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Expo News 8th November

In today's news post:

  • The In Play Bet Club results updated, with membership pricing options, reservation date availability.

  • Weekly Automated Betting System result overview, and service update.


In Play Bet Club


Let's start with the results showing how I've been doing since I began recording the strategy to be applied for members.


26th October to 7th November 2021


in play betting system

The results show 36 bets and 34 winning lays in running.


£463.91 profit betting using a £100 stake liability per bet, and £229.20 betting a £10 fixed stake.


All bets placed follow the exact same selection process, which means if I lose a bet it would still be the same selection if I was to reverse time and play the race again.


This makes it very easy to put it down to bad luck and still continue the days betting if anymore races qualify, and you can see this is the case after both losing bets.


I aim for a max odds of 10 to be matched as I think a 10% profit is acceptable for a fixed liability bet, but this is not my target odds to lay as I am trying to achieve much lower in the race, and you can see in most cases I am getting lower. However, occasionally I'll be caught on a drift from the time the bet is placed which puts my average lay odds presently at 8.


Membership Registration & Price Plans


There is a maximum member limit for the In Play Bet Club of 50 at any given time.


With this in mind we've also had to consider staking limits as well, and how we can control what people set as their bet amounts within the bot.


The solution that Nigel and myself have agreed is the best way to release this service to members is to create a three tier plan.


Each plan option will have a set amount to join, and it will not be a reoccurring subscription each month, quarter, six months, or yearly.


Instead for every membership option there will be a max amount allowed to be staked per bet, with the option to bet lower than this is required, but not higher.


Whatever amount each member decides to stake within the bot is considered a single point, and our pledge to every member is that we will increase your point value by twelve before you need to renew your membership and continue.


As an example, if your stake was £50 liability per bet, we would need to make you £600 profit recorded within the software before your service stops and you need to re-join.


Over a days betting should your points balance hit the 12% increase on your investment should you be operating with a 100 point balance as an example, and the £600 is reached.


Betting will continue for the remainder of the day for you, and you would receive an email notification at the end of betting informing you that your target profit has been achieved.


This could mean you finish on higher than the 12 points, which is just a bonus, and these extra points are not carried to a new membership, and are not deducted from whenever you decide to restart.


You would then need to join again for whichever tier plan suits you in order to continue betting.


A membership period is not a duration of time that is set from the offset, it is however long it takes to hit the required profit for your chosen tier plan.


It could take a couple of weeks or a few months, it just depends on how the betting goes and racing availability, and I will also never rush a bet for the sake of it as I am following a strict well practised selection method.


What you are buying into is the fact I am working for you each qualifying betting day to place the same bets I put on myself through the software, and get you to your target as fast as possible, but only betting on the right options methodically.


The tier set up explained below may be subject to some change between now and launching the service, but I'll be upfront and say not much as this is pretty much set in stone all bar a minor variation. This means I'm now happy to share our pricing with you now and how it will work.


All three tiers pledge to return 12 points profit based on the maximum stake. Which means you could bet below max stake if you wish, and still hit your target profit based on the amount you stake, ie your point value per bet, as it is calculated exactly as a point per bet.


Additionally, it will be completely fair and your winnings will only be based on your own winnings and not rounded up, not mine or anybody else's reported in the results, but your own.


If someone else has been fully matched on a bet and possibly you have been part matched, or your odds matched are higher so your profit is lower, none of this will matter as the bot is set up to see how much money you have in your bet history.


You could be the one who gets matched at the best prices and finish a lot sooner, but either way the calculation to trigger the bot to inform us you have hit your target based on your membership tier is your own, and it's only when that amount has been met your betting will stop at that end of that betting day providing the 12 points are banked.


Tier 1 will have a maximum of £25 stake per bet, and promise to return £300 profit before the membership ends. This will cost £100 membership fee.


Tier 2 will have a maximum of £50 stake per bet, and promise to return £600 profit before the membership ends. This will cost £200 membership fee.


Tier 2 will have a maximum of £100 stake per bet, and promise to return £1200 profit before the membership ends. This will cost £300 membership fee.


As covered above this is not a subscription it is paid as a one off fee, and it will not auto renew. You would be notified once the target figure is met, with all results recorded for you personally within the bot, and then invited to re join the service to continue betting.


There will be a grace period for existing members to allow for the fact people may need a few days to reply and re join, which is there to protect the limited number of places available.


After this period and reasonable effort made to let you know the profit is banked for the service and betting has stopped, if we do not receive a reply after a few days the membership will be offered to the next in line on the waiting list.


I personally think this is the right way to set up this service, as it's my time each betting day that's been paid for to place the bets, and for members you are not paying any more during the betting period until the agreed target profit amount has been met for you.


This is a very cool and fair way to run the service for both parties, as gives members an amount they can expect to bank following the service with nothing else to pay until that tier level is reached.


