In today's news update:
Sure Favs performance assessment since last years trend update.
An important reminder for Racing Lays members.
An important quarterly reminder for members who use Ratchet betting.
Other news...
Before we get started today I'd just like to inform you the results for all services are now updated and available to view at Exponential Bet.
This includes the weekly, detailed overview, and ratchet figures. Monthly results will be updated by the 6th June news update.
Last week we had a few outstanding results for some of the services doing very well, while dropping some points for other services. All of which is part of operating long term automated betting strategies, par for the course as they say.
They will have long win runs and show a steep increase in balance growth that you can see in each of the graphs for the services, or go through sometimes long periods of no growth, or dips in form for months, before settling and then hitting a spike in profit that often returns the high numbers published.
Some of course are much more consistent with lower drawdowns and steadier lines of balance growth, but all do show profit with varied performance levels, so I'd advise you assess them all to find the right fit for you.
They are set up as investments, and the stats and graphs show the periods clearly which have given us the profit and the drawdown.
Everything can be examined by selecting the service you wish to view from the main menu under Betting Strategies, then from the drop down choose what you wish to see in more detail.
Sure Favs Performance Assessment
I posted a news blog on the 25th April covering Racing Lays and how it reached +127 points profit growth since the trend update was applied on the 30th October 21. You can read more on this via the link below, but today I want to do the same for Sure Favs which has notably seen the same upward trend in profits since the the update was applied.
Here's a link to the Racing Lays post in case you missed it: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/127-points-profit-in-approx-6-months
The subject line for today's news blog refers to Sure Favs High betting for approximately the last six and a half months, which coincides with the trend analysis update applied on the 1st November 2021.
Sure Favs High - Exchange Straight - 1/11/21 to 15/5/22
It's no coincidence we have a sharp upturn in profit since the trend update applied to this Sure Favs betting option, and what makes it all the more impressive is the low drawdown given the volume of bets over the betting period.
The +87.92 points profit is excellent of course, but the fact it was achieved with minimal risk and well within the allocated points showing a max drawdown of just 17.81 is very cool, because this favourite backing option looks at the value bets, ie the horses who are the jolly in the race, but not exactly odds on at decimal odds upward of 3.0.
Not always the obvious bet if you know what I mean, and that makes it even more satisfying for me as a strategy creator.
This is reflected in the average odds at 4.16 MTP (minutes to post) with nothing in it between BSP and MTP over the timeline.
Another very interesting stat is the 68 winning days and 68 losing, which as we know can come in any particular order, usually like buses.
It's important we look at these numbers when deciding what strategies to operate, and to understand that in order to make a long term profit we also have to accept losses along the way.
From January to April 2022 specifically this shows a period of no overall profit growth after the initial burst from the 1st November to end of December 2021.
Then from April to May 2022 so far we see another spike in profit banked that increased the points tally by approx. +50 points.
Overall since the trend update the performance has been recorded as such, a period of high growth, followed by months of up and down with no progress, then another steep upward curve of profit banked up where we are right now.
What will follow next with Sure Favs High, a period of continued growth, or another period of up and down before we spike again, it's impossible to know as these are fully automated betting strategies, but what we can see so far is a robust favourite backing selection method in operation, with live betting recorded showing an impressive strike rate and ROI.
What I do know with Sure Favs High is that over the years to come it's a solid long term betting investment, and if managed within the recommended points allocation since it's trend update this will be an asset to any bet investment portfolio.
The results above are all live bets placed, not projections or back dated numbers, these are the results since the trend analysis template was introduced to the filters, and the bot started betting for members using these selections for Sure Favs High.
Sure Favs includes three betting strategies with its membership, and each of the three options had a trend update applied last year.
Sure Favs Main is one of the three bet options, and this had its update introduced on the 3rd October 2021 with the results from this date to the 15th May 2022 shown below.
Sure Favs Main has bets just four days a week, Thursday to Sunday compared to Sure Favs High and Foundation that bet over the entire week.
The winning and losing day numbers are both still very close with this Sure Favs option, but the wins having the slight edge.
The profit banked at +68.01 points using MTP looks even better when stacked against the minimal risk over approx. 7.5 months betting, with a drawdown at just 10.19 points.
The figures for this favourite backing strategy look great, and unlike the High option Main does bet on the odds on horses up to a max odds of 7 decimal.
You can see this represented in the graph more than anywhere else, as it's a lot more spikey over the timeline, but from start to end point has a very eye catching upward line of growth.
The third Sure Favs option in operation is Foundation, and this had its trend update on the 20th September 2021. You can see the results from this shown below up to the 15th May.
There is of course profit banked over the timeline of approx. 8 months, but it's a lot more up and down than the other two Sure Favs services.
Foundation bets one minute past post time to try and capitalize on late market moves for the favourite horse in the race past the post time, with the theory being there will more often than not be a valid reason for this.
Looking at the chunk of data over the 8 months with the profit and drawdown I think the edge for Foundation is a fine line between success and failure.
However, I know 8 months is in fact not a massive amount of data to assess, and there is another trend update to come for Foundation later this month using the Researcher tool and live bets.
The fact it is holding its own which is shown to better effect looking at the detailed overview results on the Sure Favs page means the service is close to achieving its full potential, but definitely not there yet.
When I've worked with the Main and High options using Researcher to apply the trend updates you can see above with the live betting results we end up with a smoother line of consistent growth, even with Main being more jerky than High it still pieces together individual lines of bet data that create a reliable swell of profit.
