The Expo News 23rd December
- Ryan Phillips
- Dec 23, 2018
- 17 min read
Firstly let me wish you all the very best for a lovely Christmas. Whatever you have planned I hope you have a truly great time.
I'd also like to thank each and every member of my site.
I feel lucky enough to have some personal contact with virtually every member of my site, and made some great friends. I will be in touch directly over the remainder of this month, as I want to reward your loyalty for choosing my site and services.
Today though I'm looking ahead at what we can expect for 2019 with an update on current and future services:
The Automated Dutch
All in one Expo Bot
One Subscription upgraded service
Trade Guide V4
Football Trading
Place Betting
Dutch Betting schedule for 2019
In Play Betting BETA
The Betting Bot System
Multi purchase savings.
I'll publish individual posts and update results on site over the course of this month, with detailed breakdowns covering each service listed here, and a further Expo News summarizing 2018 Exponential Betting strategies this time next week.
The Automated Dutch
This is a strategy I'm introducing as an early access stand alone product in January, you may have read about it in recent posts. It can be applied in a number of ways.
Automated Dutch betting is something I've been working on for some time, and looking at a strategy that returns a profit on each bet at circa evens or above, with a liability per bet evens or less on average.
Back testing my historical results and processing them through Focus Ratings produced the Automated Dutch that ticked the right boxes.
In the short space of time during live testing I've delivered 38.7% profit growth over 16 betting days.
The profit recorded has been achieved running the system as often as possible, and also across only daytime racing.
To put that in context it's 322 bets placed during this period. No loss recovery, with an average return as stated over evens and liability typically below evens.
It doesn't win every day, some just break even or take a dip, but you can see in a short space of time the balance has grown to a decent margin. I've mentioned I expect this to level out at circa 5% growth per week, which is still a very appealing rate of increase.
Another way to run this which also shows consistent growth with a tiny fraction of the betting exposure and less betting required, is applying a stop at a target profit each day method.
If this method was applied we'd be looking at circa 15% profit growth over the 16 days betting, which is still a very attractive proposition with a lot less risk.
You take your profit at the first target point, and you're done and dusted. Avoiding any days when the balance may increase and then hit a losing run to end on a loss. On the flip side of this scenario though you may miss a long winning run on the same day.
At this stage it's doing okay and more than double achieved using stop at a profit, but over the full year time will tell, and hence why it's in development being readied for early access.
With stop at a profit and the current growth rate we're just above the 5% per week rate of increase, which if you offered me this year on year guaranteed I'd snatch your hand off.
The numbers for both approaches are so far impressive without a doubt, giving me a lot of encouragement.
Which brings me to my next point, liquidity and how we can all benefit from this strategy.
Not only are their two very effective ways of staking with this strategy, but you have options for how to apply the template to the days racing.
If you run it over the entire day or follow a stop at a target approach, you can place the bets themselves a number of ways.
The first way is to use a betting bot, which you may or may not know Exponential Bet is having developed and built to spec. This will mean you purchase a product and it's auto loaded to the bot ready to go. You can read more on this below.
At this stage of development my go to API to create and work on strategies is Fairbot. It's kind of like my work station where I develop, test, and run new ideas.
The way I've been running the Automated Dutch is by setting up each race according to selection criteria using Fairbot, and letting it run across the day. This does take approx 5 minutes to do this.
Getting back to my original point though, if we're all doing this the same way at the same time we may hit a liquidity traffic jam.
The clever developer creating the Expo Bot has a plan for this, which is currently in testing and once the racing resumes after the Xmas break will be put through the paces.
It's potentially a genius solution dare I say, but as always time will tell and I'll keep you posted.
Another way of betting using the selection criteria for the Automated Dutch is to use BSP Multiples, which is available in most countries Betfair operate, but unfortunately not all of them.
Assuming this is an option for you, it means you would simply go race by race at the start of the day to establish the correct bet, add them to the BSP Multiples as a Dutch covering the all chosen horses, and submit the bet as single bets per race.
You're guaranteed to be matched this way and never going to be banned for winning too much regularly, as it uses the exchange side of Betfair, plus your returns will be SP on each bet. Making it pretty simple to keep track of your balance growth.
There are other ways of course using standard bookmakers, but I wouldn't recommend this.
I'm feeling positive for the Automated Dutch and its impact on all of our betting balances over the next 12 months.
If we level out at 5% per week for both betting methods returning circa 260% profit pa, then we'll end up leaning towards the stop at a profit approach as opposed to running the entire day with more exposure.
Anything there or thereabouts this predicted growth rate in 2019 and I'll be delighted.
The Expo Bot
We're fully licensed with Betfair now to introduce this new software in January, and it's starting to look pretty cool.
