I mentioned yesterday we've new automated strategies about to become available, and I couldn't wait to share examples of what to expect.
All active subscribed members will have these included free of charge for a long trial period, and for new members they can subscribe directly or as part of the One Subscription plans, available via the Join Page.
The new automated strategies are looking exciting without needing any hype behind them, and also running without any problems matching the bets, as they are set to select and place well ahead of race start time.
Here's a sample of what I have so far:
What I'm showing you here is a Fixed Stake lay betting strategy that will be online near the end of next week.
Results are from live betting starting on 1/6/20 to the time I started writing this blog, which you can see from the screenshot.
I've opened up a couple of today's bets in the Researcher grid to show some race data.
The pink line across horse numbers 5 & 7 in the 16:25 & 16:50 races, are the horses selected by the strategy to lay bet (back to lose), and you can see the 'L' to the right, meaning this horse lost the race making it a winning bet.
The profit is 1 point per bet, but the risk with fixed stake lay betting can mean most of your losses will be more than 1 point.
You can also see the line of 0.98's in the grid, showing a 1 point win for each race, minus 2% Betfair commission bring the 1 to 0.98. I'd advise if you haven't already, visit the Betfair site and reduce your commission to 2%.
The running total down the middle section shows a balance starting from 0 reaching +184.05 points over a three month betting period.
We have a total max drawdown of -30.96 for this period of betting, which for fixed stake lay betting is actually very good, and it should be noted only across a three day betting week.
This reduction in bet days removing the consistently negative days in the week, significantly reduces our overall risk and bet exposure.
The stats look very strong for this strategy using a Fixed Stake, and from the bets placed so far since racing restart in June, you can see from the graph there have only been four moments of significant losses.
I'll continue working on this and aim to reduce the losses even more, but I also do not want to dilute the very appealing earning potential average of 61 points a month. Albeit not a constant monthly growth rate that I'll demonstrate below.
The balance growth is fairly steady to be fair, even taking into account jittery June, which was a shit storm for anyone trying to find a consistent winner to back, or regular loser to lay.
However, this strategy managed to go through June and come out with a profit for both types of betting, fixed liability, and fixed stake shown in these examples.
In this screenshot below I wanted to show some of the losses, and how they affect the balance / running total, which you can see from the three month graph above mainly occurred in June at the start of betting.
The 13:40 race at the top middle with the number 6 horse winning at odds of 4.40, this gave us a -3.4 points loss on the bet, as the horse won and we're backing to lose at fixed stake with this system.
If you look down at the 15:25 race you will see the number 6 horse again won the race, and incurred a -5.4 points loss.
Overall the early running total in the month up to this point is still positive, and you can see a healthy run of win bets to combat the losses.
The drawdown for June however would have made it a challenging month for some, reaching a max -30.96 points.
Overall profit of 20.07 points from start to end shows the real potential of this system, that's if you're prepared for some resistance during the betting process, with the reward being +184.05 points profit at time of writing.
The graph is a lot more jumpy and mainly in the negative for most of June, but more win days than losing days, and the worst losing run at 3 in a row, compared to 16 consecutive winning bets.
A good example of being set up to weather the storms, and also good money management, because had this hit a lower drawdown in June of let's say 75%, by this point now in September would have been recovered with over a 100 points profit on top.
Even if the bank had been tanked completely in June, 100 point drawdown and gone, one month does not define a betting strategy, and this does not mean there is not money in it to win over the longer term.
The returns on this strategy prove this to be the case in this tiny example, as you would still be over 80 points to the good if reinvesting another bank and continuing to follow the betting process up to this point.
Granted you would need to have set up back up points balances, which I do advise anyway, and I say this again and again, but it's often advice not followed, with members reaching despair after a bad month or more. I start sounding like a broken record, but I know as the years progress I'll have to repeat this less.
Sometimes a strategy will run for a year and only middle along, then maybe even tank the bank, but the second, third, or fourth year may sky rocket your balance. Especially if the service providers are determined to keep pushing for the right result, if you get my meaning.
It's that old saying, when you quit you may be just three feet away from finding gold.
This type of Fixed Stake betting is not for everyone though, and I will show you a more cautious Fixed Liability version using the exact same system shortly, identical bets, but using a set max stake per bet, but before I do let's look at July and August using the Fixed Stake approach.
