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In Play Bet Club Detailed Overview 29th May

In Play Bet Club is set to commence betting using full automation from Thursday 1st June 2023.


If you're an existing member you may want to check your staking set up after reading the information below.


I will post a separate email to members on Wednesday evening to remind you betting will start from Thursday.


The service operates a three tier set of options for members.


The only change I have made to the original published rules is to the pledged target results, as these will be met regardless of what stake a member uses.


As an example, Tier 3 has a pledged target profit of £1200. This was originally set up to achieve this amount provided members bet with £100 per bet.


Which meant the service stopped betting at 12 points, not the £1200 regardless of stake used.


Betting would stop only at 12 points, members would receive an invite to rejoin, and the cycle repeats.


It was initially geared toward manual betting, but now we are using automation, and in the interest of making things fair and more flexible for members, the way it operates across all tiers for members is as follows.


Regardless of the tier level you join, you can bet up to the maximum stipulated stake amount, ie tier 1 is £25, tier 2 is £50, and tier 3 is £100.


This is set within the software to bet fixed liability, so your stake entered is there or thereout your maximum liability.


Give or take obviously as it's an exchange bet, and odds can fluctuate, but it is very close to stake if all sections of the bet are matched.


However, you can now bet below your maximum stake amount, so if your on tier 2 as an example, and your max stake allowed is £50, you can bet any amount below this, and your target profit will be reached before you are required to re join should you wish to continue.

Tier 2 target is £600 profit after commission, and a member at this tier can use any amount from £50 or less to reach £600, before they will be required to rejoin and carry on betting.


This applies for all tiers, so you could be on tier 1 with a max stake allowed of £25, and be betting with £2. Your pledged target profit still remains at £300, so your betting would not stop until you reached this amount.


In fact, your betting would not stop anyway, as you would receive another invite before it was due to be reached, and some grace afterwards to allow time to re join.


This now makes it an effortless process for existing members to keep betting even after target has been met, never lose their space in the club, and have plenty of time to pay for another bet cycle.


Members have total control of their software, so the bot can be stopped or started at any time.


If the bot was left to run, we would only stop after you have reached target profit, and every effort had been made to inform you, and with enough time to re join before offering the space to the waiting list.


The main point here is, no matter what membership level you are on, set your stake to a comfortable amount up to the maximum level allowed, anywhere below this level, and you will still have the bot running for you until it reaches the target amount for your tier level.

Tier 1 is £300

Tier 2 is £600

Tier 3 is £1200


You do not need to bet to your maximum stake allowed to hit your target, but if you do want to, the ability to do so is still there.


We will only request that you renew when target profit has been reached for the tier level of your membership.


I hope this makes sense, any questions let me know.

I've now changed this on the In Play Bet Club page to represent the update.


I think it's a much fairer way to run things.


A final point to add, as I have been asked this question a few times, but if you wish to upgrade to a higher tier and allow more stake to be used, this would need to be applied for by email.

Depending on the numbers at the level above your tier, and liquidity all being good with no known issues, this would be perfectly fine in most instances, and I would then facilitate the process.


For anyone new to the site, or looking to join In Play Bet Club, this is an invitation only service with a maximum membership of fifty.


The service has no reoccurring subscription. Instead members pay a one off fee for one of the three tier entry levels, and when the target profit is met for that level, members will then have the option to renew and continue, or offer their space to the waiting list.


If you would like to register to be offered a place when they become available, you can do so on the In Play Bet Club page here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/in-play-bet-club


There are three available spaces to be taken, which I will post to the waiting list in a fair order of distribution tomorrow evening.


Please accept my apologies to anyone waiting and checking their inbox today, the invites will definitely be sent tomorrow after 5pm, and before midnight.


In today's detailed overview:

  • Introduction to In Play Bet Club automation.

  • The profit & loss with drawdown graph.

  • Stats.

  • Bet settings.

  • Required from members.

Introduction:


Members voted for the In Play Bet Club to be fully automated, in order to benefit from available selections across the entire race card available via Bet Mover, seven days a week.


This was instead of the bets being manually placed by myself across three to four days a week, and sticking to the Bet Mover in play scheduled meetings.