The fact the bot can incorporate all the Exponential Bet strategies in one is huge plus point. As some members run my strategies (as I presently do) using multiple betting bots for each system.
This can be both demanding on one system to run, if this is your set up, and costly subscribing to different bots.
You may use a VPS (virtual private server) to run the bots, so you're not having to leave your PC on all day, which you'll be pleased to know the Expo Bot will run using a VPS.
The bot itself is something I've wanted for some time and considered a few options to create it, but in October this year I was introduced to a talented developer and it became his brainchild.
He's worked through the strategies on my site figuring out how to automated them all beyond what I achieve with Fairbot and other bots.
This has all been made possible to the detriment of his family life, which I apologize to Mrs T, but the rapid pace he's created this new bot is impressive.
I'm excited to begin including the bot as part of Exponential Bet's services, being the go to bot of choice.
If you're already subscribed to different bots running various strategies, you can look forward to a simpler life.
If you're on the outside looking in and considering joining when everything is able to run through one bot, then you picked a good time to join.
ETA is January for both the In Play BETA and Automated Dutch to be launched with the Expo Bot.
Also to be included to the Expo Bot are Trading V4 strategies, with the current M1 Auto, and we will have set and forget strategies added requiring no research time.
Additionally, the football based Bet Bot System will also be given a tab to run within the bot. Along with other features and services to be included in 2019, such as Football Trading, Place Market Betting, and more besides I'm gearing up to introduce.
I'm confident in the stability of the bot, the developer, and it was important to get our licence to give you the security required when entering your Betfair account information and logging in.
It's amazing how far you can come in a short space of time, and how the people we meet along the way influence our journey to achieve goals we set ourselves.
This is precisely the impact I'm trying to have on each and every member, to be a positive part of your own journey to reach your targets via betting and trading. Making the process simpler, safer, but as we develop the site and services more profitable each year.
More info on the bot, the cost of the subscription, and how best to utilize the many features to follow soon.
Along with some screen shots of what to expect, and I'll be creating a manual with the developer to get you started, and video walk through examples showing how you set it up to use each bet and trade method.
The support will be there from day one, and it will be continuous.
One Subscription
To summarize this particular option, members receive my bet and trade products with subscription services all in one package. It's all about giving you the best possible value as opposed to buying everything individually, and making your life simpler with it under one umbrella.
I've made some improvements since adding One Subscription earlier this year, adding benefits for longer subscriptions or for continued monthly memberships.
As stated at the start of this post I'll be writing to my members with loyalty bonuses, so any One Subscription members expect an email before we wrap up December.
Additionally, any members who wish to include Automated Dutch Betting to their inclusive deal, can reserve the early access version if they subscribe to a six month or longer option now.
Trade Guide V4
On the 4th December the latest version of the Trade Guide V4 was updated for members of the service, including an automated trading method called M1 Auto. This runs using Fairbot and now also Bet Angel. With the files to import to the bots now provided to all members.
This requires a small amount of filtering to establish the trades each day, approximately 15 to 20 minutes, and then using either of the bots trades can then be set and left unattended.
It's the first step in the right direction towards fully automated trading, but in fact the M1 Auto selection process is something of real value in itself.
It can be applied manually which is demonstrated in the guide, in a variety of ways you can schedule throughout the day either in the morning, up to race time, or within the ten minute run up to the race. I've even placed the trades the evening before racing and left them to run successfully.
Utilizing just a handful of free sources, and one paid with Focus Ratings to drill down the best possible options to trade. It's possible to spend very little time each day running through this routine, and making a very decent return on your investment.
Scheduled in 2019 I'll also be including fully automated trading, and will be working with the bot developer to implement this with the Expo Bot.
As much as the current method of establishing the best trading opportunities works like a charm, I also understand time is precious and some of us don't even have the 20 minutes a day required to whiz through the step by step selection process.
Subsequently I have a list of fully automated versions to produce in the new year, bringing them to the service once thoroughly tested.
If you do have the 20 minutes available to find the selections each day, and then set the trades to run on auto pilot, all you will require is either Fairbot or Bet Angel which run the automation files on a PC.
I also recommend a subscription to Focus Ratings as an extra layer of due diligence. As the data for the days best betting options in each race is excellent.
Football Trading
I'm currently testing a few different apps and services, with a view to assess the value of including them to a football service.
Both as a stand alone product to pick up and learn everything yourself without a subscription required, also with the scope to create a bot operated option for this, which I'm leaning towards being the best option.
This will also be included with the One Subscription membership, and any trades I place sent to members to follow.
Football betting has some of the most highly liquid markets, and finding a niche to exploit is on my radar and high on my priority list in 2019.
