Bet & Trade News 24th September

In this news post I go into more detail covering Racing Lays and Lay Dutching two fully automated betting services at Exponential Bet, with a breakdown and examples of what you should expect when deciding to run these betting systems.


Racing Lays


This is a lay betting strategy that places one bet per qualifying race, and covers the majority of the race card each betting day.


Lay betting in case you've never heard of it is backing a horse to lose a race, which can be done using Betfair exchange, and comes with a variety of options which I'll go some way to cover in this news post.


Racing Lays picks a single horse in each qualifying race automatically, and then places the lay bet before the race is due to commence, not in running.


This lay betting strategy has the potential to return between 400 to 500 points profit per annum operating Fixed Stake, and between 70 to 100 points running fixed liability.


You can find out more on Racing Lays, staking options, and view the updated results so far here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/racing-lays


We have two modes of operation with this lay betting system, Main and High.


The only difference between these two options is Main places bets on Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday only.


The High option places bets Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday.


Other than this they both work exactly the same, and according to the 'System Overview' rules below:

  • Lay betting not the favourite at time of selection.

  • Races with 2 to 50 runners.

  • Odds range limitations 1 to 20.

  • Broad bet type.

  • Race class limitations.

  • Selects 1 bet per race.

  • No stop loss or stop at a profit.

  • Bet selection time 480 minutes to post.

  • Bet placed 2 minutes to post.

Week commencing 28th September we will have a new addition to the system overview.


This addresses the difference between time of selection at 480 MTP (minutes to post) up to the time of bet selection.


The bet placement time will be moved to 1 MTP instead of 2 MTP, which will not change the selection obviously, as that is made at 480 MTP, but gives us more chance of getting a price closer to BSP if laying using Exchange odds.


I'll come to how to bet shortly, but the main point of this new addition to the system rules is to restrict the max odds with an anti drift filter.


As this is required in order to avoid the higher odds selections, especially as this is lay betting and the odds dictate either the liability or the potential profit.


We've learned quickly after releasing this service collapsing a market can easily occur, and this can cause a drift in price with a horse to push it over max odds. I was genuinely surprised as we're hunting in the top end of the table with this bet, but knew some slight adjustment would need to be made here.


Additionally, from time of selection at 480 MTP up to 1 MTP, a small selection of these horses at single digit odds can jump off come race time over odds of 20.


Which if we had a crystal ball on which ones would do this we'd all be quid's in for a trade, but it's quite a random occurrence and I digress.


The anti drift filter will cap this from negatively affecting us when lay betting with Racing Lays.


The same selections can be made at 480 MTP without disrupting the strategy, as I do not want to change a thing with this system, but avoiding the higher odds horses that are not worth the risk makes a lot of sense.


In fact the effect of removing these higher odds bets could add a further 20% profit to the strategy overall with no downside.


The strike rate including the anti drift filter is still high at 82.64% from the 1.6.20 to 24.9.20 (at time of writing this section of the blog 16:15), which is plenty given the average odds come down to 5.56 with a max bet placement time odds of 10, instead of leaving them to whatever price given at the moment they are based selection time.


This approach also gives a slight improvement on the current strike rate, but the effect of this definitely lowers the drawdown by around 6 points at where we are today while adding more overall profit growth.


A few things to reiterate here, this is not a system change as everything remains the same with the selections, this is a crucial filter given the time difference between selection and betting period, but also taking into account the much higher bet volume due to the members live betting.


Results up to the introduction of this new filter will be exactly as they should be, 100% accurate according to live member betting, nothing changed here or back fitted. All results are what they are for members live betting up to now, and after the filter upgrade.


Then after they will have the improved selection filter added placing bets with the anti drift setting. This update as well will not require any downtime, as it will be fully tested in development version before hand.


In fact the anti drift feature has been tested already, it's just the result history cross over still being worked on.


It's vital we show the results accurately and any changes added do not alter the live betting results that have gone before.


This is the case right up to this point, with historical results available on each service page.


Now things are a lot more sophisticated with these services, and results are shown directly from Researcher which is responsible for instructing Cloud Bet Bot how to place bets throughout the day (techie overload sorry).


