In today's news:
In Play Bet Club results and update.
The weekly Automated Betting Strategy assessment.
In Play Bet Club Update
I spent five days in play betting from the 26th October up to and including a few races today the 1st November, here are my results below:
My bets are all Fixed Liability Lay Bets placed in running, and you can see the results for this on the far right RT (Running Total) column N.
With the individual Profit & Loss column M to the left of it.
20 bets in total, 19 winners and 1 losing lay bet.
The thing that each of these bets has in common without any deviation, is they were all selected using the same strategy.
£316.58 profit betting with a stake set at £100 fixed liability.
You can see in column O my average odds overall are 7.8.
I know I can bring this average down because the IPL (In Play Lowest) column H is showing that in most cases I could have placed the lay bet at lower odds.
The reason I record this metric is to provide this information to help me improve over time the more bets I place using the same selection method every time.
Incidentally, the reason there are no IPL numbers for today is because they update overnight.
Column F shows the DB (Distance Beaten) figures which is recorded as lengths, and you can see in most of the bets my lay bets were winning by wide margins, with the horses backed to lose finishing behind the winner in double figures.
Not all the time, and I have had a few closer calls, but my average Distance Beaten figure is presently at an average of 25.5 lengths beaten from the recorded 20 lay bets in play.
I have my commission set to 2%, and I also record the Fixed Stake results in the sheet with my stake set at £10.
You will notice above in column K the running total for fixed stake betting, with the individual bet profit and loss in column J.
The staking set at £10 for fixed stake and £100 for fixed liability is to keep it balanced.
As a loss at odds of 10 for a fixed stake bet is £90 using this stake amount, with the fixed liability loss at £100 per bet.
When I bet I aim to never bet over odds over 10, although with a drift from placement to matched this can sometimes be unavoidable.
Having both lay betting options recorded is a useful way for me to gauge over time which betting method will be the most effective.
However, I do need to come down on one side when placing the bets as I can't place a fixed stake and fixed liability bet at the same time using the same account within Bet Mover directly, but I could if I set up a bot within Cloud Bet Bot to do one when I do the other, which may be an option.
For safety reasons given the potential for odds swings doing this for members of the In Play Bet Club I have set the bot to only bet fixed liability bets.
This sets each members max exposure at the bet amount they personally set within the bot.
I'll continue to publish my results weekly leading up to the service going live on the 29th November, and also on the In Play Bet Club page I'll have added to Exponential Bet on the 15th October.
If I get an overwhelming amount of requests to included Fixed Stake betting as well as Fixed Liability, then I'll look to include it within Cloud Bet Bot when the service goes live.
In Play Bet Club will have a maximum capacity of 50 members at any given time, which is to preserve the liquidity on the horses I bet in play.
The horses I focus on in running are typically either at the head of the market, or an outsider receiving a lot of support, so the money will be there for this amount of members providing we're all betting sensibly, and I will be able to track this.
I do have an offset in place so the bets are going to market above what's current at the time I lay the horses via the bot, which also creates a wider range for each members to be matched.
The bets are also being placed in milliseconds from the moment I press the button.
If you haven't registered your interest for the In Play Bet Club and you're interested in receiving an invitation, you can do so by emailing me at ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk with Cloud Bet Bot In Play in the subject line.
On the 14th November I'll be sending out invites in a first come first serve basis from when people have registered, and from the interest I've received so far I'd guess the 50 places will fill up on the same day.
This will put the remaining interested people in to my reserve list, and if a space becomes available in the future I'll then be in touch to offer the membership option to the next in the list.
I'm happy with the initial testing we've done with the platform between Nigel and myself, it's robust and reliable, and the strategy I've decided to use will never change for this bet type.
It's something I've practised since very early on using Bet Mover, and with the addition of new features within the platform I'm able to trust my judgement placing the bets following this betting method.
To the point whereby if I lose a bet as I did on the 30th October with Soaring Glory it's just bad luck, and the results shown so far with my distance beaten numbers I think back this up.
I wanted to start recording the results as shown above like this to demonstrate how I'm doing of course, but also to help me track and improve my selection process.
I'll post my next result update in play betting next Monday, which will be from Wednesday onward this week. As I am Ryan the removal man tomorrow given the completion date is the 5th November to be out the current house.
Thankfully I've moved most of the main stuff out already into my storage unit, but I'm looking forward to a break from it to focus on nothing but betting for a couple of months at least, as we won't have our own move date until then.
Then I'll hire a company to lug my belongings to my new home, while I stay at the folks for a short period while it gets set up. It will be nice to spend some time with the old dears.
Anyway, you don't want to read about my house move, but I wanted to update everyone on the upcoming In Play Bet Club and how things are progressing toward a launch date later this month.
Automated Betting Strategy Assessment
There is no getting away from the fact October was a disappointing month for the automated strategies.
There is nothing more depressing than having a poor months betting, than having to write about it and spend the day updating the results across the website.
Place Lay Multi which is usually so consistent had solid start to the month, but then tapered off, and given the run it hit I was surprised to finish in a small profit overall with my bets for the exchange straight option, and still be in profit overall for the 1% Ratchet quarterly bet period.
The services are all in profit over the full betting timeline apart from Lay Dutching, and showing impressive points balances in some instances with either low or completely acceptable drawdown numbers for the bet types they cover.
The results are updated including last weeks numbers and October's monthly figures, which are also added to the month by month section.
You can examine the results for each service by selecting Betting Strategies from the main menu, and choosing the service you want to look at from the drop down.