I've been looking at correct score Dutching and some trading related options in this football market. I haven't completely written this off as when I bet I'm personally making a profit, but the biggest challenge with this is creating a service all members can benefit from, and achieve the same or similar profits.
The trading option in the match odds market and over/unders seem to be the most worthwhile to introduce, but at this stage I'm still assessing the data from the providers I've mentioned in previous posts, and need to make sure all boxes are ticked with a simple to follow step by step process in place, as stated all of us need to profit or I may as well not bother.
At this point I'm running in to liquidity issues, and also how to deliver the trading advice.
Which is why I need a bolted on selection process to make it simple for everyone to pick up and use, which can then be transferred to the Expo Bot.
I'll keep you posted.
Place Betting
The results for my live testing for place betting are below, and I'm just as surprised as you'll be when you take a look.
Place betting will be an extra service exclusively included with One Subscription, and will commence early 2019.
Nice and simple flat staking daily bets when the they apply, and just emailed to members by midday.
Liquidity will always be an issue in the place market on the exchange, so achieving the exact reported odds won't always be possible for these obvious reasons.
When I send the bets it will be just after I place them, so in fact you could be getting even better odds than I report.
You can use whatever source you like to place them each way or in the place market on the sports book, but obviously bear in mind if you win too much with a bookie you know what happens.
The fact the bets are being sent by midday latest whenever bets apply will make it easier for you to get matched though.
You'll notice from the results table published below I've a 100% strike rate so far, which is as stated surprising to me as well.
I sourced the data for this from Focus Ratings to establish the strategy, and went through their available online historical ratings resource they have for members. It's a vast amount of information if you're willing to spend a bit of time digging, and still amazes me it's so well archived.
On a side note here, Focus Ratings are launching a new site soon which will enable you to paper test strategies using the data on the site, it's very clever and I'll be publishing more info on this soon.
You may also notice I've recorded the win position of the horses, BSP odds, and lowest in running available price, as over time may show even higher returns as a direct back to win or trade in running service.
The Trade Guide V4 due diligence using Focus Ratings creates more successful trades, the selections that stand out as trades do have a high win rate, or at least put in a good performance. Which is shown with the results of these place bets.
As stated in an early post I've just scratched the surface with what's possible using Focus Ratings, and as I uncover little gems I'll share them going forward with my members.
At launch for this One Subscription add on I'll include the win, in running, and place results, backing all three options to test the value over time.
Dutch Betting
Advised bets sent to Dutch betting members each day will be split in to two strategies from January.
One Dutch is the way of placing a Dutch bet using the BSP Multiple section of Betfair, and this will focus on the big money racing.
The staking will be adjusted in line with the quality of the racing, and my confidence in the available betting options.
Instead of having different Dutch multiple bets based on these different factors, ie Value and Fearless Dutch, we'll have just one for all the combined race BSP Multiple bets, but with varying stake advice.
This will be detailed in the getting started and Dutch Guide PDF before the end of this month.
Top 2 Dutch betting began in December, and will continue now as the second half of the subscription service.
The same staking advice will apply to this approach to Dutch betting, with the percentage to bet detailed in the daily emails.
What has been acknowledged over the past two years with Dutch betting in this way is one simple fact, racing is seasonal and requires a different investment approach for the varying periods throughout the year.
Which means the staking needs to reflect the type of racing we're involved in, as does the type of Dutch bet being placed.
All Dutch betting members will now have a better chance of capitalizing on the racing that historically has always returned more of a profit, while protecting the balance more over the periods we need to tread more careful.
Going forward we'll have One Dutch and Top 2 Dutch bets to cover the years subscription based bets, and I expect these to create twice as much profit in a fraction of the time.
Obviously there is no way to automate bets placed using BSP Multiples so these will need to be placed manually, with the advised bets sent at the same time as the current set up by midday six to seven days a week.
One Dutch will be once or twice a week typically during the bigger meetings, with the Top 2 Dutch running most days.
The Dutch Singles have had to be paused due to the fact I need the exchange time to run the Automated Dutch, and it's impossible to do too much at once.
I'll revisit the concept of the Dutch Singles again in the future, but as the Automated Dutch is creating a steady impressive profit it makes sense to focus on this and dedicate the exchange time.
I've two Betfair accounts I can operate, with two PC's and a laptop running different software, with plans after Xmas to begin using a decent VPS service.
There is only so much time in the day and resources available to me at this moment, but once the Expo Bot is up and running on a VPS I'll have more opportunity to extract extra value from my strategies.
In Play Betting BETA
I began running the In Play Betting BETA strategy in March and it looks destined to wrap up the year at circa 80% profit growth, after showing potential to hit 100%. Still a decent growth rate in a short space of time.
