Thank you for the great response to last weeks news post, which genuinely surprised me as it was mostly me sounding off about staking, money management, and the betting mindset.
I wrote about the importance of setting up your betting bank properly from the start, and letting it run without dipping in and out, dabbling, tweaking, and generally messing around with the process, as that will never work out well over the long term.
I shared examples of how things can run over time with these betting strategies, and tried to drive the point home on how important it is to succeed long term, and to achieve the same reported results as myself.
This means not to tinkering with your betting strategies and having staking set according to my recommended points allocations.
The post last week opened the flood gates for members to get in touch and ask me to check their set up.
If you want to read last weeks blog you can find it here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/expo-news-4th-october
I'd say 90% of the accounts I checked were all good, the bets matched my own albeit the odd one or two that had been affected by a Betfair outage, or lapsed unmatched bet, but that is the caveat of exchange betting.
Generally though all as expected for everyone following the strategies, with some adjustments to include new bet options and broaden the investment fund.
I'm happy to do this for any member, and will provide more content to make it clearer to set up properly from the start very soon. This is a matter of priority for me.
Here is a message I received from a member named Ram last week. It sums up exactly what I was ranting about in my previous news post,
'Just logged onto my account to see how multi-lay is performing. All tracking as per your predictions. Negative movement for 3-4 days, then equalize, and profit by +10 points. All across 10 days. Relating your informed rant, if somebody joins at the wrong end of a curve, experiences downward swing and panics, cancels and moves on, they miss out on moving from red to black. Shame really, as the law of big numbers needs time to work through'.
This is a great example, and the screenshot above gives a clear demonstration of how a bet period can look like using Place Lay Multi with the Exchange Straight option selected.
The results for Place Lay Multi both bet type options for last week are available below, and include a sneak peak at the code that goes into making the selections behind the scenes. You can see this in the centre column.
You may notice over the potential seven days betting we had six that qualified, as it's a very selective strategy and there won't be bets every day.
When looking at the bets shown in the centre column and the amount of races missed that do not hit the criteria programmed in to the software, it's also apparent we do not have bets every race, they have to meet criteria.
From the six days betting we had five winning days and one losing day for Exchange Straight, which is shown in the graph below, and in Ram's numbers above on the 7th October.
Place Lay Multi - Exchange Straight 4th to 10th October
I've expanded the same two races in each bet type option, ie the screenshot above and below, to show the horses selected that were layed, and you can also see the profit and loss next to the OK column on the right. Anything with OK signifies if the race met qualifying criteria, and you can see the profit or loss for that race.
For all qualifying bets placed with Exchange Straight option over the week the potential return at MTP (minutes to post) betting was +26.83 points profit over this period.
MTP is the only calculation that matters here as we cannot bet BSP using Exchange Straight due to Betfair rules.
18 winning races and 4 losing races with a total of 71 actual bets placed.
We didn't have it all our own way, but overall a good profit just a -2.81 Point Drawdown.
Place Lay Multi - Exchange (MTP) & BSP (Liability) 4th to 10th October
You can see from the image above showing the different bet option using Exchange (MTP) and BSP (Liability) for Place Lay Multi, this means both BSP and MTP are relevant as they are available to select within the bot.
BSP specifically means that if selected members results should mirror this exactly, as the bets are all placed at Betfair Starting Price.
If you look again though there is a difference in the winning and losing volumes.
Which of course is due to the fact these bets are being placed using a set liability amount, so the profit and loss will be different.
This means the profitability on a race that is bet using liability may not be as high as exchange straight, and this is visible with the overall returns, but they both have pros and cons.
There are factors to consider for each member style of betting. I have covered this at length in previous news updates.
The bet volume is exactly the same as Exchange Straight when it comes to number of qualifying races, total bets placed etc, but we had 14 wins and 7 losing races in comparison to the 18 wins and 4 losses above, but while still maintaining the same number of win and losing days.
The numbers will nearly always differ for these two betting options, and the one missing win or loss was just a complete break even for the liability option.
It is interesting though to compare and assess the different bet options and how they perform side by side.
When I begin adding more video content I'll include more of the actual race by race analysis shown in the centre column, and explore the betting time line in further detail.
If you would like more information on the Place Betting service that includes Place Lay Multi you can find it here along with subscription options: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/place-betting
What I would also say though when examining some members results is that I came across a selection of gung-ho staking plans. I actually take a lot of the blame for this.
I found staking that was way above where it should be compared to the monetary amount available, and no adherence to any points allocations I have made in place.
These were then reset to operate within the advised points set up, and I explained to the members who asked me to check their account why the balances were not matching or balanced correctly.
If you're wondering about your set up just get in touch and let me make sure you're equipped to bet long term following these strategies.
It brought it home that I can't delay any longer adding a Video FAQ.
I'm still not in my new office, but I've a laptop set up and a new headset with decent mic for me to record the content I need.
I'll get to work on this over the course of this week, and next week I'll have added more guidance to the site making it front and centre on each strategy page, and obvious where to navigate to see this.
Plus I'll add it to the start up Getting Started PDF to ensure every new member sees this before activating their betting bot.
I take full responsibility for not doing enough previously to ensure members had more set up info. I gave just enough for those with some basic tech knowledge, but I understand now more than ever, and after seeing how some members have their banks set up, the importance of going the extra mile to try to eliminate any potential grey area is vital for every members success.
From sign up to set up things need to be clearer, so this will be addressed and ironed out of the equation fully over the coming couple of weeks.
The In Play Bet Club will be off and running either by the end of this month or early next, but this now depends largely on Nigel and not the new office set up.
There is some technical work to be done to make sure it is all future proofed, as the actual mechanics of the new service work fine.
It is important work that needs to be in place ahead of starting such a huge project.
One thing I can tell you though is that the In Play Bet Club will place both back and lay bets for members, but the lay bets will always be fixed liability and not exchange straight, ie fixed stake.
The reason for this is to control the level of liability on the bets.
If someone got on the wrong end of a drift that lost it could be disastrous, but with fixed liability the profit and loss will obviously differ from member to member, but as shown above the wins and losses will be exactly the same, as well as the overall liabilities on each lay bet.
Backing it won't make any difference of course and each member will have full control of their staking within Cloud Bet Bot.
If you're interested in joining the In Play Bet Club and receiving an invite please write to me at ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk with In Play Cloud Betting in the subject line, and I'll add you to the invite list.
Places will be limited to first come first service, so make sure to get your name on the list now if you do like the sound of me placing live in running bets for you.
I'll have some results, predictions, rules, what to expect etc added to the site this month for the in play club.
The results for last weeks betting is updated for all services at Exponential Bet. You can view the results from the Betting Strategies option via the main menu, and simply choose the service you wish to examine.
That's it from me this week, thanks for reading. I'll be back next week with another news post and to bring this weeks betting up to date.
Best Regards
Ryan