My opinion on the dip in form when looking at the results last month for most of the service options is that it is disappointing, and it pushes back on the winning bets that have preceded the downward trend, but when I look at the bigger picture I've seen worse weeks and months from the bulk of the strategies, and each has bounced back to a higher returning profit point.
It is annoying, but these are long term investment based betting strategies, and they will annoy us sometimes that's a fact.
I can see some of the strategies such as Sure Favs Foundation backing using straight staking, this hasn't had anywhere near the initial growth from when it first started, but still has incredible winning periods, and has all the potential to hit a run that propels the balance 100% higher that its current recorded points profit.
The target profit option seems a lot steadier and the balance is incrementally increasing, but at a safer level over a longer timeline than I personally would like, but it is heading the right way.
Which is the case for the majority of the services, and if you were offered the returns published at the start of the recorded published betting cycle you'd take it, I can guarantee that.
However, it depends when you join as to the results you will achieve, and if you had joined Sure Favs Foundation for example at the start of July your balance would be pretty much at a break even, and this is while you're paying your subscription fee.
That requires belief in the service above and beyond what you're experienced, and based on what the service has shown so far.
Had you been running the target profit option of Sure Favs Foundation over the same betting period you would be in profit, and considering the minimal risk and very low drawdown probably very happy.
If you joined Place Lay Multi in July and using the BSP which is what everyone can achieve, you would be in profit now and pretty happy to pay your membership, even factoring in a couple of below par months betting over September and October.
The evidence the service will produce over the long term would have been proven to you, and I'd expect anyone to stick at if betting using this strategy and bet type, as the balance would be up from the start point.
This is all good if you're following the right strategy and betting option of course, but if you're not, and you've joined during a dip or period where the balance just middles along, I understand you will be experiencing a different set of results, and require some additional patience to see long term gains.
There is no predicting when a dip will occur, and when someone joins this may be during that period, or it could be at the start of the longest win run.
The importance of correct staking is paramount, and this is why I stress it so much in my news posts and video's published.
You need to be in the game to reach the profit points, and typically they arrive like buses with some waiting in-between.
If you joined during September or October and got on the wrong end of a losing period, my advice is to look at the Detailed Results graphs and stats.
You will see a history of ups and downs to reach the profits recorded, and put yourself at any of the dips before the win runs and see how many times you may have quit and missed the following profitable periods.
These are fully automated strategies operating from an AI type algorithm programmed by Nigel and myself.
We created the services with nothing more in mind than long term betting investment profits, that need to be operated with that mind set and a correct points balance.
The strategies are programmed and fully automated, I'm not there each day placing the bets they run from a set of filters that evolve over time.
The algorithm I can see has in fact evolved to the point where the trend analysis updates will no longer be required for any of the services.
This is coming in the next few weeks for all strategies, and will really give each service a better foundation to be more consistently profitable.
Which will mean each service can be simplified to its most effective form. Which means the betting options for each service can be reduced, and as as such vastly minimize what I explained above, about being on the right service at the right time.
If there are fewer strategy options due to the fact the options that are available produce the highest returns, and are running optimised in a way that no matter the changes in horse racing with specific parameters included in the strategies, the trends won't make any difference to the results over time, which will be a steadier upward line of growth.
This will reduce incidents of being on the set up that didn't perform as well as the others factor, and also greatly reduce any confusion with bot set up and results published simplified.
Nothing will change for you as an already existing member with your set up, you do not need to do anything, and any service you're following when it operates using none trend reliant filters will be moved across for you to the optimum setting.
Your stakes will remain the same, but your settings available within the bot and options will be streamlines depending what service you're following.
For example the Place Betting services only have one option for stake or ratchet, so these will see no difference.
The same for Bet Focus that has only two options to straight stake or target profit.
These strategies can be massively refined to perform at a far higher level with more bet volume and steadier profit growth not reliant on trends, and this update from the AI within the bot can be done a lot easier than the services with more varied options.
Bet Advantage, Lay Dutching, Sure Favs, and Racing Lays can also be put through the same process, and we can enjoy steadier profit growth with more winning months not dependant on the latest trends.
We can instead be set up with the exact same parameters until the end of time and make a lot more money with reduced ups and downs.
The software that runs the services has identified a set of filters that were required at the start of the betting period, but now with more data accumulated over time have been identified as counter productive.
We're all in this to make more money, and by gathering the data over such a long timeframe I've said it many times before, the more data we accumulate the more opportunity we have to capitalize by improving how the data is applied to our daily betting parameters.
This is why when looking at last month, or any month where the bank has taken a hit I can see the bigger picture, because I am privy to what is developing with the software placing the bets.
All I can do is give you this information now, and hope that your mindset for the automated betting strategies is set at long term investor, with your banking also in line to my recommended points.
As each of the strategies listed above will in my opinion smash their predicted points profits over time, they are not to be judged on monthly results in reality although I publish these for my own information purposes, and I know members find it useful to track monthly progression.
As they begin exponentially improving performance due to the intelligent software that runs the automated betting, the strategy database will expand over time, and you can expect more refined balance growth that has less dips in performance.
That said, undeniably last month was disappointing, but we will also have some incredible months to report on ahead, more than the annoying ones.
That's it from me today as I've spent all day at the laptop betting in play, updating site results, and finishing this news post, so I need to go do something else with my eyeballs than looking at a computer screen.
Thank you for reading, and if you have any questions let me know.
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