The Expo News 4th January


Today I'm covering Place Betting, which will be introduced to the site for One Subscription members at the end of January.

It's a service with a difference, as it creates scope to trade in play on the selections as they produce appealing in play trading opportunities, or simply invest in the place market following the advised daily bets.

Attention in play traders this could be the holy grail!

I've highlighted in green the horses that won the races, and also the BSP to In Play Lowest odds, only for horses when the odds have moved an entire point down from BSP.

This can be played a number of ways, slightly above BSP before the race jumps, or taking SP leaving the trade to be matched in running.

The majority of viable trades highlighted would comfortably achieve enough odds movement to make the trade worthwhile.

A one point in play downward movement from starting price make these attractive trades for any in play trader, locking in enough profit overall if each was matched and traded successfully. This is where decent API software comes in handy. The bot I use as my daily go to work bench for creating strategies and trading like this is Fairbot.

The Expo Bot being launched soon will I'm hoping come pre loaded with these trades each day, and offer a manual option, hint hint Mr T (the developer). Given the selections can be loaded from a daily spreadsheet with no external sourcing required, this actually should be possible.

As an example, if we traded a horse from odds of 3.0 to 2.0 with a £10 back stake, which you can see in the results is achievable, we would be trading off at 2.0 with a £15 lay stake to lock in a £5.00 profit across every outcome. Commission would of course need to be deducted here.

As a rough example though with 29 of the 37 bets placed so far meeting this criteria, it could have produced circa £65.00 total profit taking into account the losing trades.

Looking at the number of wins or horses that came close you could in fact broaden the odds range for more profit, but I just wanted to give a simple enough example as you can see this for yourself.

This is however if you decided to go down this route instead of betting the selections to place, which is equally appealing.

Betting in the place market as you can see in the results returned a similar profit at £69.05, which is using a £10 stake over the 37 bets, and with some decent odds recorded considering it's the place market.

Given these are operating in two totally different parts of the Betfair exchange, it's actually possible to do both place betting and in play trading at the same time. Which is why it would be excellent if The Expo Bot can accommodate this feature.

They don't cause a conflict of interest as one is win market based, and the other in the place market.

You can also see a fair few of these bets win and some at decent prices, whether this is a long term viable option I'm unsure, as I take a different view of my sports investing and just punting to win on horses is now almost alien to me.

At this point I feel we've a much better chance of long term success with the place bets and in play trading, but time will tell, and I could be punting to my hearts content this time next year using this data.

I source the Place Bets using data solely from Focus Ratings which is excellent in every way, and the most reliable information for the daily races across the UK and Ireland.

They also send early bird ratings service the night before, and then regular as clockwork ratings in the morning to my inbox.

I've come to rely on Focus Ratings daily for a few of my services, Trading, Dutching, and now for Place Bets, as they quickly help me decide which horses meet criteria.

I'll be adding a mini do it yourself guide to the site for the Place Bets / In Play Trades, which I'd expect to be available near the end of February / March. Within this I'll demonstrate the exact process I follow each day to find the selections.

For members of One Subscription though the advised bets / in play trades are included, and will be delivered to your inbox daily once I commence the service later this month. If you're a One Subscription member I'll send you a login with some information to get you started before going live.

I got off to a cracking start with this, hit a few losses, but rigidly sticking to selection criteria the profit pulled back with no drama and proved to be a great tool for revealing in play trading selections. Quite a surprise really, as I never expected it. We won't win all the time betting or trading, but if we've a solid foundation of data and a sensible approach to investing, we've got a definite edge and the odds for a change weighted in our favour.

I personally like both approaches using this data from Focus Ratings, as the fact I can take a horse in play with these trades will work well on days I'm pre race trading.

As the other bets are in the place market where I have no other betting or trading activity, this just opens up an entirely new income stream, and one that will ideally keep pushing the balance upward over 2019.

A target ROI for this would be anywhere circa 50% growth each for the in play trading, and place betting balances over an entire year.

If I achieve more I'll be delighted, and who knows as it's early days considering I've just scratched the surface with what's achievable using Focus Ratings.

If you're interesting in this service it will be available this month exclusively for One Subscription members as stated, with the do it yourself mini guide available asap.

Tomorrow's Expo News will focus on Dutch Betting. Results for Dutching in 2019 will be updated tomorrow ahead of the blog.

Here are the results to date for Place Betting, with the Win BSP to IP Low for horses that were trade worthy, and horses that finished 1st highlighted in green.



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ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk

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