It is also Betfair Exchange based, which means Betfair will of course love you and you will never be banned, so this service is bullet proof from that perspective.


Additionally, in case you missed it your bets go on via Cloud Bet Bot which you control your staking, and authorise Betfair to place the bets.


The software has been created by Nigel Dove a licensed Betfar developer.


Before I wrap up this subject today, whatever commission you have set depending on your country is also taken into account with the profit calculations.


In the UK you can set it at 2%, but I know in some countries the minimum is 5%, so the bot will factor this in and will still be looking for 12 banked points profit based on whatever commission you are able to set within the software.


Registration


The In Play Bet Club page will have a home at Exponential Bet from the 15th November, and at some point in the future may migrate to its own website, but for the foreseeable future it will be based here.


There will be results updated there weekly, along with full details of the service itself and what is included, what to expect, and what we expect from you to be able to join and become a member.


On the 15th Nov I will send the invitations to everyone who has logged interest in the order they arrived for fairness in blocks of 50, which I will do over a series of days giving everyone 24 hours to take up the registration invite to secure their place.


This is simply register and confirm your place on the service at your chosen tier level.


As soon as the 50 places are taken I'll write to the remaining people on the list to inform them, and manage this list as explained above if somebody decides to not renew at the end of a betting period.


The In Play Bet Club given its very nature of betting has to be an exclusive limited membership, so reserving your place from the 15h November will secure your access when we go live, and any set up questions with staking or the bot can be cleared up ahead of start date.


I've some news regarding the start date in other news coming within an extra news blog post scheduled later this week.


If you have any questions about the In play Bet Club or would like to register your interest if you haven't already done so, just send me an email with Cloud Bet Bot In Play in the subject line to ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk


Automated Betting System Weekly Overview


Service Update:


I have some news for you today regarding the trend update I wrote about last week that will vastly improve long term performance for each strategy, and simplify all the betting options to make sure everyone is running the optimum bet type, with the number of versions reduced to the most effective option.


Last week this kicked in for a handful of strategies, and it's no coincidence they all finished in profit with a significant performance shift overall that was really encouraging.


I'll go over each service in more detail in a separate blog post to demonstrate what's changed with the filters, but the long term data collation within the software and the virtual AI assessment flagged up these changes, and this only occurred by having a long sequence of actual live betting data recorded.


Not back fitting, but real life betting using set templates over a series of eleven months for place betting, and a year a half of data for the rest, which has now been streamlined.


As stated I will go over each service in greater detail, as they will need the bot staking sections adjusting to provide the optimum settings only, but for now the new settings are in operation for Racing Lays, Lay Dutching, Bet Advantage, and Sure Favs High, which all made a profit last week when the upgrade was applied on the 1st November.

Sure Favs Main also made a very good profit last week I have to mention, which had a very nice knock on effect for its Ratchet results.


The selection processes and core strategies will remain the same for all services, but the Researcher AI flagged some filters as profitable in bursts only with occasional spikes in activity, which are also detrimental over the long term slowing profit growth causing resistance.


That's the simple way of putting it until I show you the side by side comparisons in another blog later this week.


The spikes have been smoothed using the history of live betting to reveal a better way of automating these bets, but also to just make everything a lot simpler to follow for members of each strategy.


More to follow on this soon, but I've an example below for Place Lay Multi which from today will be included to the list of services mentioned above, and operate using this smoother approach to betting. I have examples of this side by side below.


None of these services will win all the time and every day, week, or month, but if you look at the long term recorded results for both the standard flat staking methods, the exchange straight, and BSP options that are available to everyone (BSP guarantee exact returns on the bets), all of them show peaks and troughs over time, but the majority also show incredible profit growth.


If you just look at the BSP options alone for the services which as stated means you're getting the same prices and points returned every time, these are very good betting investments taking into account the ups and downs.


With the service update that is gradually being rolled out over the coming couple of weeks, the difference is that growth will be smoother with reduced volatility, which I know for some members they struggle with.


If you look at the stick exchange or crypto, or whatever investment market you decide to examine that is set up as a long term plan, you will always see the same thing with ups and downs, and my betting investments are exactly the same.


In fact the markets I just mentioned are a lot more volatile, and sometimes your money is nowhere near as safe as it is in Betfair, but that's another story.


Some investments made through the traditional methods such as stocks and shares have had poor years but made millions for people who invest with a wider mindset.


We may have a poor series of months or even not make a profit over a year for some services and dip, but as you know and the evidence backs up, this is not how it will necessarily be over the years to come and the following year could be a record breaker.


It is no coincidence the Bet Focus over the period 1/6/20 to 07/11/21 has reached +347.70 points recorded profit using BSP, which is what everyone can return as it's Betfair's Starting Price.


