It's a decisive couple of weeks of positive updates at Exponential Bet.
Today's post will cover In Play Beta and what I am working on with this system, but firstly let me lead in and explain why I'm running this blog series.
These posts are not marketing promotions, I'm detailing the decisions made for the site and services designed to make the absolute most of my time, which in turn will benefit every member.
From the 4th June I want foundations in place and everyone fully up to speed, with a clear understanding how to get the very best out their Exponential Bet membership.
I'm stripping down unnecessary and over complicated aspects of the site and services, to be more effective and productive.
All I am interested in over the next two years is making as much money as possible, and then retiring from the daily routine.
Not vanishing off the face of the earth or stopping running services for members, but at that stage I want to take a few steps back and enjoy a different pace.
Having unexpected time off recently helped me drill through what needs to be done in order to really push on and achieve more. I've a second wind as a result, and catching up rapidly on lost time.
My target will only be achieved if I place full attention on generating the right profit margins, using the right tools, and running correctly tuned bet or trade systems.
In the coming series of blogs I'll cover each service at Exponential Bet currently active and in the pipeline. While also resuming my reports for Hedger Pro, Trade On Sports, Focus Ratings, Expo Bot V1, Remote Bet & Trade, and one more service I am presently working with to complete the set I utilize.
I'm not scheduled to review and implement anymore services for Exponential Bet members, these are the only tools I want to use, and as stated in my previous post the idea with these is to give you as much info as possible to find the right fit.
You don't want to be subscribed to everything I use myself and recommend, and in most cases you won't need to be, which you'll understand what I mean as I slim down what I'm working on, and show you step by step how I'm dramatically increasing my profit margins as a result of this hyper focused approach.
With a lot to cover in these upcoming blogs I'll do my best to stay on topic in each, but wanted today to lead in to where I'm heading as you'll begin seeing the site catching up with a fresh layout. For future posts on each subject I'll be diving straight in.
TBH it's just nice to be able to see again properly and get my enthusiasm back, as it's been a tough month and difficult working on even the most basic jobs, but I can see clearly now the pain has gone (sorry I couldn't help myself)....
Today's post regarding In Play Beta will cover my immediate and long term plans for this system.
In Play Beta is early access and was released during its development stage in March 2018.
My early progress with this system prior to mentioning it to members was very positive, and I went ahead with my first early access release allowing a small number of testers to use it. This proved to be successful, and the balance continued to head the right way over the preceding months.
From here we moved to a Beta version and Expo Bot V1 was designed around the lengthy selection criteria.
The software to run the strategy completely on auto pilot was added around July 2018 using The Bet Engine, then a year on from initial prototype access Expo Bot became available with the strategy built in from install, and requiring no day to day input fully set and forget.
I've been assessing In Play Beta since we began back in March 2018, looking at the ongoing and historical results while stacking up a long list of data filters.
It's taken a colossal chunk of my time, and over a year later I'm not where I need to be in order to confidently take this strategy out of beta, and into an official release. Which considering the blistering start for the system is disappointing, but still an important learning curve with a lot of positives to take from it.
Earlier this month I set up In Play to run for members over a broad range of racing, to release a lot of the filters that where in my opinion creating a convoluted selection criteria.
Unlike Auto Dutch Beta which is a simple formula placed over a specific time period, In Play Beta contained a lot of specific racing filters, which initially in year one based on the data at time of creation generated a positive year profit of 92% balance growth.
The data set for this I found as time progressed from the initial assessment of the filters meant the template placed over the service shifted.
This and a few other things I'll explain in more detail, but what it mean is the filters I found produced the most profit back in March 2018, a year on as racing progressed, jockey and trainer performance and seasonality kicked in, the switch from manual to bot usage, along with some very random out of anyone's control factors, meant tracking and adapting to these changes with a fully automated software based set up, and having a solid results history to work from became impossible.
Additionally, as this is an in running system unlike Auto Dutch Beta, liquidity now is starting to reach its peak of acceptability, given the interest in the service increased. I mentioned this when first launched, that I will eventually stop allowing access due to the obvious fact liquidity will mean members have trouble being matched.
With more members all reaching for the same outcome in play, and over a spread of high quality and low quality racing obviously with varying levels of investment, the initial tightness of results achieved by everyone has began to show signs we're up to capacity under the current set up. Which to me is a clear signal the system needs to adapt or shut the doors to protect current members.
On top of this, Betfair has created some problems for the system by advertising a promotion based around the strategy itself, promoted to their member base offering money back if the selections we've been are aiming for using In Play Beta performed exactly to our strategy. I can literally put a finger on the timeline when this was added by Betfair, and when I noticed a spike in the money going on the same horses in running.
Betfair have also given me reasons to not be cheerful with reliability issues. Given the in running markets have seen major IT problems and break downs over the past year causing all kinds of havoc and time wasted, along with the betting software rolling over and needing updates to accommodate for Betfair's lack of stability.
Betfair have in fact over the past year ran a significant update on their site, which took a chunk out of our results, and time out of my schedule dealing with software mandates.
Not forgetting the Equine Flu which affected all racing and everyone involved in horse racing, the knock on effect from this was significant, and occurred during the 12 month year one cycle. Without doubt this had a freak affect on the results given the many layers of selection criteria embedded within the system.
My decision at this moment is to pause any future sales of In Play Beta in order to A) protect existing members, and B) take the time I need to adapt the system to ensure liquidity will not be an issue, and work with a fresh data set which will give us the required edge.
Removing all the convoluted elements and taking this system to a pure formula based method, means a step back to propel the strategy forward.
From here I'll move the system to a new version available only to existing members, then once we're confident things are in place with it running like a well oiled machine a decision will be made to release it again for sale, to keep it behind closed doors.
Nothing with this decision benefits me from a financial point of view running Exponential Bet, given In Play Beta is one of the best selling products on site, so I hope at least this demonstrates I am in this for the right reasons, and dedicated to delivering on my promises.
I'll reveal more about the new data set I'm working on to members, and will cover this set up within the blog as it's my final piece in the jigsaw so to speak.
At the end of this month In Play Beta will be removed from the sites available services for sale, and put in to a work in progress state, with members kept up to date with my progress. When I have more information about this and if it's coming back for sale I'll post a news update.
Existing members running this system under either version 1 or 2 settings it is your decision to continue, but what I'd prefer is that you pause your in play activity until I give you instruction to resume, which will be utilizing new data, a formula I'm confident in applied, and a schedule being adapted for the service running it over the right set of races.
My time working on this and knowledge gained since release, has set me up perfectly to understand what it needs and doesn't need. I can now develop the strategy in the direction it needs to operate to best effect.
We can make a lot of money with In Play Betting using this method, but only by learning and adapting.
I'll be glad to answer any questions about In Play Beta if you drop me an email through the contact form, and I'll get back to you asap.
The next blog post this week will cover Expo Bot V1 which has come a long way in a short space of time, and Auto Dutch Beta's development, results, with my immediate and future plans for this fully automated Dutch betting strategy.
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