There are differences between manual and automated betting, one of which being the software does not need time off, and each time the target profit cycle is reached the bot can just continue betting, whereas I would need a break in between (for my own sanity).


The amount of profit that can be made using automation over the long term is greater than I could accumulate over the same timeframe manually. It would fluctuate of course, but as a constant the bot has the advantage of consistency with the selections.


The bot is always precise, it has zero chance of variation with it's set of rules, as a bet is a bet providing all criteria are met at the exact time of selection.


As much as I follow that rulebook manually betting for members, I am only human, and my reaction time among other factors could mean I either miss a bet, or place it slightly out of time.


If betting just for myself these fluctuations in decision making are a lot more manageable, and even for a group of members they will level out over time, but the bot is 100% rule based, and as such it makes it possible to refine performance quickly over time, and have reliable data to assess without the human factor.


The human vs bot pro's and con's list is to be discussed another day, as they both have different added benefits, but in this instance the members decided the bot would win.


The purpose of this overview today is outline how the software bets for members in play, what they should expect, and prepare for.


The advantage of betting using the automation is that it gives added scope to improve and increase both bet volume. It means we have the ability to make more profit over the years to come.


The published results for In Play Bet Club on the main page are from my own personal records, my betting activity, which use one point per bet to a value of £100 fixed liability, aiming for a target profit of £1,200.


This took approximately four months, and was completed over the jump season.


If I was to do this for my membership it would mean only a proportion of the racing would be used, as the jump season does not run twelve months each year.


Additionally, the results I published used £100 per bet fixed liability, which if you're doing it yourself is completely doable, and in fact using a much higher stake in most cases, as the UK Horse Racing can accommodate these amounts.


Just betting for yourself is a different kettle of fish than running a service betting for fifty members.


If betting for myself and my membership, a more strategic approach is required for the stake per bet.


Whereby I split the bets in to groups across different odds at the time the bet is placed, and this at least gives everyone a good chance to be fully or partially matched.


The initial test with this was four bets, and up to odds of 10 for each of the filtering techniques.


If done for just one person would work, and for a group of fifty members this almost worked, but not quite.


The major difference between then and now, is the fact the bot bets down for value, with the bot settings configured for this approach.


It was obvious by the number of lapsed bets, and by the fact all the losing bets are always fully matched, with the winning bets partially matched causing difficulty to push ahead to a profit.


As an example, if we get matched on five bets over a day, five horses, and we have one loss, we can still finish in profit, depending on odds, but if we have only been partially matched on the four winning horses from the five, it's a lot tougher as the winnings will of course be less.


The strategies needed a far higher strike rate, and a way to benefit from value odds. Due to the partially matched bet returns, things needed to be much more efficient to continually push the balance the right way.


We have now achieved this with this June 2023 launch version of In Play Bet Club Automation.


This has been done by adapting the selection methods to be more efficient across an increased level of layers, by spreading the amount of fixed liability bets across ten bets per member for each selection, instead of four, and by only betting down from the odds we go in at to ensure we always get value on the bet.


The betting down to get value aspect has by far been the most difficult to achieve, but this means the flow of money is now heading the right way when the bets are fired to market. Absolutely critical for liquidity.


If you understand liquidity, it means the money is there pushing the price down, and gives us the best chance to get our bets matched across the ten per member we have positioned in the market.


This is a unique way of adapting the strategy, and tested with every single race for the past two years.


We now are no longer reliant on Bet Mover in play data. We cover the full race card, jumps, flat, every race is assessed each betting day for a qualifying bet.


Bet Mover is amazing, and I will be covering it in great detail within my upcoming In Play Guide, but for the purposes of automation for the In Play Bet Club, we now use Betfair data, and this gives us the ability to potentially bet in any and every race.


Using all the available race data from Betfair, we spent a large amount working to make the software find each bet that qualifies, and then process it through a liquidity randomizer.


Something created bespoke by Nigel to test how in play betting can be profitable. It takes into account partial and unmatched bets, while losing an entire point, on the losing bets.


