The Exponential Bet results will be updated this week, sorry they are taking longer.
The reason is, I want to update them all onto one or two spreadsheets that a laid out to include more useful information that is accessible in a much easier way.
In the same way I have done with Portfolio Bet to include combined betting strategies that work very well together for Exponential Bet members, with everything in one place, and also to add the extra variance levels for MTP compared to BSP.
I just need two or three days as the results output for Exponential Bet is a bit more complicated than Portfolio Bet.
Before I get to today's update, I have some good news for anyone looking to join Portfolio Bet, as we will be taking on new members for a short period this week.
If you are thinking of joining this will be your chance, as the doors will be shut for future memberships for an unforeseen amount of time. Possibly for good.
I will take the member capacity up to 50%, which I have previously mentioned it may remain at this level to maintain betting integrity.
I can't see me wanting to add new members after this level is reached, which will mean any future openings will be if there are one or two occasional unexpected opportunities to join.
If you haven't already registered to receive an invite, you can do so by visiting the Portfolio Bet homepage here: https://www.portfoliobet.co.uk/
Simply enter your email when the pop up prompts you, and as soon as the invites go out you will be on the mailing list to receive one.
Now, on to today's post.
The results were updated yesterday and are available to view here: https://www.portfoliobet.co.uk/results
Additionally, the two Portfolio Bet results spreadsheets are now available to download at the base of today's blog, or you can find them on the result page above.
In today's blog I dive into part 2 of the Portfolio Bet strategy breakdown.
I mentioned in my previous blog this one would be mainly data driven, and that is very much the case.
You will find details of how each strategy performs individually over the full reported betting period, over the last 12 months for MTP and BSP, with a look at the most recent betting month, and within the downloads themselves each day of the week with all strategies in operation.
In addition to this, you should notice I added extra stats to each tab on the two spreadsheets and screenshots now included.
You have an at a glance record showing points and drawdown as before, but now it includes total bets, wins, losses, strike rate, return on investment (ROI), average odds, along with winning and losing days.
This means you can look at everything combined and see how it all operates, and also look at just the past twelve months year to date, or even the past month of betting to see what to expect with wins and losses.
The result data is a lot more fleshed out now, giving you information on how the betting can perform short and long term, and what the winning and losing days look like over each tab filter, as well as what kind of bet volume to expect.
All very useful given you're putting your money into an automated portfolio betting service. Now you have a much better idea of how things can go up, down, and back up again over time.
I'll be adding to this and expanding on the result data even more, but this is plenty for now, as I don't want to do information overload.
You can take as much from the result information as you need, or just leave it to do what's it's programmed to do, and just keep tabs of your own records.
I will continue to provide this data each month should you wish to follow it regularly, or have it here as a point of reference for whenever you may want to look at it.
Let's begin by looking at the latest result update for Minutes to Post and BSP betting from the 1st to 30th April 2024.
Minutes to Post
BSP (Betfair Starting Price)
Quite an interesting month overall showing a very positive start, followed by a series of very near misses with the betting, the difference between profit and loss which is represented by a drop off in form shown halfway through into the graph, but then followed by an excellent run of winning bets across the board to end in profit.
This brought us to a close betting MTP with +34.29 points, and for BSP +16.85 points.
You can see that even with a spread of 15 winning days and 13 losing days for MTP, we still returned a healthy monthly profit, and the same for BSP, with more losing days than winning, but still finishing in profit over the month.
However interesting and useful it is to have the monthly result data, and identify trends over time with some months doing better than others, the bigger picture with Portfolio Bet is to return decent average annual profits, so let's take a look at how April's numbers affected the year to date for MTP and BSP.
Results below covering from May 20223 to April 2024.
Minutes to Post
BSP (Betfair Starting Price)
What we have overall is a very close set of results if opting for MTP or BSP.
Identical strike rate, more winning days than losing, more losing bets than winning, and almost the same average odds.
The drawdown is also virtually the same for both bet types, which is no surprise given they are betting the same selections, but with a different approach to the lay betting, and how all the bets are matched to Betfair Starting Price.
The losing lays betting exchange straight MTP will lose more than fixed liability BSP betting, but win more in virtually every instance.
While the BSP bets will win less than MTP, but of course have less liability as that is fixed to stake, so overall if the strategies are successful this will almost balance out, and the results shown with all operational back this up.
Fixed stake will be more profitable, but it comes with the greater liability on each bet required, which is why the lay bets are capped at odds that are not too high.
If you're new to Portfolio Bet, BSP is betting fixed stake for backing, but for laying fixed liability, which is according Betfair's BSP laying rules.
A BSP bet is the guaranteed Betfair start price, as otherwise known as SP with traditional bookmakers.
The advantage of betting with BSP selected as opposed to MTP (Minutes to Post), is that you do not have to deal with the odds variance.
MTP bets direct to the betting exchange at approximately one minute to post time, which means the odds will move for each member.
