Bet & Trade News 22nd September

Introduction


After starting this blog post with the intention of a brief news update, I quickly realised with the sheer amount of content I want to cover I'll have to spread this over three or four posts.


The betting strategies need a proper introduction and how they are set up to bet.


I want to go over the ups and downs of running automated betting.


The difference between fixed stake and fixed liability with some examples of this.


Expand more on running multiple services.


How I've set up my staking, which is a blog in itself.


Additionally I want to demonstrate the running totals with examples over a few strategies.


As this gives a clear picture on how the betting process can operate over time, which is important and can be the difference between winning long term and quitting short term.


It will be easier showing the running totals with a few videos, so this will definitely be something for early next week.


In tonight's post I will cover what's coming up soon in the pipeline & fixed liability betting vs fixed stake for the lay betting services.


I've posted some interesting screenshots below from Racing Lays, showing betting comparisons for both lay betting styles.


For more information on the automated betting strategies available, please visit www.exponentialbet.co.uk


In The Pipeline


Firstly let me give you some news on the Trading Service.


The Trade Guide update which I began prior to lockdown, and was set to be released using Hedger Pro, I'm working to make this available by the end of this month.


The strategy covered in the trade guide is an older one, but still works just as well as it did when first introduced in 2017.


I'll show how this is able to be set up to automate with live trades using Hedger Pro, which is now free to use, anyone accessing the guide will be able to find regularly tradeable horses pre race.


It's decent and effective trade tool in the right hands, and I've made a good profit applying these trades.


Also on the way is a more sophisticated method using a different approach, set up to automate the selection method, and can be integrated into current Cloud Bet Bot memberships.


More to follow on this soon, but firstly I'll ready the Trade Guide aiming for end of September.


Nigel has developed an in play platform that gives data about the racing ahead of what you're watching on TV.


As an example, if the TV feed (Betfair Video) is about 5 seconds behind the racing, you will be about 4.5 seconds ahead of the TV stream.


This obviously has huge benefits to give you an edge if you set up your day correctly, as we can profit from in play betting, laying, backing, trading in running, with a cash out feature built in.


This is in demand with some big movers in the betting industry keen to get their hands on it, but as an Exponential Bet member you will be involved in this from release, and have exclusive promotional access.

I'll build in some of my own in play strategies to get you started, but you will have the flexibility to create your own.


The timing to see what's happening in play ahead of the Betfair feed will be a massive advantage.


You will know what's happening next compared to what your fellow traders are watching, unless trackside of course.


This is the closest to race time feed available, and after seeing the development version in action I can confirm it's not a million miles away from being available.


Very exciting stuff indeed, and I just wanted to give you a sniff of what's being working on.


We've also been discussing software that allows members to create and run their own automated strategies for about a year now, and this has gradually been making steps to the development stage in the background.


Nigel has been moving this steadily in the right direction, and the concept of what's involved and platform itself is also nearing an early development stage.

Basically this allow members to run automated strategies built in, or create them using smart intuitive filters, then set them to automate on a platform much like Cloud Bet Bot.


You will be able to copy and paste existing strategies, then add your own filters to these, or just completely create your own from the ground up.


It will give everyone the ability to be able to assess race data in a unique way, then set their strategies to run fully automated. The same tools I use with Researcher to create my own automated betting strategies will be available within this platform.


Mine is custom made to the strategies themselves, but the filters and data options you will have will be exactly the same over a broader template, so you will have total freedom.


The actual automation is built in, and as you may know this is possible with a lot of the major brands out there right now, this is true, but have you tried to actually use betting bot automation.


You will mostly have to download software, so you've got that added stress of it running on your PC is there. PC crashing, internet down, software issues, a windows update decides to run etc etc.


If it's an online version that stress is removed. The software we will have available for you is online, so you don't have that download set up headache to deal with.


The difference with this compared to other online betting bot automated set ups, is the intuitive platform when it comes to system creation. I've others very complicated to understand, and there has always been some steep learning curve.

Personally I've used Fairbot and provided downloadable strategies to import for members in the past, but as great as Fairbot is the entire process of using the editor to automate my betting and trading was very complex.


I've found this to be the case with all betting and trading platforms, with some requiring a quantum mechanics degree.


Additionally, when assessing the race data to come to a decision about what to bet on, this is mostly a separate process away from the bot itself that disrupts the entire concept of what you're trying to achieve.


The programming element is detached from the creative aspect, whereas with this new platform the creation to automation is integrated, and this makes life as simple as possible not interrupting your creativity.