It required a re work of the selection processes, which I will give you a broad stroke later in this post. More to come within the in play guide.


The randomization within the software, and live bet testing to see how that software projection marries up to reality, has made it possible to profit in play using automation. It's the key ingredient.


Existing members will know exactly what I am referring to regarding the lapsed bets and losing bets from our initial release, as the balance was just not there.


Now with the ten bet spread, the value bet down criteria, and filtering set to match each selection virtually all the time, we have seen the software mirror the testing during live betting.


Matching the horses at a level that cancels out the fact we will have lapsed bets with the smarter distribution, with a targeted approach only getting involved when the money is heading in the right direction.


I'll wrap up this post today with a look at the profit & loss & drawdown graph across the betting timeline, detailed overview stats, bet settings, and what is required from members.


Profit, Loss & Drawdown Graph


The graph below shows 537 bets attempted, with 11 failing to be matched due to odds filters in place.


The number of bets matched is allowing for partial matching across each and every matched bet, with a total of 526 bets completed across a 22 month period.


This makes it possible to reach target profit approximately every three months. Which is of course an average, and some periods will reach target profit faster, possibly within a month or two, with other periods taking longer over several months to complete a cycle.


As an average though, and as you can see from the graph below, the line is mostly progressive and steady, so the periods whereby it will take longer do not look volatile, but instead show as relatively stable.


For any betting strategy that is only taking part of the available profits due to the liquidity or negative odds movements, while also still taking a full point loss on every losing bet, this a notable achievement.


There will be improvements to come of course as we look to hit target profit faster and more efficiently, but this will come on the back of seeing this release version in operation for at least a full betting cycle to hit target profit.


To recap, the line of growth factors in partial matching for each bet, and full loss of one point per bet on losing selections, and also bets using a fixed liability of one point per for each bet. The graph below shows the profit and loss running the bet settings In Play Bet Club explained above across a 22 month period.


The profit line represents £8556 using a £100 fixed liability per bet as your one point value, meaning the total points accrued over time came to +85.56.


The drawdown is interesting to see over time, and as you can see shows -£400, ie -4 points max drawdown level using £100 per fixed liability bet at its highest point.


It provides valuable information for how much money to invest, and gives a very accurate example of what happened across the timeline when the lay bets were losing the most.


Considering this is fully automated, matching only partial amounts per bet on the wins, and accounting for full losses on the losing bets, while betting fixed liability, I am happy with the settings programmed to the bot at this moment, and the number of bets required is a comfortable amount.


We can see clearly there were periods when the balance has not progressed much over an extended period, but then followed by consistent upward growth for long periods.


This is very good, and this would have given us a truly exciting period of consistent target profit cycle after cycle, but I would like to reduce the periods when we would not be hitting target with a series of winning and losing bets keeping us at evens. As these periods can be frustrating for members, albeit the line is still increasing, and over the longer term the profits are there to see.


However, I satisfied to be averaging target profit roughly every three months, and with such a low drawdown at just -4 points for the period of 22 months betting, it gives me a lot of confidence to invest my money and let the software bet on my behalf.


This is a good starting point for In Play Bet Club Automation in my opinion.


in play betting

Detailed Overview 22 Betting Months


+85.56 points profit

537 bets

11 failed bets

526 actual bets

467 wins

58 losses

= 88.95% Strike Rate

16% ROI

Max Drawdown -4 points

7.15 Bet Cycles

Average 3.90 points profit PCM

Projected 11.70 points per quarter


The results above are recorded factoring in a 2% commission deduction.


Bet Settings


In order to be able to have the bets sent to Betfair actually matched at the levels shown in the results above, while split across ten bets, and only betting with the flow of money down, we had to dig into the selection criteria to make it work.


I'll go into these selection processes in detail within the In Play Betting Guide. That will follow over the coming months. To give members an idea of how this now compares and breaks down to what we had before, here is a brief account of how the bot now functions to reach the performance levels shown here today.


Pay no attention to the setting names, they are simply for our programming purposes. The stats below cover the contribution from the 22 months covered in the stats and graph above.