Nigel is having to build a new setting that keeps what's gone before, but allows for trend based changes going forward.

These are all trend based strategies, which if you know anything about racing strategies is the best way to set up your systems.


Jockeys, trainers, tracks, rules, Covid impacts, changes in the seasons etc, they all need monitoring and do affect the racing.


These trends can be updated without disrupting the services the way we've set up Exponential Bet, and everything stays exactly the same with the template for each system.


The results as opposed to being on spreadsheet that cannot record such trend based information very well, can now be stored within Researcher so we've a timestamp in a way for every trend update that's kept us in the game over the years.


This gives us a unique way to look back to assess how we've moved with the times as racing has progressed.


These are not strategy changes, but reactions to how things change naturally over time, and time stands still for no man.


However, as much as possible the trend settings will remain in place unchanged for large portions of each year.


Any updates will now be logged properly at that time, with all historical results included in one, ie showing all past and current stats, graph etc, with any future adjustments required seamlessly added to this.


Not an easy job for Nigel and I received an email earlier cursing my bones, but he's on the case with an ETA mid next week.


Getting back to Racing Lays though, this strategy and the selection process definitely produces the most bets which adds a certain excitement to the days betting.


Obviously more bets with the High setting across more days, but over both options it still operates at a very high strike rate.


The anti drift filter explained above will reduce exposure on the higher odds bets for fixed stake bettors, and increase profits overall for both fixed liability and fixed stake.

With all lay betting strategies at Exponential Bet you will have fixed stake, fixed liability exchange, and fixed liability BSP available via a drop down as shown below.



This is the main strategy page from login members see at Racing Lays, and as you can see setting up the bot is very easy.


You set your stakes for each option, choose an order type, click to active then save.


You can set your stake for either or both Main and High, and then select whatever style suits your betting.

To find out more on fixed stake and fixed liability betting please read my recent news blog which has a long section with examples here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/bet-trade-news-22nd-september


I have also added this information to each lay betting service page covering the two primary staking options.


Here are the results so far with fixed liability BSP Racing Lays Main option selected that bets three days a week, from the 1.6.20 to 24.9.20 at 8.27pm.




You can see a steady profit growth up to +37.20 points, 83.04% strike rate, and 7.56 points drawdown.


June started off badly as shown in the graph, some periods of ups and down along the way, but enough winners over the period to sustain the consistent upward trend with minimum stress given the low drawdown.


Here are the results so far with fixed stake Racing Lays Main option selected that operates three days a week, from the 1.6.20 to 24.9.20 at 8.27pm.





A different story with the points profit at +195.09, the same strike rate of course at 83.04%, with a drawdown of 30.96 points.


The downturn in June, but given the way the balance can increase with fixed stake is stronger a more confident swell on the graph is visible.


This is the method to select if you're looking for faster growth, and you have the investment set up correctly to handle the drawdown periods.


Deciding on the right staking method for you is very important, so please give this a lot of thought, read the stats, the blog posts, and information on site before getting started, and I'd rather you ask me any questions at this point rather than further down the line if you've been chopping and changing stakes based on results.

As that is quite literally the worst thing anybody can do tinkering with stakes based on a service performance, which I sometimes reach the point of total despair dealing with. You may as well do yourself a favour and not even bet if that's your inclination. Written with the utmost respect to everybody, and with the best intentions.


The stats with results history graphs etc are all there to help you decide what betting style suit you. Put in your money, choose your option, and stick at it is my best advice.


To summarise Racing Lays, if you're looking for an automated lay betting system that has a lot of daily action, with the two variations of betting days, operating a high strike rate and an appealing annual predicted growth for both fixed staking styles, this could be the lay betting system you've been looking for.


Lay Dutching


All the strategies covered today are fully automated and run using one login with Cloud Bet Bot online.


Lay Dutching is a lay betting service of course as the name suggests. This betting system lays horses depending on settings selected within the bot, which you have two choices exactly like Racing Lays, Main and High.


The Main option will lay up to three horses in a race, whereas High setting can lay up to five horses per race.


