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Exponential Bet News 25/2/20

It's been nearly two months since my previous news post on the 28th December, and for good reason.

I've never had such a break from blogging since launching the website. Within my previous post I did go into detail about the work being done to introduce significant updates for all services, which are either now up and running, or scheduled for early March to complete the line up.

This should I hope give you some idea what I've been up to, but I will explain exactly why I've been so quiet as I've a lot I want to share on this.

Let me first start by covering recent news over a series of updates, as there is simply too much for one blog post.

Remote Dutch Betting has been renamed as Remote Daily Betting, and re engineered as a lay betting service to replace the original backing method of Dutch betting.

With a lay bet we're still covering the field like a Dutch, and with a profit on the horses I want to include in the win side of the bet, but it's just one lay bet instead of several back bets, which is a far better way of doing it.

This has been on the cards for many months as a solution to even out the Dutch bets, ie equal profit across each selected horse, but adding this change to the service has given it so much more than initially expected from when we began working on a solution.

We do get there in the end with these things, it just takes a bit of time and development sometimes. It is better to be actively trying to get things right and moving forward making progress, as opposed to forever ruminating without action. I've a lot more to write about this subject, but will save it for another post.

Getting back to why we switched from backing as a Dutch to lay betting, as setting it up this way does cure the issue of uneven Dutch bets, which was a constant hassle when using the traditional backing style.

It affects us more than if you're placing a backing Dutch yourself directly, as we need to place hundreds of members bets at once, and in some races there are many horses to cover all live to the exchange.

If you try and imagine the amount of money this gets sucked up in the live market when the bets go on, and the impact it had on the odds combined with the other activity in each race from people generally betting and trading as normal, it proved to be a nightmare placing the Dutch bets this way.

It can be an issue if you're just doing this yourself using Betfair, as the time the bets are placed to the time it takes to be matched can cause either unmatched bets, or bets placed at lower or higher odds than calculated, resulting in an uneven Dutch bet.

As an example, if some horses steam or drift from the moment the bet is placed, the stake you've set per horse is confirmed as you want that even return on the Dutch, but it's based on the odds at the time it was actually placed, so you end up with the scenario explained above.

I've had this when using Fairbot on my local PC to place a Dutch, so for huge volumes of bets going on at once it was not practical. We tried it, established we needed a better way of achieving this, and now have laying in place with fixed liability betting.

Placing a fixed liability lay bet on the excluded horse solves this issue, as your stake, if set to BSP is fixed, if set to exchange it can vary slightly for obvious reasons, but we operate a max odds drift setting to protect huge drifts. I will deconstruct the RDB service in a lot more detail over the coming weeks.

The point I'm making here regarding the switch to lay betting, is that laying to a fixed liability instead of backing multiple selections to get the coverage on the bet I require, now gives an equal profit across all remaining selections.

Which in turn solves the uneven Dutch problem, gives us more control of the min ROI requirement, speeds up the entire cloud betting platform as it dramatically reduces the workload, and returns winning bets at higher than previously recorded percentages.

This strategy change from a backing Dutch system to lay betting has given the service a positive overhaul, which you can view in the results published via the link at the base of this post.

Additionally, the service has gone from low betting volumes to higher volume, with some days showing eighteen lay bets, which is a significant increase from the previous strategy which would not show this volume over an entire month.

Some days are definitely busier than others of course, as races need to qualify in order to become a bet. Today being a good example of this, with just one winning bet.

However we do have bets virtually every day, all bar when meetings are abandoned and the racing doesn't meet min spec. Which means you're looking at about six days a week of betting on average over a year.

The most important aspect of the RDB face lift is the steady profit build it's shown for RDB Dutch, which is the primary betting system for Remote Daily Betting.

The ability to recover losing days very quickly, and then push on to a new profit has been impressive to witness since going live.

The predicted annual points balance growth for RDB Dutch of +200 points I think is achievable, as the busier weeks will return a few points profit per day and make up for slower or losing days.