The platform I'm describing above will allow you to filter through data, live test, and make the jump between manual betting from your racing assessments in the most seamless way possible.


Right, times a ticking....


I'll let you know more on in play betting, trading, the pre race trading guide, and software release in separate news posts to come.


Also have more info over the coming weeks about another potential addition to the automated services, or quite possibly something more manual for members to operate, it just requires some of my time but is definitely worth the effort.


The work put in creating the fully automated strategies running using Cloud Bet Bot recently has been both exhausting, but incredibly rewarding.


I'm not credit hunting here btw, no way, it's just a lot of huff and puff to bridge the reality gap has been required.


I will need some time off soon, as Nigel took three weeks during the development of this upgrade to go to Scotland and be attacked by midges, but for now I've still some gas in the tank, and can see out the remainder of this year with a day or two off each week to myself. #layingfacedowninadarkroomintotalsilence

Betting Options


As you may or may not know, each automated service now has options ranging from High to Low settings, with the highest the broader option placing bets over more days with wider filters, which in most cases allows more opportunity to bet.


We also have more cautious options with fewer days betting, stricter criteria, and overall a lower drawdown risk attached compared to these high options.


For more info on how these are set up and over what days they run please visit the strategy pages and check the 'System Overview' bullet points.


I will cover each strategy in a lot more detail, and what to expect over time in another post.


The crux of it is they are set up for each member to have more control over how they bet.


You can use the high risk higher reward versions and build this into your bank management planning, or opt for the much lower risk with a lesser return but more stable profit growth, giving members this extra level to decide which bet style suits.

The lay betting strategies also have the ability to select Fixed Stake or Fixed Liability within the available options.


The difference between these variations of staking is significant, and before deciding which is right for you a definite understanding of the differences is essential.


Fixed Stake vs Fixed Liability


With Racing Lays and Lay Dutching strategies the option to select either fixed stake or fixed liability betting is available.


This is because they bet on horses to lose, which is called lay betting.


Both options exist on the Betfair exchange to bet this way, but only with fixed liability can you bet using BSP.

With backing strategies you have one option to back a horse, and the money you put on is the amount you risk for that bet.


You can bet to win on the exchange or place, but all of these options operate a flat stake.


Even a Dutch bet is a flat stake amount, as you're only ever risking that amount no matter how many horses are covered within the bet. You would never be put in a position with a bet for example where the liability would depend on the odds when you back bet, which does apply with fixed stake lay betting.


If you lay a horse at odds of 20 for 1 point as an example using fixed stake the risk for the bet would be 19 points. Your return on the win would be your fixed stake amount, ie 1 point.


If you lay the same horse at odds of 20 for 1 point using fixed liability then the amount you risk is 1 point. If you would win this bet the return would be around 0.05 points, so you can see the difference between risk reward here.


The way they operate is massively different, and something you need to take into account when assessing your comfort levels with risk.

As fixed stake can be on a good run and make a lot of profit, but also more susceptible to hitting a higher odds bet that loses and requires another good run to recover. Which to be fair can be done quickly all going to plan.

If the service has a high enough strike rate a loss of 19 points can be recovered in a days racing which has been proven, and sometimes still return a profit on the day, but if you had a few situations with high odds losing bets in a short period of time, it would potentially give your balance a wallop and it would go south very quickly.


Any higher risk strategies like this should have good money management, and operate a reserve points balance in my opinion.


Fixed liability reduces the grey hair moments, but typically the balance growth is slower.


However, for a lot of members this is fine because they use large sums and the lower risk is vitally important to sustain the investment, with the smaller margins using a big balance that can mean large sums of money with the smaller percentage gains.


I get asked about fixed stake and fixed liability a fair bit, so excuse any repetition here, but I want to make sure I drill this one home to ensure everyone makes the right decision for their own betting style.


Fixed liability lay betting you set your maximum amount of risk per bet, and this is the total amount you bet exactly like a back to win bet, only betting to lose.

The downside of this if lay betting over evens is that you're only getting a percentage of the amount you're staking, which you will see in the screenshots below.


Anything below evens with fixed liability and you're quid's in, and can win more than your staked amount the lower the price, providing you win of course.


With both of the the lay betting services Racing Lays and Lay Dutching you will find three stake methods in the drop down, two for fixed liability, ie exchange and BSP, and one for fixed stake.


The reason no BSP option exists for fixed stake is simply that Betfair do not provide this feature.


This has nothing to do with us, it is 100% down to Betfair so please Google this for more info, or contact them directly if you have any questions about why they do not offer fixed stake lay betting using BSP, as we have no idea and cannot help unfortunately. If I could I would as they say.