Settings


RLC4

Minimum lay odds 1.2

Points 33

Bet Volume 80

Average odds 1.60

Strike rate 65%

Drawdown -3


C1V2

Minimum lay odds 2

Points 11

Bet Volume 34

Average odds 2.62

Strike rate 94%

Drawdown -1


C2

Minimum lay odds 2.2

Points 11

Bet Volume 32

Average odds 3.75

Strike rate 93.75%

Drawdown -1


C5

Minimum lay odds 6

Points 13

Bet Volume 188

Average odds 7.54

Strike rate 92%

Drawdown -1.5

RLC6

Minimum lay odds 3

Points 17.56

Bet Volume 146

Average odds 4.73

Strike rate 93%

Drawdown -1


I will elaborate on these strategies in detail within the In Play Bet Guide, with an ETA for this to be confirmed, but I predict over the coming few months now the automation is about to start which frees up my schedule.


Required from Members


As a member of In Play Bet Club the main responsibility you have is to ensure you have the funds available to cover the stake set within your bot, and to let the software manage this for you.


I would recommend a minimum of twelve points, but that is a minimum, and a comfortable amount I would suggest somewhere double this figure. Betting comfortably is often the battle won before it is fought.


Given you now have the ability to make your target profit using any stake amount, give it some serious thought before we get started again on Thursday. You don't need to go all in to hit your required target financial amount.


Make sure you're betting with an amount you are comfortable with, and know that you can afford to invest.


If you look at the drawdown shown above for the 22 months period, the maximum it reaches is -4 points, which if betting using a £100 fixed liability is obviously £400.


This in the grand scheme of things is not a high drawdown, in fact it's very low.

However, consider the fact that we could commence betting and hit this level of drawdown immediately. It could be higher, as I have previously stated 12 points should be the minimum invested amount, and it is your responsibility to keep your account funded to be able to place the bets.


The question to ask yourself is, what would you do if we hit a four, five, or six point drawdown quite early on.


Taking into account the published results for the settings show very high strike rates, but also inevitable losses, like any investment you could commence betting during a dip, so what is your plan if this happens.


My plan is always the same, put in what I can afford, allot the points required, and let it run. With the plan b to top up the funds if required.

I have done the research and work with Nigel to make the settings select the horses to lay in running, the software is now ready to place the bets, and I want to make the long term profit from this service, but I know with betting and any form of investing, things never always go our way.

However, I am also long in the tooth and seen a lot more than most in this niche field of automated betting, and know that each losing period behind a well drilled strategy is almost always followed by a long win run, and the published results for In Play Bet Club here today show this.


In fact, these are possibly the most consistent results I have ever published over such a long period of time, with the least amount of drama at just -4 DD.


This gives me the confidence to put money into my own strategies, and allow others to follow them, but for me and the members who know that betting systems have drawdown that can occur at any moment, we are set up for this, and prepared.


I'm simply highlighting this now so I don't have to later, as I want everyone to succeed and do well, and be in the right mindset before we commence betting.


I will expect these settings to have winning and losing weeks and months, but as the results show, we should be steadily pushing ahead at an average close to 12 points per quarter.


That's a decent amount of profit each year, and if the drawdown level continues to sit around -4, you should never need to top up your bank.


Please do give the In Play Bet Club rules and what to expect a re read if you haven't in a while, it's important to have everything in place before we get started.



I won't be emailing every day or even week when we start betting.


I'll of course update members with news when needed, but my main contact with you regarding IPBC will be to let you know we are reaching your target profit, and to give you the option to renew your membership.

As everyone will be hitting different numbers, and individually reaching target at different points, this is how it should be, as I will have a lot to manage with that alone keeping track. As that aspect is not automated as yet.


I am pretty sure that's what you want as well. You just want to set up your bot, let it make you money, and when you are at target profit, a reminder from me to let you know.


Anything in between will just be regarding improvements, and any essential software updates.


As stated above, you will hear from me again on Wednesday evening to remind you we get going from Thursday.


I have already adjusted individual member accounts as agreed, so if something is not completed when you check before we start, please do let me know.


I hope you found today's update useful, thanks for reading.


Thank you

Ryan


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