Since adding the Auto Load with the Bet Engine, members have been able to run this in play betting system by simply loading the bot and selecting activate.
The Expo Bot is programmed with the same Auto Load feature but with a faster refresh time to give us more chance of matching in play bets.
Results for Expo Bot in comparison have been positive, where TBE may have missed a few bets stretching the betting process to reach a profit point, Expo Bot has in most cases matched more bets.
Another aspect of this BETA betting system is the selection criteria, which I've been drilling down the filters aiming improve the strike rate.
Automated Dutching is a completely different system, but what stands out in comparison to In Play BETA is the run of the days betting not having as much drawdown, and taking as long to recover a run of losses. Also more success at stop at a target profit.
The overall profit growth for each is very different, along with the staking and a whole host of factors, but the point I'm making is that if I run In Play BETA over a day every day as I can do with Automated Dutching, in play is more likely to take a nose dive and it does rely on the run of early winners to keep increasing the balance.
With Automated Dutching the stop at a profit growth is a lot faster due to the fact it handles the days betting a lot better with more overall success.
This means that for In Play BETA to be more successful, bearing in mind when I reach a full year in March 2019 we may be at 100% ROI which is excellent and on target, but to do a lot better the run of the days bets needs to operate at a higher strike rate.
We need the tools to be matched faster and an improved selection process to win more races on the days when it takes longer, or at worse most of the time minimize a loss / break even.
I've a few potentially controversial options in mind to achieve this, which I'll be creating a social media closed discussion group for all members to give their input.
Another point to note with In Play BETA is that if you're looking to run Automated Dutching, or fancy In Play Trading using the Place Betting advised bets, or even backing to win, then you're going to encounter exchange based conflicts of interest.
Other than advising to get your better half to open an account for you to use as I've done (ssssh), you will possibly need to make some decisions.
I've covered below multi purchase plans options in the pipeline, and will be working these out based on potential cross over issues with different systems.
Also if you're a current member of in play and want to use a new strategy, I always offer my existing members a fair discount on more purchases, so between us we'll figure it out.
The Betting Bot System
The Betting Bot strategy that just ticks along nicely in the background, currently using Betsender to place the bets, but Expo Bot will take over this job and fully automate the selection process, albeit taking just a few minutes at the moment.
The biggest benefit of this strategy is that it can handle huge sums of money, the liquidity is high in the football market it operates, and always has a lot of interest in the games selected.
For those looking for a steady balance grower that you can throw a larger invest at, and see approx 20% increase pa, this is an option I'd strongly suggest considering.
It's not complicated, it's even something you've possibly already thought of but never stuck to over time to see the benefit. The staking is something built in to Betsender which we'll be keeping when transporting to Expo Bot, as it just works.
I'll always use this strategy with a larger investment, as when it loses it just levels out the loss and recovers steadily to a new profit over time. I've minimal input other than resetting and carried loss when I don't need to recover it as I'm in profit already.
Other than this it's just a case of entering the bets on each applicable day, which isn't every day, and watching my investment build over time.
The latest update I posted earlier this year just stripped everything down to go here and do this, step by step instructions with no grey area.
When the right bets need placing on days you want to run the bot it's obvious, and other than having the football schedule loaded in your browser via one of the many sites available, Flashscores being the one I use, you've no external research or drilling down to do, just checking the games apply for the teams listed in the guide, then entering them to the bot and clicking start betting.
It's often the simplest things that are the most effective, and in this instance with the Bet Bot System this is very much the case if you're looking to match big numbers.
Multi Purchase Savings
If you're interested in any of my other services and looking at more than one purchase, then you'll be pleased to read I'm creating plans that allow you to mix and match for a reduced price.
Not only this, but I'm going to lay out the strategies that combine well, and set some investment targets for each.
I use my own bet and trade advice towards my own goals, and get asked often enough how I diversify my money across each strategy.
Presently I switch between them depending on exchange availability and with what I want to do on any given day, or run across multiple markets.
As explained I'm looking to simplify my own set up, and with the advent of the Expo Bot to make everything even easier, it's a perfect time to look at how members can use the bot daily to best effect.
After Xmas I'll put time aside to work through this, and create some plans to solve the problem of what to can run at the same time offering some value to members looking to use multiple services at once.
Additionally, I'll be writing to members with loyalty rewards for those who've been with me for a while, or already purchased a selection of products to create individual plans that benefit you.
I'm on it as they say...
Summary
Well, congrats for getting to the end of this post, my longest news update yet.
You're obviously someone with an obsession about making money from sports betting and trading like myself.
Everything listed above will begin materializing on the site and in the blog up to the end of this month, and into early next year.
If you've any questions about any of this please let me know, and I'll get back to you asap.
Have a cracking Xmas.
Ryan
Comments