What is recorded here in the results will be in some cases, and for some bets, what each member achieves, but overall it will have the variance of betting to the exchange, so your member bets will differ to published.
This could mean overall you will still do better than BSP, and that makes it appealing of course, also because published results show higher margins, but you may not do better if you have a higher than average level of losing lay bets that are matched higher than recorded odds, or lower odds on the winning back bets compared to published results.
It is something you need to factor into your own decision making when coming to select either BSP or MTP. It has to be accepted, and not something that can be questions later against the results.
Variance with MTP when betting exchange straight is par for the course. It can work for you, or against you in certain situations.
Have a look at the results, the odds, and how they fluctuate over time, and make an informed decision for what is right for you.
You also need to factor in the minimum staking levels required for laying in your country. This is vitally important.
Before deciding to choose BSP, you must know the minimum bet size required in your country for a BSP lay bet, and then calculate the exchange rate, ie the amount of UK pounds to your required local country currency amount for your minimum stake size.
This will ensure you will be matched on both the backing and always a higher amount lay bets if using BSP.
As an example, it is now at time of writing this blog post £1 minimum stake for back bets if using BSP, and £10 minimum liability for lay bets, in the UK.
This would mean that if you're in the UK and want to use BSP with Portfolio Bet, you would have to select a minimum stake amount of £10 to be covered on all back and lay bets triggered by Portfolio Bet.
I hope this is clear, but any questions on this please let me know. If you're outside the UK it is best to contact Betfair in your country to confirm what your minimum stake size is for betting BSP if backing and laying.
Laying is always higher than backing though, so that is the information you really need.
However, as you can see from the longer term view of results with the year to date, there is very little difference in performance if opting for BSP, which makes it a very appealing option.
It avoids any variance with reported results, as there will always be some, and over the long term your profit returns will be very similar to MTP, if not better.
My advice would be, if you are betting at the level of your countries minimum BSP required levels for laying, I would personally use BSP.
If you are looking to bet under this level, then MTP betting allows any amount as small as 0.01, but I would be weary of advising you bet this low, given Betfair have a habit of banning longer term use if betting tiny amounts.
The minimum Betfair bet size if using their site is £1, so I'd say that is a good minimum amount if you're looking to start low and build up.
If we continue to have the form shown over the YTD figures above, you would still clear your membership, and be close or thereabouts to doubling your money, if betting Betfair minimum stake.
Which would mean all going to plan, you can then reinvest with a higher amount in year two and build up.
Just a suggestion, as it's completely up to each member how they manage their investment and stake amounts, and fully in their control to login and make any adjustments on the fly.
Before I move on to the overall performance, I will t some point soon also add a variance chart, and show how much difference I record using another Betfair account I have that is set up to place portfolio bets using MTP.
In simple terms, the difference between what I am getting as a user of Portfolio Bet with MTP selected. compared to what is shown with the minutes to post reported results.
I'll let this run for another month, and then breakdown the published odds vs my own, and I'm sure this will help you see what's possible betting MTP compared to MTP.
As a point of reference, so far since we began live member betting on the 13th April, I am up approximately +27 points with this MTP betting account, at the time I am sat down right now writing this blog.
More on this to follow though, as I know it will definitely be useful for members opting for MTP to see examples of expected variance.
Moving on to the overall performance, here are the results covering the period 1st December 2020 to 30th April 2024.
Minutes to Post
Betfair Starting Price
Overall a very solid and consistent line of balance growth for both MTP and BSP.
There is obviously a wide variance with the reported returns, but of course this does not factor in the variance members encounter if opting for MTP.
The reality of the betting could be closer to each other, and we will explore this in more detail in a future blog post, but of course MTP I would predict would still be a higher returning option.
However, you do also need to factor in the higher liability on the lay bets, which I know from conversations with members some of you are not comfortable with at all, and one of the primary reasons why you opted for BSP.
We have more winning that losing days though for both options, and a very strong strike rate with solid ROI.
It's a lot of betting activity to assess considering it's such a long period, which only adds weight and validation to the consistency of the selection filters in operation.
I was intending to look deeper at the days of the week within this post, but I think I've covered a lot already today, and I don't want to overdo it with information.
I'll save this for another blog update instead, and leave you to explore the extra tabs within the downloadable spreadsheets that include the days of the week.
The sheets below both show the total results for MTP and BSP, but one covers each individual strategy included, and the year to date numbers.
Whereas, the other spreadsheet also has the totals, but covers the days of the week performance running all strategies for both MTP and BSP, along with the previous month activity shown above in this post.
The days of the week are useful to examine, as you will see a pattern of popular betting days with much more volume, and other days which are of course quieter.
If you're someone who likes to watch the racing and track the betting, this may be of particular interest to you.
I'll leave today's blog update here, but be back with part 3 in this series later this month.
If you have any questions please get in touch, and I will come back to you as soon as possible, hello@portfoliobet.co.uk
The two available spreadsheets to download are included below, and also available on the results page.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan
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