It's Easter weekend, the weather is gorgeous, and I'm indoors writing a news blog. I really know how to embrace the summer time obviously, so let's crack on with today's update.
I've a lot going on to cover for each service, so today's post will be an as it comes walk through.
What's in today's news... Trading and the high impact changes I've made to the bolt soon to be introduced, plus a major guide overhaul scheduled.
Auto Dutch Beta is now over three months since launch, and using Expo Bot V1 makes this a fully automated Dutch betting strategy showing a decent ROI at 41.8% profit.
I'll wrap up today with In Play Beta in light of the upcoming version 2 release, and my thoughts on this strategy.
Lets begin where I left off in my previous post using Hedger Pro, which I utilize to find in play trading opportunities, and to be fair it's a canny piece of kit.
My results to date after commission deductions:
Date No. Trades P&L
16/4/19 1 £63.33
19/4/19 4 £58.95
20/4/19 1 £24.51
I'm risking a £100 per trade with this, and as you can see below I lost the first race on the 19th April being partially matched in play, but ending the day with a win thankfully.
You'll notice I recently started using automation for the in play trades (top right in orange).
This strategy file created within Fairbot matching at SP is pretty useful. It works for in running trades at whatever point difference its set. Over the past two days I have it set to hedge at -1.5 in play from SP.
I've also adopted a stop at a profit approach once I hit 20% upwards ROI on the day, so today I was done after the first trade and cancelled the remainder. This isn't fully automated yet, so I can only do this when I'm at my desk.
I'm collating video footage when I use HP which I'll publish soon, but looking at the example below from yesterdays trade all I've done is use the APD (average price drop) number, which I'm looking for a high number ideally over 70%. Along with the PAE (Price Actual Expected), and as long as these two show a horse within the Hedge tab on the graph that's consistently returned a 100% plus profit over time, looking like the stand out, this is my selection.
Hardly scientific, but it's a starting point as I get used to the software and getting the most out of it.
The selection Dunhallow Gesture for me showed the most potential to be able to trade for an easy 20% in running, and it payed off. The PAE of 6.7 married with the APD of 81%, and consistent profit over time hitting 100% target stood out.
Hedger Pro does have a habit of uncovering these horses that run well, and sticking to the top horses for now but not bolted on evens favourites, the odds movement required has become more consistent.
That said, I do however need a larger spread of personal usage over time data, and as stated I'm still a newbie with the software, so expect some losses mixed in with the wins with these live examples. The coming weeks Hedger Pro updates will include some video to You Tube and within the blog post, showing the process of selection as it's often easier to understand.
One thing I will say is that using Fairbot automation set up has made it a lot easier, although I know the developer of HP is talking of including an in play trade option, which would be even easier to have it all in one.
Plus it could run on auto pilot targeting horses that meet percentage criteria, just set stake and run, then stopping when target profit is met for the day / week / month etc. Early days, and plenty more to come with this superb software.
If you're interested in Hedger Pro visit the website here: www.hedgerpro.co.uk You can access the software for just £9.99 for the first month and join me on my learning curve, as we can share any useful info uncovered. It's a lot to take in at first, but it's starting to make a lot more sense.
The Trade Guide V4 is back on track using the updated bolt on, and as mentioned in a recent post the entire guide itself is having a more course focused approach included, but before this major overhaul I'll release the bolt on updates.
Anyone unfamiliar what I mean with the bolt on, this is for trade members subscribed to Focus Ratings, and using this information to identify horses with strong trading potential. All I've done is observe the process since I began using FR data, and tighten the parameters to increase the success rate.
Bolt on users have been waiting for this for a few weeks, and it's nearly done. It's taken time to find a sweet spot for want of better terminology, but that pretty much explains it.
Using Focus Ratings to identify horses that do well as bets and make good horses to trade makes good sense, but from a blanket approach trading point of view its needed a bit of taming.
Since establishing the correct settings within the M1 Auto file using Fairbot, which can also be adapted within the Bet Angel version, the bolt on using Focus Ratings started showing a lot more green as you can see below. You'll also notice lower returns on the trades, but I'll explain this in the bolt on, as it falls in line with overall liabilities.
Since deciding on the method and correct way to deploy the system using FR data, over the past few days things have worked according to prediction, and £29.50 profit banked is a fair return given the small stakes I'm using.
This is a lot less risky than in play trading for obvious reasons, and now I've tweaked the settings I'm more often than not hitting expected profit per trade, which is the best anyone can do with any betting or trading.
Unlike live trading and scalping, which is more in the moment capitalizing on what is going on there and then, this method of trading is drilled down to the point when each trade goes on, according to set parameters, and is hedged come what may at set triggers.
It's actually far more difficult to create a system like this, and I don't believe it can be applied as a blanket strategy over the day. It can be programmed to take in to account specific criteria that a human being will assess come race time, or close to race, ie an hour, or in the 10 min run up, but it will always differ to being sat at your desk watching the horses go to post on your TV.
That said, I'm happy with the recent changes as they have worked according to my calculations, and after I've ran these for a while longer they will be available to all trade members using FR data. Everything is exactly the same with the M1 Auto files, just the settings and bet types I'll update within the bolt on area.
