In today's news update:
Automated Betting
In Play Bet Club
Bet & Trade Guide updates.
Automated Betting
I've been white as a sheet recently and not finished the ratchet report for each service, but I'll get to this asap when I'm back on track. Everything I'm behind schedule will start emerging over the coming couple of weeks.
It felt like I was over the worst earlier this week, but gradually declined. That said, I think I'm now hopefully on the mend and turned a corner. Oh woe is me.
The results for the Automated Strategies are updated and available to view, including the Ratchet figures for all services.
Your can examine the latest results for each strategy by selecting Betting Strategies from the main menu at Exponential Bet.
From the drop down choose the service you wish to look at in more detail, and you will find detailed results from when betting began with the detailed overview, weekly and monthly updates, and of course the ratchet numbers.
The Automated Betting Strategies will have the average odds results added as soon as Nigel finishes the coding.
I'd hoped it would be done by now, but he's found it more difficult than originally expected.
However, it's now looking closer to completion.
For exchange betting the average odds results will be a more accurate representation of what odds everyone achieves according to what has been matched.
This is mostly going to be useful for lower liquidity services that have a higher odds variance such as Place Lay Multi, but still incredibly useful overall as a measuring tool, and a step in the right direction to represent betting performance direct to the exchange compared to BSP for multiple member bets.
Racing Lays members please switch to just one option from the three available, as each operate exactly the same.
I have mentioned this before and added it to the RL page, but I need to push this more as we approach June when only one option will be available in the bot, and then onwards just one reported in the results. As it is for the weekly Racing Lays results and Ratchet.
If you're a Racing Lays member select the High option from the list, and remove any staking for the other two. I will be removing the other two options altogether from the bot at the end of May.
This is just one of many reminders to move your staking to just the one option before I do this so no panic, and I will of course email every Racing Lays member multiple times before this happens to make sure everyone is moved across, plus check the bot admin to ensure this is the case.
Place Back Multi this week recorded a winning bet within the bots bet history that was actually a losing bet. This was due to Betfair reporting an incorrect result to us, then correcting it later, and not correcting it with us. That's the simple answer.
This losing bet will show in next weeks results as I couldn't get hold of Nigel to correct it in the reporting software this weekend.
However, even with the losing bet Place Back Multi still had a good week over the four days it actively places bets in the place market.
Just deduct a point profit from the weekly results below for both straight staking and target profit.
Place Back Multi Straight Staking 14th to 20th March
Place Back Multi Target Profit 14th to 20th March
Racing Lays has for the past few weeks hit a new profit peak, from when it began betting. The service consistently returns a weekly profit, and shows a robustness to absorb losing bets while still pushing the balance upward. This week being a prime example of resilience to bank a profit after some losing bets.
In fact Racing Lays so far this month for the Ratchet option at 1% has banked over +25 points profit straight staking.
Given this is the win market and liquidity is not usually an issue, this will be relatively accurate for all members opting to ratchet with Racing Lays from the start of the month.
Quite an impressive ROI, and just 4 days making a loss with 15 winning days recorded.
Racing Lays Straight Staking - 1% Ratchet Applied
The dip at the end of the graph shown above and below occurred today, with a couple of losing bets, but over the week we still banked a profit just shy of +7 points for exchange straight.
Racing Lays Straight Staking 14th to 20th March
Place Lay Multi isn't having its best period betting, albeit only dropping approx a couple of points last week. Even since the trend update the service hasn't gathered the initial momentum I'd expected.
However, if you want a lesson in long term confidence in a strategy to recover all losses and push to a new profit peak, just take a look at the detailed overview results for Racing Lays.
Place Lay Multi is showing very much the same trend, with a prolonged dip and middling along period, and just like Racing Lays I expect the same upward trend to follow and recover, then move the balance past its highest recorded profit point hitting a more consistent run of form.