You can see the difference in comparison to June, which was almost like a football team playing badly but still getting the right result, given June returned +20.07 points in the end after a slow negative start.
People think one bad month is not recoverable, or it's literally the end of the world, the wheels have fallen off the wagon, etc etc, this is a good example of that not being the case.
July returned 60.21 points, and August 91.70 points, both with a much smoother line of growth, but still with some losing bets and runs in there which I've shown in the race examples opened in the grid.
Let's just take a quick look at the Fixed Liability version of the exact same strategy, a more cautious steady style in comparison.
This will be included within the member services giving you more control over how you bet with these automated systems, and something I've wanted to add for a long time, more options to be gung-ho if that's your style, or for those that want to be safer and steadier this option will be there.
What you have above is the Fixed Liability version, which as you can see returned 30.56 points at the time of writing, and with just -7.56 points drawdown over the approx 3 month betting period.
The same pattern is visible in the graph, with June being a losing month to begin and taking time to recover.
However, if you're operating a 100 point balance and in comparison to Fixed Stake betting, the losses in June would not have raised an eye brow, given the huge difference in drawdown percentages.
If you're more comfortable with less risky strategies that will take longer to absorb dips, but not put see as the huge up and down swings you get with fixed stake, then fixed liability betting is more your style.
The stake you set is what you bet with exactly as your maximum risk per bet, but this means you make less on the higher odds horses, and make more the lower the odds get.
An example of this is in the 14:40 race shown, with the number 8 horse Law of One being the fixed liability lay bet, but losing the race meaning the bet won.
The BSP odds at below evens, so we actually made more than a point profit on this at +1.03.
If you look down to the 16:25 race you can see the same horse shown in the first screenshot above, San Agustin that was a winning bet as it lost the race finishing 4th, but returned +0.48 points profit at fixed liability, compared to +0.98 at fixed stake.
The benefit is obvious as you will see in the 15:40 race that went against us, the number 1 horse won was a losing bet, but we lost just 1 point, which is the max loss per bet.
Compared to Fixed Stake that lost -5.15 points on the same bet (as shown below), given the stake was set at 1 point and the BSP odds were 6.15.
Which to be fair you can see the odds at time of selection on the exchange, to actually returning at BSP, inflated on this horse a lot from 3.65 to 6.15. A nice trade if you had a crystal ball!
There are obvious pro's and con's with Fixed Stake vs Fixed Liability, and you will be able to decide which suits you better for these new systems, and for the currently active automated services which will have safer and more aggressive options available next week.
Bear in mind this is just one of the strategies I'm showing that we're making available for existing subscribed members to try free of charge, and new members to access directly.
Not all will be available next week, but this is one of the flagship strategies I'll make sure is there to access in the first run out of new services.
I'll spend time next week publishing details on site about each new strategy, and how to get started.
I'll definitely make sure all active subscribed members have access to these services, and will confirm this by email.
More to follow on these systems, and also the upgrades to the current services coming next week.
If you're interested in accessing this lay betting system, and want to be on the early access lower subscription rate, send me an email to: ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk
Simply put in the subject line, 'Lay Betting System', and I'll make sure you're contacted with a special introductory deal to get started.
The one thing I missed from yesterday's news post was Trading, and although I covered this in the previous blog I just wanted to confirm my schedule adjustment.
As I'm about to go into hospital this week and will need a bit of time to recover, I'm shifting some work to time periods that will suit that type of activity.
Trading requires a specific mindset and space, and as long as I have these new services in my head to get out there and running, I won't be able to concentrate on trading.
Additionally, the first job with trading is to finish the guide update, so this requires some narration and video editing, which I have no idea what my health will be like initially in September after this procedure, as there are no guarantee's with what I'm having, so I'll literally be playing it by ear.
I know that given this is the second time I'm had it I'll be able to finish the new services, and make sure the existing automated services are updated, but I've no idea if I'll be up to finishing the guide and recommencing trading until I've had time to assess how it's all gone.
Sorry to be cryptic sounding, but I don't want to go in to details about everything for obvious reason, but to be upfront I'll just need to assess it day by day in September regarding trading, but feel confident at this moment I'll be able to get the guide finished and available by the end of the month.
I won't be online as much over the coming days, and have limited access to reply as I'll need a rest, and get a bollocking if I start edging toward the office too soon.
If you write to me please bear with me replying, and I've put an auto reply to that effect.
Okay, that's me for today and for a while.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan
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