I've updated recent results on site now I've settled on this approach with M1 Auto, which you can find here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/pre-race-trading-results
The new Trade Guide V5 is being worked on, which will include another automated strategy not requiring any external sources. I've no set ETA for this as yet I can confirm as I've a lot to do, but I'll keep you posted as always.
In Play Beta was the initial inspiration to create a bot, but this was already running with The Bet Engine, and still does to this day, but Auto Dutch Beta had no other third party software capable of running it automated and had to have its own created fit for purpose.
Expo Bot V1 has literally ticked all the boxes with this strategy, and the feedback from members running both modules with Expo Suite makes this system a resounding favourite of the two available.
Straight out the box it locates the Dutch bets that meet criteria, calculates the percentage stakes against book value, then places the bets until target profit is met, all with just a click to start betting.
The default for this is stop at a profit, and rightly so as the profits in comparison to running each race are higher. With a lot less bet exposure the profits as predicted will do better than running it over every race.
In approx three months since launch we're over 41% total profit running the strategy this way, which for a flat staking 1% of bank per bet fully automated system is impressive.
You can find out more and view latest results for both methods here, with detailed breakdowns available: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/automated-dutch-betting
A member of this service put me in touch with a data provider who can without doubt improve this system. The way his data has been collated will mean we can target races giving us a higher chance of success, and avoid the inevitable losing runs from time to time.
The growth rate is excellent as it is but things can be better, and once I've applied myself to this new data source, which I've investigated fully prior to even mentioning in this post, I'll not only work with them and the Expo Bot developer to factor this information in to the automation, but I'll explain more about the source of data, and how you can use it yourself for other betting strategies.
Recently I've been blessed with either finding new software myself, or being introduced to some very smart people, it feels like synchronicity at work.
For now Auto Dutch Beta continues to push on with another win today in the first race. Weathering the occasional crappy day to reach a new profit high. I'm pleased with this system, and a target over 100% upwards over twelve months looks very achievable.
Now lets wrap up this post with a slab of reality, as In Play Beta runs using Expo Bot V1 within its own module installed from default, and has seen a disappointing start to the new twelve month cycle.
It will pull back and then drop again, and I've written before it feels like rolling a rock up a hill and watching it roll down again sometimes, then a bit higher up the hill, and so on.
In year one we banked 92% profit growth, which is decent, but in year two and a month in we're in the minus by approx 10%.
I've scheduled a version 2 update for this system and still assessing how I'll tune it from this upgrade. This is due on the 30th April, so approx a week and a half away I'll be sending an email to members with more info about the changes.
A point I have to make here with this system, it's obviously still in beta and was launched as an early access product, which in year one obviously received rave reviews. It did well and always bounced back to a new profit high under the current settings. With very little fuss.
The current down turn in results came at a poor time after putting in a lot of work to adapt it to Expo Bot V1, and seeing new members join who'd followed the system and wanted it as a default module within the Expo Suite, then hit a downturn, has been truly disappointing.
From my point of view the strategy is still in development, and it may remain in beta for a lot longer until I'm fully satisfied its robust enough to make an official launch.
I look at everything I produce always with a critical eye, and under the microscope to continually improve. This system is something I've really enjoyed working with, but on the flip side it can be hard work given the prolonged periods of up and down performance, making it difficult to assess.
The data from Hedger Pro I'm starting to see has a lot of value for this strategy, and also the data I've recently discovered for Auto Dutch Beta. The process of getting this system to the levels I know it can run at may take a little longer than expected, but as stated it is still a beta product being worked on in the public eye.
This makes it more interesting, but can also be challenging for obvious reasons.
What I'd hope for this service in the immediate future, is the next update increases strike rate by circa 10%, which will see a faster recovery rate with more first race wins, which occurred often last year.
For the long term I'd like it to reach official version by the end of this year, and consistently return upwards of 100% ROI without all drawn out recovery periods. I appreciate that it's a long game, I think from my site and posts you know this is how I operate, but when other strategies are recovering and pushing on a lot more effectively, in play beta needs to improve and keep up. Some tough decisions to make with this system over the next week or so, and I'll keep yo in the loop.
A good example of this is Automated Football Betting, which is a steady growth fully automated football system, operating in high market volumes to make larger bet stakes possible.
This strategy was a lot more volatile to begin with, but I tuned it over the period of a year, and now it goes about its business to consistently hit annual targets. No stress, just set and forget. I'll go over this more in the next post, or dedicate a blog to this alone.
I'll wrap up for now, but in my next news post I'll cover the Football Trading software I'm presently learning how to use, and give details about my experience, along with how you can access the software yourself, as it's incredibly effective with high strike rates.
Dutch betting will also get a full mention, as I'm working on the new do it yourself new guide for this service. Also, the One Dutch itself has evolved so I need to explain more on this.
As I finish typing this post someone has just shared a Happy Easter picture with me on Whatsapp which I'd love to post here, but I'd probably lose half my membership, although the other half would fall off their chairs laughing. If you've got my Whatsapp send me a request, and I'll forward it, at your own risk.
For now I'm signing off, and depending when I get back from family visits today may have a slant blog, if not a Monday Slant. Happy holidays.
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