This will happen with Place Lay Multi at some point over the coming months, and everyone who effectively dumped stock and stopped betting at the dip will miss the growth period to follow. As people have done with Racing Lays, and now missed the subsequent winning period that's recouped and pushed the balance higher.
If you want even more evidence I know what I'm talking about on this subject please watch the YouTube video on my channel, it was published on the 9th March 2021 predicting the the dip and push back that would follow for Racing Lays. I cover this in detail.
It took seven months to kick in from when I published the video, but it happened as expected after a period of up and down with the balance, but then we see the growth trend with losses recouped and new profit gained. Anyone that took note of this and stuck with the service operating within advised points is now in profit.
This is why with any long term betting investment you have to be set up for the dips to reach the peaks, and why Place Lay Multi will go through the same process.
The question is will you be on the right side of the graph when the profits come in for this service, or any of the automated strategies. I hope so, as I want everyone to benefit from these over the years to come as I will.
Some of the services will be more consistent over the months and will operate easily within a low drawdown having ups and downs, but less of a prolonged downtime.
Whereas others will have losing periods as shown in the Racing Lays detailed overview result graph. Some will have losing or break even years over the time we run these strategies, but then years that recover all losses and generate huge profits.
Exactly why I opt for caution and sensible points allocation with the services. I do my best to advise this, and all of the services operate within the range set from the offset.
However, if running a service with high odds variance such as Place Lay Multi you have to factor this in with the points allocations that will need to be monitored by you, given I don't check what everyone is matched at for every bet.
It's proven with any race reliable data analysis that profitable strategies will have long losing periods before hitting periods of profit if ran without deviance over a period of years.
That's why I set up for the bigger picture to bank the profit and cash out when I reach my own personal targets. There is a lot more I could talk about on this subject, but for another day.
I'll leave it for now with the final thought. If you're betting with the automated services please do look at the results for each of these, and know they are all long term investments.
Don't expect them to win every week or month, look at them as something you will benefit from over the years ahead.
Given they show higher performance the longer they operate due to the nature of the filtering processes, we can expect the increase in profits and consistently higher returns the longer they run, but this can be at any point on the timeline so you have to be in to win so to speak.
The profits recorded since they began betting shows they have ups and downs, periods of dips and middling followed by upward trends that will recover and bank good money, but you need to be set up for this with your staking otherwise it's not worth starting at all.
I will help anyone when I can with staking advice or what services I think will suit them best, so if you're unsure about this just ask. As Id much rather you have it set up right from the start with your expectations aligned with how the services operate.
This way we will both be reaping the rewards over the years ahead, and you won't miss high volume profit peaks when they come along after periods where you may think the strategy is not working, but it is doing exactly as expected.
I've learned a lot regarding how I approach helping people set up to stake, and now with members joining it is much easier. People get it pretty much straight away, and have the right points allocation for whatever strategy they deploy.
When I started the automated strategies I had the mindset that anyone operating them should be solely responsible for calculating their own risk, and didn't provide the advice I wish I had done at that time.
That's a big regret for me, and a mistake I will never make again. As I should have given clear guidance showing how to set up the points, and how each strategy can operate over the timeline.
I feel like I missed a huge opportunity to help some people initially who joined when the services started, as my approach was different, and I expected people to see things the way I did, but that's never the case unless fully explained.
In my defence I was very wrapped up in the development and technical aspects of creating the services we now have in operation, but this is certainly no excuse for not providing the foundation for everyone to be set up right from the start.
The video I will be adding that I was due to add a couple of weeks ago before getting ill, will have details of how to stake and set up the bot, which I wish I'd done back when the services began.
If you're operating any of the automated services now you're in at a good time, and you have the support and information available to demonstrate how to operate these services within the software, set up your staking, and also have a solid history of actual live betting.
I can't go back in time, but I can learn from this and make sure things are done right now by providing as much staking, planning, and bot set up information as possible.
Looking at how Cheltenham affected betting last week, it certainly reduced bet volumes overall for the automated services, which was the main thing to take from the weeks betting. Some performed better than others as usual, and some hardly had any bets due to the festival affecting the card.
