an active subscribed member that has possibly recently joined and not on the One Plan, but would like to be included in this extended free trial period until January 2021, just drop me an email and let me know.
Ideally we will see out the year in style with this busy lay betting service that places bets six days a week for the high setting, has a +5 point stop feature, and a more targeted option operating over three days.
I'll leave it here for today, but will post another blog on Monday evening 9th November covering:
Introducing the new FAQ.
One Subscription.
Running total blog post.
Trading at Exponential Bet.
General news.
A bit of a rant.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan
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