It's taken a while to adjust to the new race card, and initially in July JV MK2 Betting System struggled to settle in, but with a few adjustments to accommodate to the obvious changes to racing, we're now back to showing the form we had pre lockdown. In fact, we're performing even better.
With just a few simple adjustments we've been able to win 13 days of the past 14, and see a points balance increase of 28.72.
This is a back to win betting system, looking for the most likely winner in each race, and bets placed just minutes pre race to try to increase the chances of success.
Since I began dev testing this version after taking over the service in January, from the 1/1/20 to 9/8/20 I'm delighted to report 64.71 points profit.
BTW, all results shown are recorded to Betfair Starting Price, BSP.
A strike rate of 39.03%, with an average odds per bet of 3.19. The drawdown from looking at the graph you can see is circa 20 points so far, and that's taking in to account the poor restart in July when we recommenced betting.
If you had followed Keith's version of the JV System up until I took mine out of dev and made it available for members, you would have recovered nearly half of your losses already, and this is taking into account lockdown with no racing for 10 weeks.
I promised you a full recovery of losses following Keith's JV System over a year, and I'm halfway to target achieving this in approx 4 months.
I could go on and on about Keith and the way he ran this service down, and given every opportunity to turn it around working with us, but I only want to focus on the positives, as nothing I can do can change what happened, all I can do is focus on continuing to make what we have a success for all members, new and old.
If you haven't read my Running Total Pt 1 blog I'd suggest taking a look at the graph above, and then giving a look: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/running-total-assessment-pt1
You can see from the graph we've had some ups and downs along the way, most recently since resuming betting after lockdown.
Anyone that quit betting then thinking the service would not recover has missed the profits since then reported above.
These things take time, and as long as you're managing your percentage stakes to deal with the dips in form, you're in the game and able to reach the profit highs with these betting systems.
Anyway, I cover this extensively in that blog post, and after a very busy day both replying to lots of emails, writing another blog post about RDB Dutch, and working on the foundation update for JV MK2 and RDB Dutch, I can feel a long waffle about to come on, so I'll reel myself in.
All that remains to cover is, this week for JV MK2 running along side the Dev JV MK2 operating the Foundation Update, that is kindly being tested by my volunteers, side by side this is how the numbers stack up, and what I've learned so far.
Let's begin with Dev Test.
You can see below we've had 73 bets, and won 29, giving us a strike rate of 39.73%.
That's actually pretty good, and with a drawdown of 11.33 points, with a profit of 6.46 points, a promising first week of testing.
Now the caveats with the JV MK2 Dev Test version so far, in at least four bets, two of which were winners, we had a handful of members not matched.
The first winning bet scenario was just BSP bettors affected, so this bet did not go on for them but did for Exchange. This is simply due to the time it takes us to tell Betfair to place your bets with the software.
I'll explain more in a moment, but the second bet that wasn't fired for some members was due to their stake size, as it only affected very small stakes testing, which without Nigel here to confirm I think has something to do with the quick calculation required for small stakes under minimum Betfair required odds.
We allow these small stakes bets as Nige programmed the bot to do so, whereas you would not be able to place them yourself direct to the exchange now without betting software also programmed to allow them.
Betfair did a full clean up of this in June that affected our start time, but that's another story, and something we got around that does not affect JV MK2 members running the live version.
Overall, taking into account the two losing bets not placed the results with the two winning bets not placed will be there or thereabouts with what I reported above.
It will always be a factor with this version of JV MK2, given a split second between a race jumping off can be the deciding factor of being matched or not, whereas for live JV MK2 the bets are decided at 1 minute to post, so everyone should always be matched.
Which brings me onto my explanation.
Dev Test JV MK2 is set to fire the bets past post time, this is -1 MTP plus time to collate odds, which is an extra few seconds, and it does this because A) it wants to capture the most likely horse to win according to my selection filters, and the pressure of the market right at race jump time, and B) if you take a look at the stats below from the 17th Feb to 8th Aug, you'll see that running the strategy this way, and uncapped, ie without a stop up on the profit per race, the potential for large points profits is astonishing.
The results above show running JV MK2 Dev in this way from the 17th Feb, which is always my reference point pre lockdown, 121.82 points were banked, with 21.39 points drawdown.
A strike rate of 39.66% which remains consistent with this weeks test phase, and with 50 winning days from the 90 the strategy was involved in.
It's the uncapped potential of JV MK2 Dev Version, which is running the Foundation Update, that makes a lot of appeal.
Both version of JV MK2, Live and Foundation operate a stop down feature of -5 points in any given day.
The foundation version will be available for all JV MK2 members as an optional extra, so you can either run both JV MK2 Live, or JV MK2 Foundation under your settings once this is added to the live Cloud Bet Bot on Nigel's return from his jollies.
That's a lot of points over approximately 3.5 actual betting months, taking into account lockdown which you can see in the graph above.
At that rate if maintained would put us on target somewhere upward of +400 points over a year, which as this works alongside the live version just adds to the overall balance growth / betting portfolio.
JV MK2 Live which is the main betting system currently in operation in comparison to JV MK2 Dev from the 2/8/20 to the 9/8/20 performed very well as shown below.
17.79 points profit banked since last week, with a tiny fraction of the bets required with JV MK2 Dev.
Just a 3 point drawdown as well, which is excellent, and incredible strike rate of 69.23%.
As stated above the dev version is uncapped, but we operate the live version with a 1 point stop up. Obviously we can return more than this, depending on the run of bets, odds on the winners etc, but once this is hit the bot stops betting.
Running both Dev and Live with these limits prove profitable. You can see below from the 1/6/20 when racing began to 9/8/20, had I been running this exact mix of filters and timing for the bet, which is 1 minute to post, we would have returned 56.60 points during this time.
As you can see we didn't get it all our own way using this betting method, but enough of the time to recover losses, and stay in the game long enough to reap the rewards, which is why I always bang on about correct money management, and only starting these systems if you intend to stick at them, otherwise serious what's the point.
How many would have quit at 15.36 points drawdown, and then missed the 56.60 points overall profit during this time if running these filters.
These are the settings for JV MK2 that we're sticking with, and they are on target to deliver +200 points target profit over the 12 month period, in fact I'm hopeful this is a modest estimate.
You can subscribe to the JV MK2 Betting System here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/jv-system
Okay that's me calling it a night as I've written two blog posts tonight, and still not covered all the news I have for members, and will need to write more later next week.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan
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