I would predict circa 300 to 400 points profit per annum using Fixed Stake Lay Dutching, and 30 to 50 points using fixed liability settings. Which may not sound a lot, but that of course depends on the amount you put in, and the level of risk you're comfortable with.


To find out more about Lay Dutching, view results to date and the system settings here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/lay-dutching


These are the shared 'System Overview' bullet points for Lay Dutching.


  • Lay betting from 4th favourite at time of selection.

  • Races with 2 to 50 runners.

  • Odds range 1 to 20.

  • Low range bet type.

  • No stop at a profit.

  • Stop loss set at 3 points per day.

  • Bet selection time 2 minutes to post.

  • Has race class setting limitations.

  • Operates Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, & Saturday. 


This strategy will take a little bit more explaining as a lot of people still have no clue what Dutching is let alone Lay Dutching, which I honestly do not know of anyone else running a betting system like this one.


Lay betting as explained above is backing a horse to lose a race, but you can back more than one to lose within each applicable race.


A picture can speak a thousand words, so here's a good example straight from Researcher showing a lay dutch bet.


This is a fixed stake bet, as always with my strategies betting 1 point per bet.



You can see Dawn Breaking, Dancin Boy, and Twin Appeal all selected in pink and have had lay bets placed at 1 point each fixed stake.


This was a winning bet meaning all three of the horses lost the race with the winner being Garden Oasis, shown with the W on the right of the image, and L for losing horse.


The returned profit as a result of the lay dutch being a winner as you will notice was +2.94 points after Betfair 2% commission.


The +7.84 number next to this is the running total profit including this win within the date range selected.


There is a lot more info in the screenshot obviously, this is the data used within the bot to decide what bets are placed, and something I'll cover in future blog posts.


Here is the same race using fixed liability BSP betting.



The points profit is lower obviously at 0.31 with fixed liability, given the max liability is just 1 point across all three horses, and the running total for the day is 0.84 points.


Confused, I hope not.


Basically, what you're seeing here is three horses that have had lay bets placed on them to lose the race. We are looking for none of them to win the race for us to win the bet.


With fixed stake lay betting the more horses the lower the risk, and higher the potential profit, as displayed with the +2.94 points profit.


With fixed liability you see the same bet across three horses, but with lower returns given the entire bet is 1 point.


This is basically a Dutch bet definition, backing multiple selections for one potential return, and with fixed liability it is set at max liability just like a standard back to win Dutch.


However, with a fixed stake Dutch much like the examples in the blog post listed above, you're risking more than your set stake per bet depending on the odds of the horses you're laying with the lay Dutch.




You can see in the example above that three horses were included in the lay dutch, but one of them won so it was a losing bet overall.


The loss came to -10.22 points, and you can see the running total over this period at -20.09 points.

This is betting as stated using fixed stake, but had the benefit of reducing the overall loss.


If the lay bet had just been on the horse that won the race, Akmaam at odds of 13.22, and not the other two, the loss would have been 12 points, but as the other lay bets won for us on Touchwood, and Tell'em Nowt, the loss was reduced by approx 2 points.


With fixed stake there is the risk of always losing more with the bet, but overall it proves to make more over time.


Here is the same race example using fixed liability BSP.



The loss has still been reduced as more bets have been placed, so it is less than 1 point, and it would have won more if the bet had won as shown in the above example using fixed liability, given more than one horse was bet on in the race.

However, the overall loss is a lot less and you will notice the running total over this period at -1.48.


They both have pro's and con's depending which method you use and which option, ie Main or High.


Last week 14.9.20 to 20.9.20 Lay Dutching Main returned +21.56 points profit as you can see below, betting using fixed stake, and with no losing bets.



The same time period and set of results only using fixed liability.




Now let's broaden the timeframe from the 14.9.20 to this moment at typing this section of the blog at 6.28pm on the 24.9.20.




Some losses this week, but fixed stake betting is still showing a profit of +11.13 points, with a strike rate of 91.67% and 16.31 point drawdown.