In Play Bet Club
The In Play Bet Club is still on schedule to commence live betting for members next week.
Yesterday was the first day I looked at the laptop since getting the lurgy, and just worked my way through the in play card within Bet Mover placing four winning lay bets.
One race with five runners the horse I placed a lay looked bolted on to lose, and it did lose to make it a winning lay bet.
However, three of the five runners fell leaving my horse and another to battle it out. Thankfully it worked out fine as stated, but it was certainly an oh no moment.
That is horse racing, no matter how much we add science to help us find the right results, we are still dealing with horse, jockeys, hurdles, conditions etc...
As much as we can filter the process significantly in our favour to make a consistent profit, there will always be those days when no matter what logic is applied things just won't make sense. Luck is definitely the hidden metric with a weighted percentage.
The in play vids showing recent betting will be online asap added to YouTube.
These will be published and start to emerge over the coming couple of weeks as I gradually catch up and feel less like boiled death.
I'd expect to get started with betting from Thursday onwards for the In Play Bet Club, probably over the weekend in reality depending on the available races and opportunities of course, but everything is now in place to get going.
Truth be told, I cannot bloody wait to start this service, get the momentum going, bank profits, and build betting banks for my members. Reset and restart again and again to continually make money for everyone.
I'll post an email to all members at the end of next week after I've checked bets have been matched, odds reached, liquidity, and talked to Nigel about the average odds reporting for the service.
For the In Play Bet Club more than ever compared to the other services the average odds result reporting feature will be very important, and what members will be comparing to their own results achieved within the software.
As we're solely dealing with direct to the exchange betting in play, these results will be our guide as to how much we are affecting the market across a variety of different meetings that will attract varied amounts of money.
On this note, there is a slight difference to the way we will be renewing memberships with the In Play Bet Club.
This change in how we will be renewing memberships came from Nigel. As he wants time to update the way bets are placed for everyone and make improvements, which has to be done when no betting is in process.
When someone reaches the 12 point target profit they will automatically stop betting.
Which is how I'd previously explained the way it operates so nothing new, as the target profit pledge which people have joined to reach is exactly the same.
In addition to this their place will be reserved to be invited to re join so they can go again, which again is how I'd explained it would be for members. To give them the opportunity to keep their space in the club, and continue betting.
However, the difference will be that we will not go again until everyone is over the line and hit the 12 points from the group of 50 members.
At the point everyone has reached the target profit the invitations to re-join will be posted, with a new start date when betting will resume.
I have to add in response to a few emails received recently, I do not know how long it will take to reach the 12 point target.
It may be within a month, or it could take several months, it depends on the results of course.
Based on my betting to date my best guess would be two months all going to plan.
With regard to the membership renewal process there may be the same reservation required for existing members, just to let me know they want to keep their spaces and go again with the next group, which seems logical for us from a planning perspective.
The bets themselves will all start together though for each group, and this comes with benefits for us operating the service, and for all members to have the target met factoring in the various in play operations that need to be considered.
It gives Nigel the time to add any updates without disrupting betting in between each group recommencing.
It also gives me a chance to take a break and recharge ready to go again, which Nigel pointed out and I hadn't considered, but after a month or two for example betting to hit target taking a week or so off is a good idea.
It also makes it completely fair for everyone to hit the pledged amount of points, and to not leave anybody behind before going again.
If you consider this, we may have some members being consistently matched at better odds who achieve target profit a lot faster than others, and this could be down to where they are situated in the world, their commission rates, Betfair server speed, and a list of other things that could determine the speed they reach 12 points in comparison to other members.
As we hit target for each member and their betting stops until things restart, it will then accelerate the process of hitting target for the remaining members.
This gives Nige and myself some breathing space to assess things, add updates, and take a short breather before getting going again. Don't expect too much of a break though, as we want to keep the momentum going and hit target as often as possible for everyone. I'd expect a couple of weeks tops will be standard, allowing for periodic holidays etc which I cover in the general rules of service.