As an example, RDB Dutch has a strike rate at the moment at 87.56%, with an average lay odds at 7.66 BSP, giving you around 15% ROI on each winning lay bet.

The new selection filter for RDB only began publishing live results from the 12/1/20 to members, this is when I switched to lay betting officially. However, I've been working on this for the past few months prior to this live betting, as I knew a change needed to be introduced, and will shortly have the backdated, not back fitted, results from this test period available to download.

My primary focus has been on introducing this replacement for RDB to begin enjoying the profit obviously with members, and the improved betting system which is much more enjoyable to run. Now things are settling down after quite an intense period of work, I'll begin adding some additional data.

We originally targeted a 10% ROI with the back Dutching approach, and often due to the reasons explained above would fall below this for some members, for example if you're one of the members when the bets were fired as explained above, who got on the tail end of a steaming horse that went on to win, you would sometimes win the bet, but not see much profit.

However, now the new selection method is in place if selecting BSP your odds on each bet will be exactly the same as every other member, and so will your run of betting, profit growth, strike rate etc.

If you select exchange as your betting method, which is an option more so for members betting with lower stakes, your profit growth will vary member to member, but the bets will be exactly the same as BSP opting members.

This I hope explains why I dropped the 'Dutch' from the name and changed it to Remote Daily Betting, while keeping the RDB abbreviation as this is consistent throughout the vast amount of online content, updates, and news posts.

You still have an optional back betting system included, RDB Straight, which for me has always been a luxury item with a strike rate at 21%, and average odds of 6.88.

RDB Straight has bags of potential to return over +500 points annually, but you need deep pockets to manage the bank roll over this period, as it's a volatile betting system which we've made clear from the offset.

The drawdown for this system can be too much for some people to accept, and I completely understand this, as I cover it in the set up info, and on the actual RDB page. I do also offer some suggestions on how to split stakes if deciding to run both RDB options together.

The JV MK2 Betting System which I'll cover in tomorrow's post has a strike rate of 38%, and average odds on the winning back bet of 3.31 BSP, which gives you an edge in the market.

In comparison to RDB Straight these two are easier to manage with less stressful drawdown periods, and as such the bank roll allotment I'd recommend splitting reflects this.

Also, taking in to account these are fully automated betting systems, which requires a completely different mindset and thought process compared to being hands on placing the bets yourself.

When you choose to run your bets automated it obviously has the benefit of not requiring your daily input, or being at the computer all day long, but it comes with the caveat of handing over control to an automated betting system that has no emotion, and is purely data driven.

Automated vs manual betting is a blog post in itself I've already written, and will publish later this week. As it's a complicated subject, and something I've more experience than most to share.

Staking is 100% in your control of course when operating RDB or JV MK2, and I can only suggest how to divide your betting investment from my experience, and knowing how the majority of members approach betting.

I do have a variety of members however, some who like to grow a small amount over time and are more actively involved, and others who are big hitters who just set and forget that I rarely hear from.

I don't give financial advice, but I can offer my opinions on how to set up your balance if you need it.

I used to take a big step back from this when I first began running these automated systems, but as long as you know this isn't me advising you how to invest your pension, and it's just me helping you set up a betting bank, we're all good.

Results for all betting and trading systems are now updated on site weekly, typically Tuesday or Wednesday.

As mentioned I kept the RDB as the abbreviation is deeply planted throughout the site, and as such you can see the URL even has /dutch-betting, but I think I've got my message across clearly on site and within this blog post, it is a lay betting service now. Which to be fair, is a lot like Dutching anyway.

Tomorrow I'll cover the JV MK2 Betting System, and explain how this has now been developed to return a predicted annual ROI of +300 points.

I've more to come this week on the Trading Service being set to run using Hedger Pro from early March, and as explained at the start I'll let you know why I've been so quiet on the blogging front recently, as this is a post in itself.

Thank you


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