The Race Bets stat shown is the qualifying races, and Actual Bets is as you would imagine self explanatory with the number of horses bet on across these races.




Over the same period of time using fixed liability BSP a slight loss of -0.35 points, more actual bets as the service didn't need to stop down at -3 points like fixed stake over certain days, with a strike rate at 85.71%, and no stress drawdown of 2.95 points.


Here are the results so far with fixed liability BSP Lay Dutching Main option selected, from the 1.6.20 to 24.9.20 at 7.17pm.




A steady 12.02 points, 90% strike rate due to more bets placed as the stop down of -3 points is harder to reach with fixed liability compared to fixed stake, and 3.09 points drawdown.


Here are the results so far with fixed stake Lay Dutching Main option selected from the 1.6.20 to 24.9.20 at 7.17pm.



A very positive +145.99 points profit recorded, with 92.13% strike rate, and 34.69 points drawdown.


You can see winning and losing days and weeks from the stats and graphs above.


With horse racing automated betting it's about staying in the game long enough to make a decent return on your investment, and more so using fixed stake as that comes with more risk, but the potential of higher profits.


If you look at anything short term you're out the game, because along the way there will be ups and downs you need to allow for.


Setting your comfort level and investment amount at a level you can let run for the duration, and if you're operating a high risk but higher reward option, making sure you have another points balance in reserve as you would with any investment.


Both of the lay betting systems included in this post have the potential to return a lot of money over the years to come. but this is also dependent on how you run them with your staking.


As you know I report my results using a flat stake per bet of 1 point, and this never changes.


My advice is always to prepare for this with your bank management, think about how you allocate your funds to each betting option, and set up your percentage stakes.


You can go in and amend these at any time, and I know a percentage of members do this daily according to the current percentage of bank.


To be fair I used to do it this way when I began, and you can build a balance exponentially this way, but I found over time that the biggest win and can be the biggest loss operating like this, and In can still see enough positive balance growth flat staking but increasing my investment amount in total each year. As opposed to adjusting my percentage of bank each day.


There is absolutely nothing wrong with doing this, as long as you know the winning runs are always followed by a few losses, and if your stakes are sky high at that point after a good run it can topple the balance and give you a lump in your throat...


I will go in to more detail about how I set up my own balances for each strategy, but to follow my exact method you would need more than one Betfair account, and more subscriptions to each service to be able to operate the different staking methods at the same time.

Which I'm not expecting anybody to do, and as you can see from the stats above choosing the right option for your own comfort level is the absolute most important thing. I get emails all the time from a variety of different member types, some who never follow the racing and just check in every once and a while, others who go race to race and enjoy watching the bets placed while following the action.


I've a wide variety of members that's a fact, all using different stake amounts, with different plans.


I'd never be looking to advise you to do it one way or another, as I reiterate again and again, I want you to set up for the long term, and enjoy the process running it using money you can afford to put in.


That's the key here, as you can see from the graphs they win and they also lose over time, but overall across the weeks and months the balance growth pushes the running total in the right direction.


You can see this in the examples above that show the running total, and the graphs themselves. Which means you should be well prepared before you get started.


With this type of betting the wins can come like buses and in the meantime you can be hanging around.


As long as you're set up to be in the game for the duration the aim is to be there when the rewarding periods arrive, and not miss the bus so to speak.


There is no way to scientifically predict in what order the wins and losses will arrive, but we set ourselves up with the best chance of long term success, while accepting there will be losses and some frustration along the way.


Two points I've touched on here, my style of investing using these automated strategies, and the running total, which are two separate blogs in their own right.


Which brings me to the end of this news post as it's now 9pm and I have to be up early to travel to a specialist dentist as I'm falling apart.


I'll cover the two backing strategies Bet Advantage and Sure Favs in another post I'm aiming to publish on Sunday this week.


Any questions as always email me at ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk, and I'll get back to you asap.


Thanks for reading.


Ryan


#horseracing #betting #laybetting #betfair #exchange #dutch #dutchbetting #makemoneyonline #workathome #bettingbot #automated #betting #bettingsystem #fixedstake #fixedliability #stake #bet #liability #lay #back




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