Nigel is looking at ways to minimise the code required to place the bets in play, and less code to do the job is always better. Over the first batch of 12 points it will give him the time to program changes required, ready to implement for batch two and so on.
It seems like a fair way of doing things getting everyone to 12 points. As we take into account the multiple factors involved with live in play betting direct to the exchange, before restarting with everyone onboard and going again, and again.
As mentioned above, all being well we should be off the mark next week. I'll email at the end of the weekend to confirm if bets have commenced for in play members.
Everyone is set up within the bot I can see from the admin panel and ready to go, the software is fully tested and working as it should, so ideally we commence betting asap next week and we can begin building the balance.
Bet & Trade Guides
Just a quick mention on this as I had a fair bit of interest regarding the guides.
Somewhere between April to June this year I'll have the In Play Guide available. Which will contain a complete walk through of how I select my horses to lay in running.
It will have all the latest videos edited and slowed down to the selection point of every bet, which will show you the rationale being the decision making.
Initially it will be the jumps racing, and later on will include another edition for the flat racing.
There will also be demonstrations showing how to apply the concept without BM and just using software and the live stream.
As with all the guides this will then give you the knowledge to do this yourself, and not require an ongoing subscription. You just need the time to invest to learn it all and apply it daily.
The Trade Guide which is free and available here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/betfair-trading
This will have more pre race trade examples added over the course of this year, with extra content, and a much better video walk through taking each step to a more detailed level.
I'd expect over the same timescale of April to June for this to be updated, and again later in the year.
The Automated Strategies you may be surprised to read will have do it yourself guides added and available to purchase.
These will explain the exact filtering process I use for the software, and how I add the race data to the selections.
You can then choose to do this yourself manually each day by creating spreadsheets and going race to race, or taking the concept and programming another bot to do the job.
As my strategies operate using Cloud Bet Bot and everything is built in with AI to apply regular trend updates, doing it yourself will of course come with variance to my selections.
Timing will become a factor if manually placing bets, or if using another bot the reliability of the software, if it's downloaded running locally how it runs on your machine, and lots of variables to consider.
What you will be able to purchase though is the detailed filters and instructions demonstrating exactly how the selections are made, which it is then possible to replicate manually, or as stated using software.
You will be able to do it yourself using other betting platforms for example such as Betdaq for laying, or for the backing strategies any other bookmaker you have accounts with. Some of which allow third party software, or you will have to place the bets race to race. When using Cloud Bet Bot and subscribing to my services means you have to use Betfair.
Which for me is the best way to do it, but for some who can't use Betfair, or just don't like using Betting Bots and want total control using a strategy that has a true betting history, the guides for the automated services will be very useful.
They won't dilute the currently available automated options or affect the liquidity in the market in any negative way, in fact the total opposite.
They also won't negatively impact my subscription services, as members who use my automation do so for this exact reason. The strategies run on auto pilot and are maintained.
It's a win win for everyone to have these as stand alone guides, and I've wanted to do it for a while now, so I'm delighted to be able to report they will be along and start being published one by one during the first half of this year.
The Dutch Bet and Lay Betting Guides previously mentioned cover two very strong strategies that have to be manually applied daily, and can make a decent ROI over time.
If I had the time myself I'd be doing them every day, and at some point when time permits I will be doing this regularly. I may be able to add automation with these at some point, but for now I'll release them as manual do it yourself guides.
I've no set ETA for them to arrive, but I have in mind July to Sept for a release date, which gives enough time to collate the betting content demonstrating the selection process, while recording results to show how effective they are.
Right that's it from me today as I'm still technically classified as a vegetable. Updating the results, doing some betting yesterday and today, and writing this news update feels like I've done twelve hour shifts for a week, which I know is pathetic.
Any questions regarding today's news post please let me know.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan