Before I get to how we're doing with Exponential Bet and it's four automated betting strategies, I just want to share some news regarding In Play Bet Club.
Late this month I am aiming to publish a new website for this service, which will have updated results each month, and include access to recommended daily in play bets which I am hoping to have either emailed to you, or included within Hedger Pro, possibly both options.
Hedger Pro is free to use with all features available, it's only when you start needing to add more systems of your own to research and implement, then a subscription is required to open up these extra features.
However, for just one system in operation, and full access to everything else, it is 100% free at the moment.
I am working with Nigel on Hedger Pro, helping integrate new features to make it a more usable tool for system generation.
At the moment Hedger Pro is exceptional for sourcing data, it's has horse racing data included that is exclusive to the platform.
The transition from having all the data in the world, and a profitable betting system that you can use daily is what I'm helping with.
I will publish real world examples of how to use it to find your own systems that make money, and of course include systems I've created myself for anyone wanting to subscribe to Hedger Pro and use multiple systems throughout the day.
Now, as for In Play Bet Club, I do have strategies created which are waiting to be applied and rinsed through the latest Hedger Pro update that is coming soon. Which is why I haven't released them yet.
These are strategies I've been working on for months, and will be available as an optional extra on the In Play Bet Club website.
I've held off releasing anything until the extra features are readily available within Hedger Pro, because of what I have been discussing with Nigel, as Hedger Pro will add so much more value to them, and can be pre programmed into the platform for members of In Play Bet Club who want a more manual and active approach, so can utilize each day across the race card.
These can also be set and forget type bets, which is another key feature I know is important to a lot of members.
The In Play Bet Club website will as mentioned house the results for the service, and for the strategies running through Hedger Pro.
The current strategies in operation for In Play Bet Club require a refresh, and more direction, which I think is an honest assessment.
On the 17th November 2023 I updated the filters for In Play Bet Club option 1, which is set up to bet only using fixed liability. I am very happy with this update.
This has quite steadily made +25.19 points profit if betting MTP, and +24.74 points if opting for the guaranteed odds of BSP, but using fixed liability with a very low drawdown.
The target profit for In Play Bet Club is +12 points per round, as it's not a subscription service, although I did increase this for the first group of members, but you can see that over approximately six and a half months we hit target profit of 12 points twice betting using a fixed liability stake, and even with BSP selected it maintained the same level of success.
In Play Bet Club Option 1 - Fixed Liability - 17/11/23 to 30/6/24
From the 15th May 2024 I switched In Play Bet Club 2 which uses fixed stake and fixed liability, on to the same settings. Here are the results.
In Play Bet Club 2 Fixed Stake - 15th May to 30th June 2024
Obviously, betting fixed stake means you can't bet using BSP, so there are no BSP numbers for this option, and there will also be variance in what you return compared to what somebody else returns, as betting is direct to the exchange.
That said, using two different Betfair accounts and two different stake amounts, I achieved on one +22 points, and on another +29 points using this set up across the same timeline.
In Play Bet Club 2 Fixed Liability - 15th May to 30th June 2024
The results above show fixed liability betting, and these came out identical for me of course using BSP, with some minor variance using MTP.
This set up works well for both options, and I can't see any point having two fixed liability options anymore for In Play Bet Club.
However, I will leave everything as it is for now until the new site is ready.
I'll be contacting all In Play Bet Club members directly at that stage, and making some quality of life changes to simplify everything, as well as including everything listed above.
Here is a look at the results betting fixed stake from the 17th November to 30th June, and this is wasn't available, so this is just a demonstration of what is possible with this particular selection filter for In Play Bet Club.
Quite exciting to see this level of profit growth available for In Play Bet Club Fixed Stake betting, and something I am sure the members will be pleased to see.
As mentioned, this filter set up is in operation right now for In Play Bet Club, across all betting options.
In Play Bet Club Option 2 - Fixed Stake - 17/11/23 to 30/6/24 - Demonstration Purposes Only
In other news....
The results available to view within the software at this moment only date back to the 25th March 2024. Which is because Nigel ran a system wide update to improve functionality, which it did, but as a result of this most of the results back up was lost, well, to a degree.