The fact of the matter is they only allow fixed liability BSP betting, so we offer both exchange and BSP fixed liability options, with fixed stake bets placed direct to the exchange close to post time.


I have set up the lay betting services to bet as close as possible to race start, so to capture a near as possible BSP price with fixed stake betting, but there will always be some difference given the bets are placed one minute to post, and not to BSP (Betfair Start Price).


Additionally, as they are going on to the exchange it's easy to collapse a market on a horse with our bets, so we built in a five point offset to give everyone the best chance of being matched.


This means that whatever the max odds are set this could tip over 5 tiks if we gobble up the liquidity.


Another point to note here, we do also offer below minimum stake betting, which as you know with Betfair is set at £2.00 for backing and £10.00 for laying using BSP.


You can set your stake as low as ten pence with Cloud Bet Bot, which means if you're operating a fixed stake betting plan using a smaller balance, you can do this using just pence and don't need to worry about Betfair's minimum rules.


It's also good for confidence building when you start betting, and a huge bonus for anybody trying to build a smaller balance over time using these automated strategies.


Hypothetically if you wanted to fixed stake for the increased profits to begin with, you could do so with a smaller balance (with another in reserve), then when targets are met move to a fixed liability option using a larger balance.


Here is are some examples of fixed stake vs fixed liability winning and losing bets.


In this example you can see the selection Nakeeta which was a lay bet at odds of 17 using fixed stake as the option.


The horse went on to win, and the loss was -16 points. With the running total for this day you can see at -20.35.



In this example you can see the same horse that was a lay bet using fixed liability as the option, same result obviously apart from the loss was just -1 point, but the running total for the day was still positive at +1.18 points.




These examples are from the week commencing 14.9.20 to the 20.9.20, and you can see above that using fixed liability lay betting we returned +5.71 points profit that week, with a max drawdown of 4.24 points.


Looking down the list of races you will see OK next to most which are the races the strategy placed bets, and a percentage of the 1 point profit per race dependant on the odds of the horse, or a -1 point loss on the obvious losing bets which is the fixed liability amount.




In comparison to the fixed stake lay betting over this time period you can see the difference, at +3.06 points profit, but with a max drawdown of 33.59 points.


Now you may be thinking why risk the higher drawdown using fixed stake and potential high odds losing bets hitting the balance.




Here are the results for Racing Lays from the 1.9.20 up to time of writing at 19:47 on the 22.9.20 (incidentally the final race of the day was a winning profitable bet for us).


You can see from the screenshot a profit of +49.30 points, the max drawdown is still 33.59, and I've circled the four significant losing periods over the month.


If you're comfortable with the fact the strategy will inevitably hit these dips but has shown to recover quickly, and has the potential for sizable profits over the long stretch, then fixed stake is a good option for you.


The centre shows a snapshot of recent bets, with the running total to the right for the month, and winning and losing amounts, and as you can see the strike rate is 83.07 so far in September.

Taking into account the losing lays at fixed stake using 1 point per bet to return +49.30 points is good going, but like I have flogged to death in this post you must be okay with the big losing periods and that level of drawdown.

If not, or you're looking to put more in and need BSP or happier with the smaller margins but less risk, then fixed liability may be the better option for you.




Still returning an impressive +18.21 points over the month to date, but with a much lower drawdown of 5.50 points, and no notable big dips to circle in red, with a much smoother line of growth betting with the fixed liability option running Racing Lays 1.9.20 to 22.9.20.


You can see the wins and losses down the centre with running total, which handles the losses very well as they are always just 1 point as this is my max liability set, and recovers nicely with a steadier line in the graph and no heart attack moments.


However, this is under half the profit returned using fixed stake, has a lower ROI etc, but with a fraction of the risk.


If you have the patience to play the longer game, this could be the better option for you when it comes to lay betting.


You can find out more about Racing Lays and subscribe here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/racing-lays


Ideally this explains the difference between fixed stake and fixed liability for you, and you can now decide on the best option.


Within Cloud Bet Bot you can only select one bet option per strategy, so set out your stall from the offset, and enjoy the betting process is my advice.


If you have any questions, or would like to register interest in some of the coming soon services covered above, drop me an email to ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk and I'll get back to you asap.


I'll post again on Thursday with introductions to each automated service, and a breakdown of what I feel are the primary things you should expect when deciding to run these betting systems.


Thanks for reading.


Ryan


#horseracing #betting #laybetting #fixedstake #fixedliability #makemoneyonline #workathome #betfair #exchange #bsp #invest #inplay #trading #learntotrade #betfairtrader


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