It has touched over 500 points across the timeline betting this way, and will again to go even higher, but the fact its had 8 from 17 winning months shows we won't always have it go our way, and we need to allow for this if following this or any service.


Just as you would with any investment you plan to put your hard earned money into to operate and make you a decent amount of money over time.


347 points profit even allowing for the ups and downs is still incredible, and these things don't happen by accident.


Place Lay Multi using another example over the period 1/12/20 to 07/11/21 has reached +122.92 points profit, with a high just over 150 points across the timeline if betting with BSP selected.


The graph for this service again shows that the running total will move over time and have good and bad periods, but banking a solid 122.92 points so far using a betting method that guarantees exact returns for every member, and in just under a year is impressive, and higher than virtually any other investment market could offer over the same timeline.


There are no broker fees other than Betfair commission, and your money is safe within Betfair under your control, with the only thing required is to set up a staking balance according to advised points levels, and let it run over the ups and downs.


As history shows with these two strategies I'm using as examples, they make money in different ways and have different betting patterns, but overall the profits over the timeline are high reward based.


This comes with a drawdown level I would prefer to be less from an operator point of view, especially for Bet Focus. This strategy will be next in line for the service update to decrease the volatility levels.


Place Lay Multi Liability betting even with the low level of 36.13 DD and a 200 point recommended bank using BSP, this is acceptable with a good strike rate, winning and losing days etc all balance up to provide the evidence the service is operating at a level to produce long term growth.


Place Lay Multi - Lay Liability BSP & MTP - 1/12/20 to 07/11/21


If you look at the current dip in performance it's no worse than what's been before, and a long win run followed shortly afterward, which I predict when this dip has levelled out will happen again.


Place Lay Multi - Exchange Straight - 1/12/20 to 07/11/21


The dip for Exchange Straight betting over the past couple of months has increased the DD figure, but again this will pass and we will push on past our highest recorded point.


Sticking with Place Lay Multi I want to show you the difference between what you're seeing above, and what the Researcher AI software has ironed out of the betting process.


As mentioned this will kick into effect from today, and is exactly the same selection process that's gone before, but without some factors that are unnecessary and proving detrimental to the longer term growth plan.


Place Lay Multi - Exchange Straight - Researcher AI Simulation Live Betting Data - 1/12/20 to 07/11/21


You can see the recent dip in form is still there over the recent couple of months with the updated version, but the line of growth is a lot steadier without the spikes shown in the version we've been using to date.


I'm sorry I can't show the early December to January period in the graph as it cuts off, I'll need to speak to Nige about this to get that fixed, but it was a positive period, and this again is encouraging as we're rapidly approaching the Christmas horse racing season.


You will also see much lower bet volumes but virtually identical strike rates and other metrics showing very similar, but undeniably the DD is better as it's a lot less volatile.


There are points from both models that are both good and bad, but the Researcher AI has stripped away the unnecessary bets that have proved over time to add too much resistance to the overall balance growth.


Place Lay Multi - Liability Betting BSP & MTP - Researcher AI Simulation Live Betting Data - 1/12/20 to 07/11/21

The example above is of course using liability staking not exchange straight, and this allows for BSP that makes it available as an option for all members to achieve the exact same results,


Roughly the same returns at BSP, but the DD is much lower at just 19.60 with a visibly obvious steadier line of growth.


As mentioned I'll include examples of this for all services this week, showing the comparisons after the upgrade to what we have been using to this point.


It's both common sense and scientific to agree that the more data we have the better we can become at capitalising from these automated betting strategies, and the same with the manual in play betting, which is why I record such deep levels of result information that are regularly assessed.


The BSP options mean the services have that future proof element I mentioned earlier, and give us the edge compared to virtually every other bookmaker based services, as our bets are only limited by BSP maximum, or available money in the market if exchange betting.


I have extended the section on the Place Betting page to emphasize the variances between BSP and Exchange betting, given the liquidity is lower in this market and with BSP that is not a problem.


Anyway, I'll have to leave this for now as I've a hospital appointment in Liverpool this afternoon I need to prepare for.


Just to round up the remaining services that didn't make a profit last week, we had just a slight dip in results for Sure Favs Foundation Straight and Target Profit, the same for Bet Focus Target Profit, and Place Back Multi Target Profit. Also, Place Lay Single dipped over the week but only single figures.


Services that made a loss over the week into double figures were Bet Focus Straight and the Place Betting duo Place Back Multi Straight both BSP and MTP, with Place Lay Multi the same story.


All results are now available to view at Exponential Bet. Select Betting Strategies from the main menu drop down and choose the service you wish to examine results in more detail.


I'll be back later this week with the side by side comparison results for the services listed above that received the upgrade, and for what's to come with the others.


I also have news on the release date for In Play Bet Club, which I'll be able to confirm fully in the next blog post.


Thank you for reading.

Ryan


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