We now have results from the end of March showing in the software, but Nigel is about to run a system wide rescale to bring the results back to December 2023.
This we are sorry to say this looks like it's the furthest we can go back, so when this is implemented any results prior to that date, they will only be available within your own Betfair accounts.
The big ginger man (Nigel) has learned from this mistake, so it will never happen again going forward, but this is the situation we're in right now regarding the missing result data, and we both cannot apologize enough for any inconvenience caused due to this issue.
The service that is primarily affected by this, given it is target driven to operate it's membership cycles based on points profit, is In Play Bet Club.
With the results being shown in your software back to December, you will at least be able to see how things have gone for you since that date, with the In Play Bet Club 1 service virtually mirroring what has been shown above.
My solution to this issue for members of not knowing exactly where they were from June to December with results, is to set a fair level of points needed across the board. Which I have yet to decide based on investigation needed, as I do have email correspondence from members up to that date, so I can set a very fair level of points required, and like an honesty box principle, set this to be reached for every member, including the points made so far that have been recorded and will show within your results once re uploaded.
I'll have more on this to follow ahead of the new IPBC website launch.
For all other members, we are very sorry for the hassle with the result drop, but having your membership subscription based, and seeing the results back from December, this will obviously help a lot. It's not perfect, but at least it's more, with another three months on what we have now.
All this does emphasize the importance of regular CSV downloads from the bets placed section within the software, and to keep your own records. Which are always good to have an offline sheet showing your P&L. However, I do not predict we will ever be in this situation again.
Regarding the result summary, I'll keep this brief.
The past twelve months for Exponential Bet services has been disappointing. I have my points tally over a rolling twelve months at about even. There have been some exceptional moments, but across the board, all services have lacked consistent growth.
The basic core goals for each systems and structure I believe is built upon a firm foundation, but the selection process filters themselves are just missing the mark.
There really hasn't been much updating done, and the annual clean up was just a minor one this year, as I believe they all need to be reset back to ground zero, to their foundations, and then built back up using a different approach.
That's about as honest as I can be about the Exponential Bet services right now, and this is coming off the back of a profitable month, and watching the clean up changes I have made stabilize the systems, and push them the right way, but nowhere near the level I expect, to make them exciting investment propositions for you.
The four in operation all have the potential to build on the profits accumulated so far, and be consistently profitable for years to come. Showing a healthy line of growth, within a contained level of drawdown that we can accept.
I'd say that is where we are at right now with DD, as the drawdown is being contained within acceptable levels for all of them, and this has been the case since the recent updates, but what is the point of betting to just not lose your shirt and be in the game, as we want to risk a little over time, and expect losing periods that we accept will drop to levels we project, but over this period of time see a decent return on our investment year after year.
The work I'm doing on Hedger Pro at the moment is helping me with the refresh for Exponential Bet services, as the research tool is incorporating features I use for all my automated betting, but with the vast amount of extra data available within Hedger Pro, this can only benefit Exponential Bet, and revive all the services that are currently treading water.
Here is my advice for you if you're an Exponential Bet member.
The current set up looks robust enough to stay well within expected drawdown levels, so I would not worry about a potential nose dive with any service. In addition to this, each service is set up with the potential to have exceptional winning periods, so you will see this across the betting timeline, and like last month we will see profits gained.
I am close to introducing new features for Exponential Bet services, and giving everything a full refresh as mentioned above, and when I do this, I will be capping membership limits, as with everything when it starts to really show exciting form it will attract a lot of new members, but I do not want this to ruin it for my existing members who deserve a good run of profit.
Hold on to your space if you follow a service right now, if you feel more comfortable reducing your stake until you get the word from me the updates have been added, that would be my advice but I can assure you this is coming, and as mentioned each service will have an upper limit, and then like Portfolio Bet become invite only.
Right, I'll leave it here for today, and will probably not post again until later this month when the Exponential Bet updates are ready, and the In Play Bet Club website is reaching the point of being ready to launch.
I've adopted the policy to only post these blogs when I have important information to relay, to respect your time, and to give me the time to focus solely on the jobs on my to do list.
Any questions, please let me know.
Thanks for reading today, very much appreciated.
Best Regards
Ryan
Comments