With Foundation it is effectively breaking even and not achieving the smooth line yet, but coming close to pushing on to be consistently profitable. It had a prolific start, then just slowed right down to a minimal profit increase over the timeline to date.
I'll keep you informed here in the weekly news updates when I introduce the next trend update to Foundation.
All Sure Favs strategies operate within their own algorithmic set of rules to fire the bets to the market, each have different criteria programmed into them, and they do not simply go for the favourite in every race, which I think is obvious by the number of bets placed over the timeframe compared to the number of meetings.
Like all the betting strategies they are fully automated and once set up according to the recommended points staking should be left to run unattended.
The points and selection parameters for all the Exponential Bet strategies are set up with a twelve month timeframe in mind to invest, then reassess, and reinvest.
Before I wrap up today's Sure Favs overview I want to bring to your attention the Ratchet setting for all three options since the 1st March to 15th May 2022.
This has a 1% Ratchet applied to the staking, and like all the Ratchet options I operate has a quarterly reset in place, so at the end of this month I'll wipe the Ratchet calculation that's been giving the stake a boost each time the balance increases, and restart from the 1st June to the end of August.
Sure Favs High 1% Ratchet
Sure Favs Main 1% Ratchet
Sure Favs Foundation 1% Ratchet - Exchange Straight
It demonstrates how a gentle Ratchet of just 1% over a short burst of three months can give the profit a boost.
This does control the volatility of Ratchet betting quite well, and does not allow your stakes to reach dangerous levels that can wipe a balance with just a handful of bets.
It could cause a big dent in your points balance or accumulated profits that's a fact, and should you hit a handful of losses later in the three month cycle it is worse than at the start, but compared to letting it run for the year or longer which will create an uncontrollable swing in the staking resetting every quarter is the most sensible way to operate a Ratchet stake, to the best of my knowledge.
All feedback on this very welcome if you have a better way to run a Ratchet balance for the automated services.
Sure Favs High obviously is the stand out for profits above, but there is something very appealing to me and satisfying as a service provider when I see a drawdown of just 3.98 points for Sure Favs Main, with a profit banked at +31.91. Very low risk.
Anyway, I hope you found today's Sure Favs update useful and it's highlighted some key areas of the service and betting options you might have missed.
An important reminder for Racing Lays members
Just a quick reminder to please make sure your staking is set to HIGH option only.
As each option operates the same selection filters, and the other two, Main and +5 Stop will be removed by the end of this month.
I'll then show the single results from the trend update for Racing Lays, ie 30th October, and archive the overall results to make them available to navigate to from the main page, but to represent the live bets that have been placed for all three options since the update on to a single set of results on the immediate Racing Lays page.
I'll send an email to all RL members next Monday as a final reminder to switch to HIGH before removing the other two.
An important quarterly reminder for members who use Ratchet betting
If you're following my quarterly resets for Ratchet betting the next is due at the end of this month.
To do this you would go to your service that is set to Ratchet bet, select it under Your Services, then just to the top right of your Bet History select Clear Bets after the final race of the month of May has finished, and before the first race of June commences.
On the 31st May when racing finishes in the evening I'd recommend you set a reminder on your phone or watch or heart monitor (in may case ;-), and follow the instructions above.
Other News
The only other news I have to share with you today is really that I have started working on the first do it yourself guide for In Play Betting, which I'm aiming to have available in June.
Additionally, the first bets went on for In Play Bet Club last week, and I'm pleased to report everybody was matched with liquidity not being an issue.
At the TPD Bet Mover meeting last week the liquidity of the markets both pre race and in play was a hot topic, and even the representative from Betfair couldn't give definitive information on the subject of whether it is improving or decreasing.
I personally can't see much difference and think that very often small fluctuations can be socioeconomic, or in the case of racing the longer term effect of recovering from Covid when racing was stopped for a couple of months, as this has to have a ripple effect, plus the impact on people's ability to bet, and on top of this the tighter gambling restrictions being enforced to the industry all mount up to have some sort of effect on things.
Like anything though this may prove to be the opposite of what most predict, so we will see.
The fact all members were matched in play though on the first bet, and seeing a long list of settled bets was exactly what I expected, as we set a max number of members for a valid reason.
Another factor that I put to the test without even trying was to see if everyone would be matched if I placed a bet at my max odds, which is between 10 to 12 decimal, and this bet was exactly that.
Very encouraging from a liquidity point of view, but I'm not so encouraged I want to open the doors to unlimited numbers of members as I think I have it about right at 50, which was based on the money flowing through the market in running, and bets placed up to my max odds according to staking tiers.
The fact everyone was matched however I feel was largely down to the quarter of max stake approach I have in operation. This was explained to all In Play Bet Club members ahead of going live, but it is as you'd imagine.
The max stake is set in the bot, and whatever I live in running bet I place it uses a quarter of the max stake as liability.
I would then place a max of four per race which would take everyone up to the stake amount entered, but in reality mostly less than this, and as most bet odds reduce from when I place the bet it can typically squeeze out more value.
It can also mean not all four bets are matched if the prices drift too much before the race finished, or in the case of the first live bet if the horse falls, pulls up, unseats rider, or is brought down.
I'll post an update to all IPBC members after publishing today's blog to outline my schedule of betting this week.
Okay, that's it from me today. I've always got loads of news and things I can cover in great detail and write the hind legs off a donkey, but I'll wrap up here for now and be back next week with another news update.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan
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